THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

A busy mix of political shake-ups and diplomatic manoeuvring around the world overnight. From major protests in Mexico to a sweeping asylum overhaul in the UK, several governments are under pressure to rethink how they handle security and migration.

Energy and nuclear diplomacy were also in focus, with new gas cooperation in Europe and Iran again questioning the U.S.’s readiness for serious talks.

Today we provide an update on the Ukraine front, where Ukraine continues to commit to Kupiansk, as the south continues to fall.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Protesters rage against Mexico’s government over corruption and violence
Thousands of protesters, led by young people from Generation Z, took to the streets in Mexico City and other cities to denounce rampant corruption, violence and impunity following the killing of Michoacán mayor Carlos Manzo. The demonstrations turned confrontational: some protesters tore down barriers around the National Palace and clashed with riot police, who responded with tear gas. Many marchers issued a stark warning to President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government, accusing it of failing to curb crime and protect public officials while calling for sweeping political change.
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2. UK to end ‘golden ticket’ for asylum seekers in huge policy overhaul
The UK government is set to abolish what it calls the asylum “golden ticket”, refugees will no longer automatically gain indefinite leave to remain or family-reunion rights. Under the reforms, refugee status will be temporary (around 30 months) and must be regularly reviewed, and settlement will only be granted to those who “earn it” through work, English, and community contribution. Support for asylum seekers will become discretionary, not automatic, stripping some of housing and welfare benefits.
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3. Ukraine, Greece reach deal on new gas route, Zelensky says
Ukraine and Greece have agreed on a new gas-supply route, President Zelensky announced, aimed at securing additional energy imports ahead of winter. The deal includes nearly €2 billion in financing from European and Ukrainian banks, backed by European Commission guarantees.
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4. Iran says US is not ready for ‘equal and fair’ nuclear talks
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said this week that the United States is not ready for “equal and fair” nuclear negotiations, accusing Washington of using diplomacy as a façade for pressure. He reiterated that Iran is open to talks, but only under conditions of mutual respect, demanding reciprocal trust-building measures such as sanctions relief. Araghchi warned that any agreement must preserve Iran’s right to enrich uranium, stressing that diplomacy forced by coercion would be meaningless.
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5. Ukraine seeks to bring home 1,200 prisoners in Russia talks
Ukraine is pushing to revive a prisoner-exchange deal with Russia that would bring 1,200 Ukrainian captives home, according to President Zelensky and his Security Council chief. Negotiators say discussions are underway in Turkey and the UAE, with plans to return the prisoners around Christmas and New Year. The effort is tied to the Istanbul agreement from 2022, a framework that has enabled several big exchanges, but previous rounds have frequently stalled amid renewed fighting.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

Three Main Frontlines Updated

Kupiansk
Russian forces continue to make incremental gains inside Kupiansk, particularly in the eastern and southeastern sectors. After securing several high-rise blocks, Russian infantry expanded south toward the main highway, taking additional low-rise residential areas and entering the eastern industrial zone. The Kupiansk Railway Station is now under Russian control. South of the city, Russian units widened their push toward Sadove, advancing from the Yuvileynyi high-rise district into neighbouring low-rise areas.

Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, are conducting local counterattacks aimed at slowing and disrupting the Russian advance. These actions are focused on the eastern residential zone, the industrial sector, and grey-zone pockets stretching toward the market and central districts. Ukrainian troops are also attempting to infiltrate the western residential areas where Russia has not yet fully consolidated positions. Outside the city, Ukrainian forces have resecured Kurylivka, while Pishchane remains contested. The overall situation remains fluid, with neither side achieving full control of Kupiansk’s urban terrain.

Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad
Over the last 48 hours, Russian forces have continued their westward push from Pokrovsk toward the M-30 highway. In the northern sector of Pokrovsk, Russian infantry has reached the edges of the dacha areas, indicating that Ukrainian forces no longer maintain firm control over any part of the city’s northern perimeter.

More importantly in Myrnohrad, Russian units have advanced through the northern districts, securing new areas of Damanskyi and the 8th District. They have also taken the Railway Car and Locomotive Depot near the former Novator Mine, tightening pressure on Ukrainian positions. On the southern side of the city, Ukrainian troops have withdrawn through the Ozyorka cemetery as Russian forces expanded their foothold.

Additionally, Russia has captured Sukhyi Yar, a village just south of the main suburbs of Mrynohrad. This suggests that Ukrainian troops have either been eliminated or have retreated into the main suburbs of the city for better defensive positions. Lastly, Russia is reportedly regaining ground in central Rodynske amid ongoing heavy fighting. 

Pokrovske-Hulyaipole
Russian forces have continued their rapid advance along the Pokrovske–Hulyaipole line, achieving notable gains across multiple sectors. In the northern area, Russian units secured full control of Danylivka, effectively severing the Pokrovske–Hulyaipole road. They also pushed west along the treeline ridges south of the settlement and began probing toward Radisne. Additional advances were recorded west and northwest of Zlahoda, where new treeline positions were taken.

South of this area, Russian troops expanded their control after taking Solodke and entering Rivnopillya, advancing more than 3 km along elevated treelines to the southwest. Rivnopillya and Yablukove were fully captured after two days of fighting, with Russian forces moving further west toward the rear approaches of Hulyaipole. Further southwest, following the fall of Yablukove, Russian units pushed along the high ground toward Zatyshshya, bypassing Vesele and nearing its eastern edge. Additional gains were made northeast of Vesele and east of Vysoke, with multiple treelines secured.  It seems Ukrainian units are repositioning near the river that is adjacent to the highway, given that Russia continues to simply leapfrog from village to village with little resistance.

Sources:
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(November 16, 1988): Election of Bhutto as Pakistan's prime minister

Benazir Bhutto, elected prime minister of Pakistan on this day in 1988, became the first woman in modern history to lead a Muslim country, serving as prime minister from 1988 to 1990 and again from 1993 to 1996.