THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

It’s another packed day in geopolitics, with diplomacy, defence, and deterrence all colliding at once. From Washington and Moscow edging back to the negotiating table, to Taipei opening its wallet and NATO jets scrambling over Eastern Europe, today’s headlines underscore just how tense the global security picture remains.

We’re also keeping an eye on military growing pains in the UK and a major new push in U.S. missile defence.

In today’s deep dive we’re analysing the leaked texts from both Witkoff-Ushakov and Ushakov-Dmitriev.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Kremlin confirms US envoy Witkoff to visit as Trump eases peace plan deadline
The Kremlin has confirmed that Steve Witkoff will travel to Moscow next week to meet Vladimir Putin. The visit comes after U.S. President Donald Trump backed away from his earlier self-imposed Thanksgiving deadline for Ukraine to accept the 28-point peace proposal, calling it “fine-tuned” instead and signalling more time may be needed for negotiations. The Kremlin’s confirmation and renewed diplomatic push underscore Washington’s continuing efforts to salvage a deal, even as the peace plan remains controversial in Kyiv and among European allies.
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2. Taiwan President says he will propose extra $40 billion in defence spending
Lai Ching-te said he will propose a supplementary defence budget of US$40 billion over several years to boost the island’s military capabilities. The additional funding is designed to ramp up arms purchases, including precision-strike missiles and a proposed new air defence system dubbed “T-Dome” and aims to raise total defence spending to 3.3 % of GDP in 2026, with a long-term goal of reaching 5% by 2030. Lai described the move as essential to safeguarding Taiwan’s sovereignty and democratic freedoms in the face of ongoing military and political pressure from China.
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3. UK Army pauses use of Ajax vehicles after soldiers incur health issues following training
The British Army has temporarily paused use of its new Ajax armoured fighting vehicle after around 30 soldiers fell ill during a training exercise on Salisbury Plain, reporting symptoms related to noise and vibration. The suspension, ordered by the Ministry of Defence (MoD), will last two weeks while a safety investigation is carried out.
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4. Pentagon advances Golden Dome missile defence with new Space Force contracts  
The Golden Dome missile-defense initiative advanced significantly this week as the U.S. Space Force awarded multiple prototype contracts for space-based interceptors and supporting systems, marking the first tangible contracts under the project. The contract winners include major defence firms such as Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, Anduril and True Anomaly, all competing to build interceptors and fire-control systems capable of detecting and destroying missiles in space. The initial awards, though modest, set the stage for future contracts as the Pentagon works toward its vision of a layered homeland missile defence shield.
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5. NATO scrambles jets as Russian drones make deepest incursion into Romania
NATO scrambled German Eurofighter Typhoon and Romanian F-16 fighter jets after two Russian drones breached Romanian airspace, the deepest incursion (over 100 km) and first daytime breach since the war began. One drone managed to return to Ukraine, while the other crashed in Puieşti, about 70 miles from the border; Romanian authorities said the unmanned craft was unarmed and likely went down due to fuel exhaustion. The incident has renewed calls within NATO for stronger drone-defence systems and reinforced air-policing patrols along the alliance’s eastern flank.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

It Gets Worse For Witkoff.

Updated Context
Another day in the circus, it seems. Bloomberg has obtained leaked transcripts of phone calls between Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and two senior Kremlin figures — Putin’s senior foreign-policy adviser Yuri Ushakov and adviser Kirill Dmitriev. Two separate conversations surfaced today: one between Witkoff and Ushakov, and another between Ushakov and Dmitriev.

On a funnier note, Kirill immediately panicked and claimed the recording was fake. Then Ushakov casually threw him under the bus hours later, saying the audio had apparently leaked through WhatsApp.

Witkoff - Ushakov 14th October
The first part of the phone call starts with Ushakov congratulating Witkoff on the Gaza peace deal before suggesting Ukraine-Russia should be next. He then asks if it would be a good idea for both “bosses” to talk. The main scandal here is that it appears Steve Witkoff is advising Yuri Ushakov on the best way Putin could win over Trump during talks about Ukraine. In this lens, it looks like Witkoff is coaching the Russians to a favorable peace deal.  And the funny, and slightly depressing, part is that the advice boils down to flattering the president as much as possible. Witkoff suggests praising Trump as a peacemaker and framing the talks around a plan modelled on the Gaza proposal, which Trump admires. And remember, this phone call takes place around the implementation of the Gaza Trump peace plan.

If I was to play devil's advocate: Is advising your adversary on the best way to flatter your own President bad/inappropriate in political terms? Without a doubt. But we have to see Witkoff and Trump for what they are — businessmen who see transactional friendships. Through that lens, this can also be interpreted as an attempt to simply get a peace process moving. Witkoff knows both Trump and Putin, and he may be trying to hammer home to the Russians that talking tough won’t work if they actually want something from Trump.


But, it’s overall a very bad look for Witkoff.
Witkoff first hypes the idea up with lines like “you know what would be amazing” and “what if, what if,” clearly trying to sell the concept. He then tells Ushakov, “because you know I have the deepest respect for President Putin,” before explaining why it would be smart to say that he and Yuri had discussed a Russia-Ukraine version of Trump’s Gaza peace plan. The subtext is hard to miss: Witkoff knows that if he is tied to the proposal, Trump is far more likely to back it. It’s not the type of excited tone you think would be happening between Russian and American officials.

Another big item not discussed is Witkoff’s insistence that they arrange a call with “the boss” (Putin) before Zelensky arrives at the White House on Friday. Why is this important? Trump is heavily influenced by whoever speaks to him last. And if we remember, during last month's Zelensky-White House visit, Trump had a phone call with Putin and the meeting was not too good for Zelensky. 

Dmitriev - Ushakov 29th October
The leaked phone call between Yuri Ushakov and Kirill Dmitriev offers a rare window into how Moscow is trying to shape emerging peace proposals while keeping its fingerprints off the final product. Dmitriev pushes a strategy of handing an informal Russian position paper — a framework reflecting maximalist Russian preferences — to the Americans. This tracks with what we saw early on: a proposal built around heavily Russian maximalist terms. He stresses he will pass it to U.S. intermediaries “informally,” signalling that Moscow aims to influence the structure of the upcoming Trump-era peace plan without formally endorsing any part of it. And this is exactly what we saw, a very unusual silence from Moscow officials in the early days of the leak. 

Ushakov, however, is notably cautious. He is willing to let this informal draft circulate, but repeatedly highlights the potential risks: that Washington might adopt parts of Moscow’s proposal while publicly denying any Russian input, or worse, claim Moscow agreed to concessions it never endorsed. His tone throughout is guarded, almost defensive, underscoring fears that the Americans “might twist it later” or insist it was “agreed with us.”

Ushakov and Trump’s Comments After Leaks
Yuri Ushakov brushed off Western reports about leaked calls with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Kirill Dmitriev, saying he speaks with Witkoff often but won’t reveal their discussions. He suggested the leaks are meant to disrupt slowly improving U.S.–Russia relations, confirmed Witkoff is due in Moscow next week, and denied Russia was behind any leak, saying “someone’s listening — but not us.”
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Trump said he hasn’t heard the reported audio of Steve Witkoff “coaching” Russian officials, but called it normal negotiation behaviour. He framed Witkoff’s role as selling terms to both sides — convincing Ukraine of some points and Russia of others — and described the leaked claims as typical give-and-take in deal making, not unusual or improper.
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Sources:
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

Read Witkoff-Ushakov transcript here:

Read Ushakov-Dmitriev transcript here

TWEET OF THE DAY

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(November 26, 1942): Premiere of Casablanca

Casablanca premiered this day in 1942. Set in occupied Morocco during World War II, directed by Michael Curtiz, and starring Humphrey Bogart, Ingrid Bergman, and Paul Henreid, it became one of Hollywood's most-revered films.