THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

It’s been another busy start to the week on the global stage, with protests, diplomacy, and political upheaval all making headlines.

In Madagascar, demonstrations have reignited despite the president dissolving his government, while in France, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has stepped down after less than a month in office.

Meanwhile, U.S. domestic politics took a legal twist with a judge blocking the deployment of National Guard troops to Portland, and Israeli-Gaza diplomacy saw new movement in Egypt-backed talks.

In today’s deep dive, we take a look at Africa’s most powerful military and the close relationship it continues to develop with Russia.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Anti-Government protests resumed in several Madagascar cities on Monday
Anti-government protests resumed Monday in several cities across Madagascar for a third week, with demonstrators calling for President Andry Rajoelina’s resignation, Reuters reports. The unrest, originally triggered by prolonged power and water outages, has evolved into broader discontent over poverty, corruption, and the government’s failure to address basic services. Police used teargas in the capital Antananarivo, and clashes were also reported in cities like Toliara and Diego Suarez, even after Rajoelina dissolved his government in response to the crisis.
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2. French PM Sebastien Lecornu resigns after less than a month in role
French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned less than a month into his term, in what has become one of the shortest premierships in modern French history. His resignation came just hours after revealing his cabinet, which critics said looked almost identical to his predecessor’s and lacked the promised political renewal. Lecornu blamed partisan deadlock and the unwillingness of other parties to cooperate, leaving President Macron to chart the next move amid a fraught political landscape.
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3. Federal judge temporarily blocks any deployment of National Guard to Portland
A federal judge in Oregon has temporarily blocked the Trump administration from deploying National Guard troops to Portland, ruling that protests there do not justify such a military intervention. The order was granted after legal action from Oregon and Portland officials, who argued that the proposed deployment would violate state sovereignty and constitutional limits on domestic military use. The decision underscores growing tension between federal authority and local control during the ongoing debate over federal responses to civil unrest.
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4. Swiss, Spanish flotilla activists allege ‘inhumane detention conditions’ in Israel
Swiss and Spanish activists from a flotilla aiming to deliver aid to Gaza have accused Israeli forces of “inhumane detention conditions” following their deportation. Among the claims are sleep deprivation, a lack of food and water, physical abuse, being locked in cages, and insults during their processing and transport. Israel has denied the allegations, saying detainees had access to necessities and medical care, and that legal rights were fully respected.
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5. Israeli and Hamas officials meet in Egypt on a U.S. peace plan for Gaza
Israeli and Hamas representatives are meeting in Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh for indirect talks on a U.S.-backed peace plan aimed at ending the Gaza conflict, with early focus on ceasefire terms, prisoner-hostage exchanges, and partial troop withdrawals. The U.S. delegation includes envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and both sides have tentatively accepted parts of the framework. While the meetings raise hopes of a breakthrough, sticking points remain over disarmament, governance in Gaza, and trust on both sides.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

Algeria: The North African Powerhouse

In the shadow of North Africa’s deserts, Algeria quietly stands as one of the most powerful military forces on the continent. Despite its low public profile, the country commands one of Africa’s largest defence budgets and maintains an enduring, strategic alliance with Russia that stretches back decades. As global eyes remain fixed on Europe and the Middle East, Algiers and Moscow continue to strengthen an axis built on arms, training, and shared geopolitical calculus.

A Strategic Relationship Forged in the 2000s
The cornerstone of the modern Algeria–Russia partnership was laid in 2001, when the two nations signed a Strategic Partnership Agreement, the first of its kind between Moscow and an Arab or African state. This deal formalised a relationship that had already been nurtured during the Cold War, when the Soviet Union armed the newly independent Algeria. Two decades later, the bond remains anchored in military cooperation.

By the mid-2000s, Algeria had become one of Russia’s top three arms clients. Between 2016 and 2020, it accounted for roughly 15% of Russia’s total weapons exports, and from 2018 to 2022, 73% of Algeria’s arms imports came from Moscow. Algeria’s air power, armoured divisions, and integrated air-defence systems all bear Russian fingerprints.

A Modern Arsenal Built in Moscow
Algeria’s military power ranking (23rd globally and the highest in North Africa) is underpinned by a massive investment program. In 2025, its defence budget reached US$23.5 billion, equal to around 6.7% of GDP, eclipsing regional neighbours like Egypt and Morocco.

The Algerian People’s National Army (ANP) fields an estimated 130,000 active troops with an additional 150,000 reserves and 180,000 paramilitary personnel. On the ground, it deploys hundreds of T-90SA and T-72 main battle tanks, along with BMP-1/2 infantry vehicles and BTR armoured carriers. At sea, its fleet includes eight Kilo-class submarines, German-built MEKO A-200 frigates, and a growing number of modern corvettes, enough to dominate the Western Mediterranean’s southern coast.

In the skies, Algeria’s air fleet has long depended on Russian manufacturing. The Su-30MKA, a variant of the Su-30 built specifically for Algeria, forms the backbone of its air superiority capability. It’s supported by MiG-29M/M2 fighters and Su-24 strike aircraft. The country’s layered air defence network combines S-300PMU2, Pantsir-S1, and Tor-M1 systems, among the densest in Africa.

The Su-57 Leak and Moscow’s New Offer
In October 2025, reports emerged from a leaked Russian defence document suggesting that Algeria had placed an order for 12 Su-57 stealth fighters and 14 Su-34 strike aircraft, with components to be delivered between 2024 and 2026. If confirmed, this would make Algeria the first foreign customer of the Su-57, Russia’s most advanced fifth-generation jet.

The leak, reportedly originating from Rostec, surfaced alongside claims of Su-35 exports to Iran and Ethiopia, a sign that Moscow is turning to trusted non-Western partners as Western sanctions bite. While unverified, the story fits a broader pattern: Russia’s increasing reliance on Algeria not just as a buyer, but as a diplomatic and strategic foothold in Africa.

Beyond Trade: Strategic and Political Symbiosis
Algeria has played its cards carefully in the shifting geopolitical landscape. During the Ukraine war, it maintained neutrality (refusing to condemn Russia at the UN and rejecting Western sanctions) yet it has simultaneously preserved economic ties with Europe, particularly through gas exports. In June 2023, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune visited Moscow, where he signed an Enhanced Strategic Partnership with President Vladimir Putin, expanding cooperation in energy, agriculture, and military technology.

By September 25, 2025, the partnership had moved into its next phase. General Saïd Chanegriha, Algeria’s army chief, hosted Dmitry Shugaev, the head of Russia’s Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, in Algiers. Official statements described the talks as a reaffirmation of “historic ties,” but sources close to the meeting hinted at new maintenance and training deals, a vital necessity as Russia’s defence industry strains under war-time demand.

Russian Soft Power
These weapons deals are important economically, but also as a form of soft power for Russia. Continuous buyers show to hesitant countries that dealing with Russia is possible regardless of western exclusion. This comes at a time when many have been questioning the Russian-Iran alliance. There had been talks of a SU-35’ deal with Iran since 2007 that had stalled several times — due to sanctions (officially, at least). Now, this leak now shows a large deal worth over $6 billion for the purchase of 48 advanced models of SU-35’s for Iran. Now it’s all on Russia to deliver these systems to their economic allies.

One of the articles referencing the leak:
https://www.aeronewsjournal.com/2025/10/irans-su-35-fighter-jet-order-exposed.html

Sources:
Sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

TWEET OF THE DAY

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(October 6, 1973): The Yom Kippur War begins:

On this day in 1973, Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israel during the Jewish holy day of Yom Kippur, sparking a 19-day war that reshaped Middle Eastern geopolitics.