THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From nationwide protests in the U.S. and mass displacement on Pakistan’s northwest frontier to a fresh document dump reviving the Epstein saga, today’s headlines span unrest, secrecy and accountability.

We’re also watching rising tensions at sea in the South China Sea and a tentative humanitarian opening as Israel prepares to reopen Gaza’s Rafah crossing.

In Today’s deep dive, we examine the energy war between Ukraine and Russia, their asymmetric strike capabilities, and the uncertain prospects of the energy ceasefire.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Anti-ICE protests take place nationwide following fatal shootings in Minneapolis
Thousands of people across the United States took to the streets on Friday in coordinated demonstrations against U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and federal immigration enforcement tactics, calling for a “national shutdown” of work, school and shopping in protest of the deaths of two U.S. citizens shot by federal agents in Minneapolis. The protests, under slogans like “Stop funding ICE” and “ICE Out of Everywhere,” included marches, business walkouts and rallies in cities such as Minneapolis, New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and San Francisco, as well as student walkouts and community actions.
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2. Tens of thousands flee northwest Pakistan over fears of military operation
Tens of thousands of residents have fled the Tirah Valley in Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, with more than 70,000 people displaced amid fears of an imminent military operation against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) after mosque announcements urged civilians to evacuate by late January. Locals and officials said the warnings triggered a mass exodus in harsh winter conditions, even as Pakistan’s Defence Minister denied that a full-scale offensive was planned and attributed the migration to seasonal movement. Many of those who fled are now registering for aid in nearby towns such as Bara, and relief infrastructure is strained as long wait times and food shortages compound hardships for the displaced population.
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3. Fresh Epstein files reference Trump, Gates, Musk, former prince Andrew and Lutnick
The U.S. Department of Justice has released over 3 million pages of previously undisclosed documents related to late financier Jeffrey Epstein, including images, videos and emails that reference a range of prominent figures such as Donald Trump, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, tech entrepreneur Elon Musk, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and former Prince Andrew. These materials were published under the Epstein Files Transparency Act and represent the largest tranche of investigative documents yet made public. The files contain various forms of correspondence and references but do not constitute verified evidence of wrongdoing by the individuals named, and many entries are heavily redacted or lack corroboration.
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4. China conducts naval, air patrols near disputed Scarborough Shoal
China’s military conducted naval and air patrols around the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea on Saturday, with the Southern Theater Command saying the operations were part of increased “combat readiness” and aimed at countering what Beijing called provocations by other countries. The shoal lies well within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, which Manila insists it controls, but China also claims sovereignty over the feature and surrounding waters under its broader territorial claims.
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5. Israel announces plan to reopen Gaza’s Rafah crossing on Sunday
Israel announced that it will reopen the Rafah border crossing between the Gaza Strip and Egypt on Sunday, the first sustained opening of the key gateway in nearly two years of closure amid the ongoing conflict. The Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) said the move will allow limited movement of people in both directions under the supervision of European Union personnel. The reopening is part of the second phase of a U.S.-brokered ceasefire plan agreed last year, which Israel had said would proceed only after the remains of the last Israeli hostage were recovered earlier this week.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

Blackouts Hit Ukraine As Energy Ceasefire Begins — Unofficially

Context
With the coldest winter in many years, there has rarely been a larger or more obvious target than energy infrastructure in both Ukraine and Russia. The effects of these strikes have become so severe that both sides discussed an “energy ceasefire” during recent talks in Abu Dhabi.

Who Has the Upper Hand?
At the moment, the situation is uneven. Both sides have the capability, but one side has significantly bigger guns — something we have discussed before.

Ukraine has conducted a consistent and effective campaign against Russian oil and gas infrastructure, gradually shifting its focus toward the broader energy sector. While these strikes complicate Russia’s logistics and revenue streams, they are not fatal blows. Ukraine’s approach relies heavily on long-range, smaller drones capable of striking soft, flammable targets such as oil depots and gas storage facilities — infrastructure that is relatively easy to penetrate and difficult to defend.

What Ukraine has lacked is large-payload, long-range weapons capable of inflicting decisive damage on hardened targets such as power plants and weapons factories. This is why you see President Zelensky’s repeated push for Tomahawk cruise missiles and advanced European strike systems.

The domestically produced Flamingo FP-5 was intended to fill this gap. So far, it has not. The platform has proven slow, inaccurate, oversized, and produced in limited numbers. If it were effective, we would be seeing far more of it in use.

Russia’s Energy Campaign
In 2025, Russia adopted a coordinated missile and air campaign targeting Ukraine’s most critical (and most vulnerable) energy infrastructure. The effects were substantial.

First, the campaign further exposed Ukraine’s air defence shortages, a point Zelensky frequently raises. Second, Ukraine’s home front is geographically closer to the battlefield than Russia’s, making Russian strikes easier to plan and execute. Third, Russia possesses a broad strike toolkit: cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, hypersonics, and hundreds of drones.

Ukraine has resorted to ad hoc defensive measures, sandbags, HESCO barriers, anti-drone netting. These can stop dozens of drones, but they are ineffective against ballistic and cruise missiles.

Human Impact and Repair Burden
To understand the scale of damage, consider reporting from the Kyiv Independent. Residents in one of Kyiv’s hardest-hit apartment buildings describe adapting to prolonged winter power and heating outages caused by repeated Russian strikes. In the Rusanivka district on the city’s left bank, families endure freezing temperatures, damp apartments, and daily disruptions to basic life. Many rely on car batteries, generators, and improvised heating as mould and condensation spread. Despite exhaustion, residents describe a grim normalisation — “we are all used to this now.”
Read Here

Like Russia, Ukraine must repair infrastructure only to see it hit again — but Ukraine’s repairs are far more complex. A recent strike in Odesa reportedly caused “colossal” damage to a key energy facility, triggering prolonged outages and compounding the national electricity crisis. Crucially, this facility had already been targeted multiple times in recent weeks.

The Ceasefire
Donald Trump claims Vladimir Putin agreed to a one-week suspension of attacks on Kyiv after a direct request citing extreme winter conditions and humanitarian concerns. The proposed pause focuses on an “energy ceasefire,” halting strikes on power, heating, and water infrastructure as temperatures fall below –20°C.

President Zelensky welcomed the proposal but stressed that implementation remains unverified, noting Russia has continued daily strikes on energy facilities. The idea reportedly emerged during US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Abu Dhabi as a confidence-building measure amid stalled negotiations.

Ukrainian intelligence, however, warned of planned large-scale Russian missile and drone attacks, and Moscow has yet to publicly confirm any ceasefire. According to AMK, the truce was expected to take effect as of yesterday, with indications that planned weekend strikes may have been cancelled, though the situation remains fluid and unconfirmed.

Just as we write this a major power grid shutdown has occurred in Ukraine.
https://x.com/EuromaidanPR/status/2017547476979306929

Sources
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Tsk tsk tsk Bill Gates…

TODAY IN HISTORY

(January 31, 1949): First daytime soap opera appears on television

On this day in 1949, a daytime soap opera first appeared on NBC. Written by radio storyteller Irna Phillips, These Are My Children was unsuccessful and went off air just a month after it first appeared. However, Phillips was undeterred, going on to create television shows that ran for more than half a century, such as Days of Our Lives and Guiding Light.