THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From Madagascar’s new military president to fresh turmoil in Mongolia’s government, it’s been a busy 24 hours in global politics.

Trump’s latest remarks on Hamas, a new Putin–Trump call, and a deadly attack on Pakistani troops also made headlines overnight.

Usually, most are discussing Ukrainian strikes on Russia, but today we’re taking a look at the damage Russia is doing to Ukraine’s energy sector.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Madagascar military leader Colonel Michael Randrianirina sworn in as President
Colonel Michael Randrianirina was officially sworn in as Madagascar’s president today following a military coup that ousted Andry Rajoelina. Ceremonial fanfare accompanied his inauguration, during which he declared that all government institutions would be dissolved except for the National Assembly and announced a military-led transitional rule for up to two years. The move has drawn swift condemnation from the United Nations and African Union, both demanding a return to constitutional order.
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2. Mongolia’s leader ousted after 4 months in ruling party feud
Mongolia’s Prime Minister Zandanshatar Gombojav has been ousted by parliament just four months into his tenure, following a bitter ruling party feud with Speaker Amarbayasgalan Dashzegve. He came into power in June, but his inability to maintain party unity led to the parliamentary vote that removed him. Observers warn the instability could delay critical decisions like passing the national budget, just as teachers and medical workers pressure the government over unpaid wages.
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3. Trump threatens to ‘go in and kill’ Hamas if group doesn’t stop killing in Gaza
Trump warned Hamas in a social media post that “if Hamas continues to kill people in Gaza … we will have no choice but to go in and kill them,” accusing the group of violating terms of the ceasefire. He later clarified that U.S. troops would not be sent into Gaza, suggesting instead that regional actors under U.S. auspices could take action. His remarks represent a sharper tone and raise the spectre of escalation if violence persists.
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4. Putin held meeting of top officials following call with Trump
Putin convened a meeting of Russia’s Security Council following a recent phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump, according to the Kremlin. During the session, Putin briefed top officials on the details of the conversation and confirmed that the two leaders have agreed to hold another summit focused on the war in Ukraine. The gathering shows how Russia is treating its dialogue with Washington as a matter of strategic national security.
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5. Suicide attack kills 7 Pakistani troops near Afghan border
A suicide attack on a Pakistani military camp in North Waziristan, near the Afghan border, killed seven soldiers and injured 13, security officials confirmed. The attack involved a militant ramming an explosive-laden vehicle into the camp’s boundary wall, while two additional attackers attempted to breach the facility and were shot dead. The strike came amid a fragile ceasefire between Pakistan and Afghanistan, highlighting how quickly tensions can reignite along the disputed frontier.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

THE ATTACKS ON UKRAINIAN ENERGY

Russia has shifted the trajectory of its missile and drone campaign, focusing increasingly on Ukraine’s harder-to-defend energy infrastructure. More than 160 attacks have been recorded in the past month alone. We’re drawing this information from an excellent Financial Times report, which we’ve linked below. While both sides are targeting each other’s energy infrastructure, their motives differ. Ukraine aims to undermine Russia’s soft power by striking oil and gas exports and raising the domestic cost of war. For Russia, the timing is deliberate – as winter sets in, millions of civilians will rely on gas, and Moscow’s goal is to deepen war fatigue across Ukraine.

The main statistics
The damage is staggering. Since the start of this new air campaign, 60% of Ukrainian gas production has been disabled. Before October, Ukraine needed around 13.2 billion cubic metres of gas for winter and planned to import another 4.6 bcm, already more than in previous years. But the latest wave of Russian strikes has changed everything. Officials now warn that Kyiv may need to purchase an additional 4.4 bcm of gas before March (nearly a fifth of the country’s annual consumption) at a cost of around $2.2 billion. 

Even in February 2025, Ukraine was already facing a critical gas shortage as Russian strikes continued to attack its energy infrastructure. With gas reserves in underground storage nearing critically low levels, Ukraine’s ability to meet daily consumption (between 110 and 140 million cubic metres) in winter had become severely strained. Most storage sites are located in the west, while the main production hubs lie in the east, both under frequent attack. To compensate, Kyiv had ramped up gas imports to around 16.7 million cubic metres per day, sourcing 7.6 mcm from Hungary, 7.3 mcm from Slovakia, and 1.8 mcm from Poland.

Main Issues
Ukraine’s air defences are stretched to their limits. With Patriot systems and heavy Western weaponry unlikely to arrive soon, Kyiv is relying on limited stockpiles while waiting for Europe’s air defence production lines to scale up and deliver. We’ve seen expensive AA systems near Sumy which suggest stretched limits of AA for Ukraine. Furthermore, most AA is based around key cities such as Kyiv. “Homemade” options have had some success like repurposed AA guns, old Soviet single-engine fighter jets, and the newest of them all – interceptor drones. Interceptor drones have shown promise, especially around Kyiv, where they’ve successfully taken down incoming drones. But testing and mass production will still take some time. 

Secondly, as we have mentioned before, the advantage Russia retains is the capacity to launch large salvos of ballistic and cruise missiles, enabling it to inflict far heavier damage on Ukraine’s energy grid than Ukraine can currently deliver against Russian infrastructure. The continuous attacks on Russian energy sites delay repairs but are not critical, these strikes on Ukraine are concentrated enough to knock out entire sites for some time

Any Solutions?
It’s clear that Ukraine will need to import more gas to get through the winter, but that’s becoming increasingly complicated. Last winter, two of its three main import partners (Hungary and Slovakia) weren’t openly at odds with Kyiv. Now, both countries are angered by Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy sites that supply their own fuel, creating new political friction just as Ukraine’s energy crisis deepens.

Which is why a major focus of the upcoming meeting between Zelensky and Trump is expected to centre on securing an energy deal. With Russian strikes continuing to devastate Ukraine’s power and gas infrastructure, Zelensky is looking for long-term guarantees to stabilise the country’s energy sector ahead of winter. President Trump, meanwhile, has repeatedly highlighted the billions in untapped value tied to Ukraine’s minerals and natural resources. This is leverage Zelensky may now seek to use as a bargaining chip to attract investment and support.

Closing Comment
As we’ve said before, an OSINT account named Vitaly described this conflict best — as a war of hope. Neither side has the strategic capability to decisively defeat the other on the battlefield; instead, both are betting on exhaustion. Each is trying to erode the other’s morale and will to fight, piling on war weariness in the hope that eventually, one side breaks first.

Sources:
Sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.
FT Article: https://www.ft.com/content/2ade480c-012c-47d9-8dde-85022756697c

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(October 17, 1979): Mother Teresa awarded Nobel Prize

On this day in 1979, Mother Teresa, founder of a Roman Catholic order of women dedicated to the poor and particularly to the destitute of India, was named the recipient of that year's Nobel Prize for Peace.