THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Today’s briefing takes us across a wide mix of developments, from U.S. strategy in Ukraine to Israel’s preparations in Gaza.

Leaders are weighing their options, North Korea is lashing out with sharp words, and Xi Jinping is making only his second visit to Tibet as president. Meanwhile, Uganda is pushing back on migration rumours, keeping the record straight.

Today we explore the Azerbaijani-Russian relationship once more with more information, from airstrikes to espionage.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Trump says US may provide air support to back a Ukraine peace deal
President Trump confirmed on Tuesday that while the U.S. will not deploy troops on Ukrainian soil, it is open to providing air support as part of a ceasefire or peace arrangement to help stabilise the situation. This pledge follows Monday’s White House summit, where Trump and European leaders discussed security guarantees to push toward ending Russia’s invasion. While European allies appear ready to put boots on the ground, Washington’s contribution would come from the skies, setting up a delicate balance between support and restraint.
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2. North Korea dismisses South Korean president’s ‘gibberish’ ahead of US summit
North Korea ramped up its rhetorical defence ahead of South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s first summit with President Trump, with Kim Yo Jong dismissing Lee’s outreach as “gibberish” and accusing him of harbouring a “dual personality” by seeking peace while hosting joint military drills with the U.S. She blasted South Korea as a “faithful dog” to Washington and declared its diplomatic gestures insincere and offensive. Despite these harsh comments, Seoul says it remains committed to a path of peace and cooperation, even as regional fault lines deepen.
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3. Uganda has not reached any agreement with the U.S. to take in illegal immigrants yet
A senior Ugandan Foreign Affairs Ministry official, Okello Oryem, made clear on Wednesday that Uganda has not reached any deal with the United States to accept illegal immigrants, emphasising that the country lacks the necessary infrastructure and facilities to accommodate them. The clarification came in response to reports that the U.S. was exploring deportation agreements with third countries like Honduras and Uganda. In short, the rumours are just that, there’s no migration pact in place.
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4. China’s Xi makes second-ever visit to Tibet as President
Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Lhasa on Wednesday for his second-ever visit as China's leader to mark the 60th anniversary of the Tibet Autonomous Region, a symbolic gesture underscoring Beijing’s ongoing integration efforts and regional influence. His prior trip to Tibet as president was in July 2021, and this year's visit comes amid broader regional diplomacy, including simultaneous talks in India led by China’s top diplomat Wang Yi.
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5. Israel to call up 60,000 reservists for Gaza City invasion
Israel is preparing to launch a major offensive against Gaza City, announcing that 50,000 reservists will be called up while stressing that ground combat will primarily be carried out by active-duty personnel. These reservists are expected to receive call-up notices shortly, with reports suggesting they will begin reporting for duty in September as part of the broader military escalation. This mobilisation marks a significant gearing-up for what could be one of the most intense phases of the conflict in Gaza's largest urban centre.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

Opportunists in the Crossfire: Azerbaijan
Part 1 (Next is Hungary)

Geopolitics is never one-dimensional, and the Ukraine-Russia conflict is the perfect example. When someone not well-versed in geopolitics asks, for instance, “Can you explain this conflict between these two states?”, it’s hard not to turn it into a two-hour lecture. There are so many layers: shifting alliances, overlapping interests, and conflicting goals. Azerbaijan’s current positioning in the Ukraine-Russia conflict is one of those complex situations we will tackle today.

Azerbaijan: A Realignment
We’ve covered the deteriorating relationship between Russia and Azerbaijan before, but for those not caught up:

The accidental downing of an Azerbaijani passenger airliner by Russian forces in late 2024 was a catalyst for Baku’s pivot westward. Since then, Moscow has arrested Azerbaijani-linked figures in Dagestan on charges of organized crime tied to Baku’s intelligence, while Azerbaijan retaliated by detaining Sputnik staff accused of espionage. President Ilham Aliyev’s rhetoric has sharpened, stressing defiance and resistance to pressure, a shift from his earlier pragmatism.

For years, the two maintained a cautious balancing act: both competing for influence in the Caucasus and both as major fossil fuel exporters. But with Moscow distracted in Ukraine and unable to assert itself in its traditional sphere during the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, Ankara deepening its backing of Baku, and Yerevan leaning westward, Azerbaijan saw an opportunity.

Did the civilian deaths in the downed airliner trigger a genuine emotional shift for Aliyev, or did he seize the moment to realign with the West, who he believes offers more than war-weary Russia? Either way, the logic is clear: Europe is desperate for alternatives to Russian fossil fuels.

Involvement In The Ukraine Conflict:
Kyiv has long imported Azerbaijani gas through the Bulgaria–Romania–Ukraine route. While Russia’s strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure escalated, this corridor was initially left untouched, likely to avoid damaging relations with Baku. But that restraint ended after the tit-for-tat arrests: Russia struck a gas processing and storage facility on Ukraine’s Romanian border that housed Azerbaijani gas. At the same time, Baku announced it would begin producing NATO-calibre 122mm and 155mm artillery shells, long a critical shortage for Ukraine’s arsenal.

Recent Attacks:
Just 48 hours ago, Russian Geran-2 drones struck Ukraine’s Odessa region, hitting a rail station and a SOCAR-operated fuel terminal, days after another SOCAR oil depot in Orlivka was damaged. SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state oil company, runs critical energy infrastructure across Ukraine, making repeated strikes a serious concern for Baku.

In response, Aliyev condemned the attacks and issued a warning: if Russian strikes on Azerbaijani-linked energy assets continue, Azerbaijan may reconsider its self-imposed ban on supplying weapons to Ukraine.

Espionage:
Romania recently declared a state of emergency after rejecting 92,000 tons of Azerbaijani oil contaminated with organic chlorides, with another 92,000 tons still undelivered. The shipment, routed through Turkey’s Ceyhan port, was blocked before reaching OMV Petrom’s Petrobrazi refinery. Similar issues have been reported by BP and Italy’s Eni SpA, with traces detected as far as the Czech Republic via the TAL pipeline. The contamination stems from the use of chlorides in extraction, which damages refining equipment.

The scandal threatens Azerbaijan’s credibility as a reliable energy supplier at a time when Europe is scrambling to diversify from Russian oil. Both Romanian and Azerbaijani officials have publicly claimed foreign interference. Romanian media sources suggested the contamination may have been the result of a relatively simple Russian sabotage—injecting chlorides at any point along the 1,700-kilometer (1,056-mile) pipeline stretching through Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, and Romania.

Final Thoughts And Broader Scope:
The technological advances, the interconnectedness of today’s geopolitical landscape, and the decline of rigid Great Power dominance now mean that smaller, resource-rich states can throw their weight around against traditionally stronger militarized powers. Azerbaijan is a prime example: once a peripheral republic of the USSR wedged in the Caucasus mountains, it has grown into a resource-rich nation with significant regional influence. The same can be said of Qatar in its own context. With Russia strained and war-weary, Baku no longer feels compelled to submit to its former master in Moscow, a shift made possible only by its modernised military and strong economy.
What we are witnessing is a Great Power in the classical sense struggling to hold on to a time that has long passed. The same pattern is visible in China and Iran, natural adversaries to Western democratic internationalism. These three state actors seek to reassert multipolarity: where Great Powers exert influence in their “traditional” regions and expect smaller nations to fall in line. This is not a critique of multipolarity itself, but rather a deeper explanation of why these frictions persist between Western-aligned states and those seeking to challenge them.

Sources:
References available upon request. A full citation list has been omitted to preserve the visual integrity of the page.

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(August 20, 1940): Trotsky Assassinted

Leon Trotsky, the exiled Russian revolutionary and key architect of the Bolshevik Revolution, was assassinated in Mexico City by a Stalinist agent, Ramón Mercader. Trotsky, long a rival to Joseph Stalin, had been living in exile after his expulsion from the Soviet Union. His murder, carried out with an ice axe, eliminated Stalin’s most prominent critic and symbol of opposition, cementing Stalin’s uncontested grip on Soviet power.