Are We Seeing A Ground Operation In Iran Soon? New Offensive In Sudan

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Geopolitics isn’t slowing down today: Iran is pushing back on claims of talks with the U.S. after strikes were reportedly delayed, while Russia and Vietnam are moving ahead with a major nuclear power project.

Meanwhile, the EU and Australia have finally sealed a long-awaited free-trade deal, a deadly rocket attack has hit Kurdish Peshmerga forces in Iraq’s Kurdistan region, and Denmark heads to the polls in a tight election.

In terms of our deep-dives, today we cover the possible land operation over Iran and a new operation on the Sudanese-Ethiopian border.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Iran denies talks with US after Trump postpones strikes
Iran has denied any negotiations with the United States after Trump said planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure were postponed following what he described as productive discussions. Tehran officials rejected those claims, calling reports of talks “fake news” and insisting no direct or indirect negotiations had taken place. The exchange comes amid escalating conflict in the region and ongoing military pressure, with tensions continuing to impact global energy markets.
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2. Russia, Vietnam agree deal on nuclear power plant construction
Russia and Vietnam have signed an intergovernmental agreement to cooperate on building the Ninh Thuan 1 nuclear power plant, marking a major step toward establishing Vietnam’s first nuclear energy facility. The project is expected to include two Russian-designed reactor units with a combined capacity of about 2,400 megawatts and will be developed with Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom. The move comes as Vietnam looks to strengthen its electricity supply and energy security after previously suspending nuclear plans in 2016 and reviving them in recent years.
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3. EU and Australia sign free-trade agreement
The European Union and Australia have signed a long-awaited free-trade agreement after nearly a decade of negotiations, aimed at deepening economic ties and expanding market access between the two partners. The deal removes or reduces many tariffs on goods and is expected to boost trade, while also helping both sides diversify supply chains and strengthen cooperation in sectors such as critical minerals and services. Alongside the trade pact, the two sides also agreed to a new security and defence partnership to increase collaboration on areas including maritime security, cyber threats and broader strategic challenges.
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4. Rocket attack kills 6 Kurdish Peshmerga fighters in Iraq’s Kurdistan
A rocket attack on a Kurdish Peshmerga base north of Erbil in Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region killed at least six fighters and wounded more than 20 others, according to security and Peshmerga sources. The strike took place overnight and authorities said it was not immediately clear who carried out the attack, with investigations ongoing.
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5. Denmark votes in close election today, outgoing PM tipped to win
Denmark is holding a closely contested parliamentary election, with opinion polls suggesting Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen remains the favourite to retain power despite tight margins. The vote will determine all 179 seats in parliament, and coalition negotiations are expected as neither bloc is projected to secure a clear majority. Key campaign issues have included the economy, immigration, welfare spending and foreign policy, with results expected shortly after polls close.
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GLOBAL CONFLICT TRACKER

Iran-USA-Israel
U.S. officials have allegedly told the Washington Post that the U.S.–Israeli campaign against Iran is shifting toward control of the Strait of Hormuz and key energy infrastructure, rather than regime change or fully dismantling Iran’s nuclear program. Reopening and securing the strait is seen as critical to stabilising global energy markets and preventing further economic disruption. Officials increasingly believe earlier ambitions were unrealistic, and instead view limiting Iran’s regional leverage as a more achievable goal. By weakening Iran’s control over the strait, the U.S. could de-escalate while claiming strategic success, reducing Iran’s deterrence and constraining its ability to threaten future energy flows.

Firstly, I am not too sure how much the Israelis agree with this shift. But nonetheless, it is telling that the conflict has gone from regime change to ending the closure of the  Strait of Hormuz – which ironically was a consequence of starting this war. 

And we’re now entering the “troops on the ground” phase of this conflict. A significant U.S. military airlift is underway from bases across CONUS to the Middle East, with at least 35 C-17 flights recorded since March 12 and 11 more en route. Aircraft have departed from key Army and Air Force hubs including Fort Stewart, Fort Bragg, JBLM, Fort Campbell, and NAS Oceana, indicating a joint-force deployment. And as GeoInsider has said, most outbound C-17 flights are tied to rapid-deployment units, including the 3rd Infantry Division, 82nd Airborne, and 101st Airborne. Additional movements from JBLM and key logistics hubs highlight a coordinated buildup, combining combat forces with command, aviation, and sustainment elements for scalable operations.

For flight information Source click here

Primary destinations include Ovda Air Base in Israel and multiple sites in Jordan, including King Faisal Air Base and King Hussein International Airport. The scale and distribution of these movements suggest a sustained reinforcement effort, expanding U.S. operational capacity across the region as tensions continue to escalate. And if you’re thinking this is just interceptor replenishment, the source has already stated none of these bases have interceptor systems – this is much bigger. U.S. force posture in the region continues to expand, with two Amphibious Ready Groups deployed, including the USS Boxer and USS Tripoli, bringing thousands of Marines forward. Total troop presence now exceeds 50,000. The 82nd Airborne has been placed on alert, with rapid deployment capability within hours. Carrier presence remains strong, with USS Abraham Lincoln active and USS Gerald R. Ford (Greece) nearby, alongside over 150 aircraft and naval assets, and indications of a third carrier preparing. The buildup points toward operations focused on securing the Strait of Hormuz and limited strikes on key Iranian targets. 

Now you may be asking, what about Trump’s five-day pause on energy strikes? This should be taken with caution. The President claims progress in talks with Iran, yet Iranian officials deny any such engagement. Trump’s past pattern of pairing negotiation rhetoric with subsequent strikes makes him an unreliable signal in this context. The timing also raises questions. The expected arrival of the USS Tripoli, USS New Orleans, and roughly 2,200 Marines from the 31st MEU in the Middle East aligns closely with this “pause,” suggesting it may be less about de-escalation and more about positioning ahead of potential next steps.

Sudanese Civil War
RSF and SPLM-N forces have launched a coordinated offensive on the strategic border town of Kurmuk in Sudan’s Blue Nile State, opening a new and potentially consequential front in the war.

Fighting is ongoing across multiple axes, with reports of clashes in Jurut and surrounding areas. SPLM-N claims its forces have overrun Sudanese army positions, seizing weapons and forcing elements to withdraw toward Ed Damazin. Control of nearby towns remains fluid, with positions changing hands over recent days.

What makes this development more significant is the growing regional dimension. Sudanese officials accuse Ethiopia of directly facilitating the offensive, alleging that vehicles and support elements moved through Ethiopian territory to enable the attack. This aligns with longer-term reports of Ethiopian training links with RSF elements, often tied into broader UAE-backed networks. And for added mention, Kurmuk itself is not just another town. It sits on a historically contested corridor and has been a focal point of conflict for decades, making it both symbolically and strategically important.

From a wider perspective, the opening of the Blue Nile front has clear implications. It forces the Sudanese Armed Forces to divert resources away from core theatres, stretching an already pressured military. At the same time, the proximity to South Sudan introduces another variable, with its relationship to RSF remaining murky but potentially influential.

Sources available upon request

TWEET OF THE DAY

“No f*****g fighting!”

TODAY IN HISTORY

(March 24, 1882): Robert Koch introduces germ theory

On this day in 1882, Robert Koch gave a lecture at the Berlin Physiological Society where he introduced the basis of germ theory. He announced that he had discovered the bacterium that caused tuberculosis, a disease responsible for 1 in 7 deaths across Europe and the U.S. at the time. This meant Koch had upended the two prevailing theories of the time: spontaneous generation and miasmatic theory. During the meeting, Koch showed dyed tissue samples of the bacteria he had grown, and he published his findings a few weeks later. His work plays an important role to this day in identifying the microorganisms linked with diseases.