THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From high-stakes diplomacy in China to political earthquakes across Africa and Europe, today’s headlines capture the shifting tectonics of global affairs.

Albanese arrives in Shanghai to juggle economic charm with regional tensions, while Iran treads carefully between nuclear oversight and national security. Elon Musk stirs fresh controversy by calling on Trump to release the Epstein files, Ghana’s ruling party consolidates unprecedented power, and Slovakia scrambles to secure its energy future amid Russian sanctions.

In our deep dive, we offer an insight into the geopolitical paralysis Australia is heading towards, as time for a clear-cut decision on China is running out.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Albanese lands in ‘wonderful’ China with pitch to lure tourists.
Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese touched down in Shanghai on Saturday for a six-day mission to Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. He’s set to meet President Xi Jinping, attend a high-profile business roundtable with mining executives from Rio Tinto, BHP, and Fortescue, and champion tourism under a refreshed “Come and Say G’Day” campaign. The visit comes as Canberra seeks to balance economic interdependence with growing regional security concerns over military developments in the South China Sea.
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2. Iran says it will work with IAEA but inspections may be risky
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi confirmed that Tehran will continue cooperating with the U.N. nuclear watchdog but with added caution and oversight. While a law passed by Parliament requires that any inspections at bombed nuclear sites receive approval from the Supreme National Security Council, Araqchi stressed that this isn’t a blanket ban; each request will be evaluated individually. He argued that safety concerns must be addressed before inspectors can enter damaged facilities. This delicate balance reflects Iran’s effort to maintain access to international oversight, while safeguarding its damaged nuclear infrastructure and reasserting control over how external inspections are conducted.
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3. Elon says ‘Trump should just release Epstein files as promised’
Elon Musk has publicly urged former President Trump to “just release the Epstein files as promised,”, emphasising his frustration with Trump’s repeated references to Epstein while offering no transparency on the documents. Musk accused the administration of withholding potentially explosive material and reignited calls from MAGA figures like Steve Bannon for full disclosure. The demand deepens a growing rift within the Trump-aligned camp, underscoring how the unresolved Epstein saga continues to haunt U.S. politics.
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4. Ghana’s ruling party cements power with super-majority win
Ghana’s ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) has secured an overwhelming super-majority with 183 of 276 seats, leaving the New Patriotic Party (NPP) with just 88 seats - an influential two-thirds control of Parliament. Newly appointed Majority Leader Mahama Ayariga assured citizens that this dominance wouldn’t be misused, emphasising consensus, inclusivity, and accountability in the new legislative session.
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5. Slovakia seeks deal on Russian gas and sanctions by Tuesday
Slovakia is pushing to seal a deal by Tuesday with the European Commission and fellow EU states to secure protections before ending Russian gas imports, as part of its conditional approval for the bloc’s 18th sanctions package on Russia. Prime Minister Robert Fico has demanded political guarantees that Slovakia won’t face disproportionate harm, such as surging prices or legal action over its Gazprom contract, before lifting its block. His stance highlights the tightrope between enforcing sanctions and safeguarding national energy security in a region still heavily reliant on Russian gas.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

Australia’s Strategic Paralysis in the Indo-Pacific

Australia’s strategic positioning is increasingly at odds with regional realities. Despite intensifying pressure from the United States to clarify its position on a Taiwan contingency, the Albanese government continues to project institutional ambiguity. This lack of clarity is not merely diplomatic hedging; it signals a broader absence of a durable, long-term national security framework. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s assertion that any commitment to conflict would be made by “the government of the day” illustrates the absence of a bipartisan defence doctrine, problematic in the face of accelerating strategic timelines.

While the U.S. maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity in the Indo-Pacific, there is a clear commitment to deterring China both publicly and within defence sector spending. And now, after NATO has agreed to a 5% defence spending agreement, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and Undersecretary Elbridge Colby have called on Australia to clarify its stance and increase its defence spending toward 3–5% of GDP. Yet Australia remains on track to only reach 2.4% by 2033–34. Well beyond the window in which a Taiwan conflict is projected to become most likely (analysts argue it may be as soon as 2027).

Australia's strategic inconsistency is amplified by its economic reliance on China. In 2023, China absorbed $219 billion worth of Australian exports (32.5% of the national total), while cumulative Chinese investment reached $88 billion. This interdependence complicates Australia's dual ambition of being the U.S.'s most dependable Indo-Pacific ally while maintaining robust economic ties with its primary strategic competitor.

Key issues:

The central issue remains the absence of a long-term defence doctrine. Prime Minister Albanese’s statement that any commitment to conflict would be made by “the government of the day” reflects a lack of strategic continuity—an approach that contributed to delays and complications in Australia’s submarine acquisition program. Domestically, both major parties face the challenge of aligning increased defence spending with public sentiment. Many Australians remain skeptical of large-scale military investment due to factors such as disillusionment from protracted conflicts, cultural assimilation issues not fitting with a wider united Australia view, and perceptions of domestic underinvestment in health, infrastructure, and cost-of-living pressures. Compounding this is the structural tension in Australia's strategic posture: nearly one-third of national exports are tied to a country that may soon be treated as a primary security adversary.

The Australian Defence Force faces systemic issues of recruitment shortfalls and as some argue national lack of patriotism.New incentives have not stemmed enlistment declines, and the broader population shows weak cultural alignment with military service, compounded by skepticism in general about the “establishment” as discussed above.

Lastly, Another Defence innovation and procurement remain highly centralised and risk-averse, with small firms often locked out of the process due to cost, timelines, and bureaucratic burden. Thus, it is no wonder that it’s largest ally is attempting to force an answer out of Australia.

Recommendations

1. Articulate a Long-Term, Bipartisan National Defence Strategy
   Australia must establish a standing bipartisan defence doctrine anchored in shared risk perception and regional deterrence. It should inform procurement, industrial planning, and AUKUS participation while ensuring continuity of policy beyond electoral cycles.
   

2. Shift from Symbolic Defence Spending to Functional Capability
   Accelerate investment timelines to reach 3% of GDP by 2027. Prioritise asymmetric capabilities such as ISR, drones, and electronic warfare, and establish a procurement accelerator modelled on the U.S. Replicator Initiative to support mass deployment of rapidly upgradable systems.
   

3. Redefine Defence Industry Strategy: Empower the Private Sector
   Enable broader SME participation, streamline contracting through flexible acquisition models, and create superannuation-backed venture capital funding mechanisms to support dual-use innovation. Canberra must accept managed risk as a necessary condition for modern defence capability.
   

For years, Australia has sought to maintain its position as both a reliable U.S. ally and a leading economic partner of China, a dual-track strategy that was sustainable while conflict remained hypothetical. But with credible timelines suggesting a potential Taiwan contingency within this decade, time is no longer a luxury. Strategic ambiguity, delayed investment, and bureaucratic inertia are no longer tolerable. Australia must now decide whether it is prepared to meet its own defence obligations—or simply hope others will.

Sources:

Butler, Josh. “Australia Rebukes Calls to Commit to Joining Hypothetical US-China Conflict.” The Guardian, July 13, 2025. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jul/13/australia-rebuffs-calls-to-commit-to-joining-hypothetical-us-china-conflict.

Canales, Sarah Basford. “Albanese Responds to US Push for Huge Rise in Spending.” The Guardian, June 1, 2025. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jun/01/albanese-responds-to-us-push-for-huge-rise-in-spending.

Carnegie Asia Program. Alliance Future: Rewiring Australia and the United States. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2024.

Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT). “Doing Business with China.” Accessed July 14, 2025. https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/in-force/chafta/doing-business-with-china/doing-business-with-china.

Greene, Elizabeth. “Australia’s Army Is Suffering from a Crisis of Identity and Confidence.” The Strategist, March 19, 2024. https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australias-army-is-suffering-from-a-crisis-of-identity-and-confidence/.

Harris, Liam. “Defence Recruitment Shortfalls, Culture and Patriotism Are Back in the Spotlight—But the Criticisms Miss Some Key Points.” Defence Connect, May 7, 2024. https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/geopolitics-and-policy/15467-defence-recruitment-shortfalls-culture-and-patriotism-are-back-in-the-spotlight-but-the-criticisms-miss-some-key-points.

PwC Australia. “Funding for Business to Strengthen Australia's Defence Industry.” PwC, 2024. https://www.pwc.com.au/pwc-private/r-and-d-gov-incentives/tax-incentives/funding-for-business-to-strengthen-australias-defence-industry.html.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Was the assassination attempt a key event in Trump winning the presidency race?… Interestingly, not a lot of people replying to the tweet seem to agree.

TODAY IN HISTORY

(July 13, 2024): Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, survived an assassination attempt after a gunman opened fire during a campaign event in Pennsylvania; the former U.S. president suffered a wound to his ear.