THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Tensions continue to climb in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, with Thailand’s border conflict, Iran’s nuclear diplomacy, and Ukraine’s defence funding all commanding global attention.

France’s recognition of Palestine breaks with U.S. policy and sends fresh ripples through diplomatic circles, while Australia and the UK lock in a 50-year AUKUS submarine deal that deepens Indo-Pacific defence ties.

Today we dive into the military comparisons of Thailand and Cambodia. Thailand has a far larger and robust modern military, while Cambodia’s is land-focussed but has had significant Chinese backing.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Thailand rejects international mediation to end fighting with Cambodia
Thailand has firmly rejected international offers to mediate its escalating border conflict with Cambodia, including proposals from the U.S., China, and ASEAN. Thai officials say they will only consider bilateral talks once Cambodia halts what they describe as “unilateral attacks,” preferring to use established channels like the Joint Boundary Commission rather than involving international courts. With at least 16 people killed and continued shelling along the border, the standoff has become the most intense between the two countries in over a decade.
read more

2. Iran and Europeans hold nuclear talks with questions over future UN sanctions
Iran and senior diplomats from Britain, France, and Germany began face-to-face nuclear negotiations in Istanbul on July 25, marking their first direct engagement since June’s U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites. These talks focus on Iran’s cooperation with the IAEA and the fate of roughly 400 kilograms of near‑weapons‑grade uranium, as European leaders warn they may trigger a U.N. sanctions “snapback” by the end of August if no concrete progress is made. Iran, meanwhile, reaffirmed its commitment to uranium enrichment and dismissed any proposals to extend U.N. Resolution 2231 as legally and politically baseless.
read more

3. UK and Australia deepen AUKUS submarine pact with 50-year treaty
Australia and the UK have signed a 50-year defence treaty to solidify their long-term cooperation under the AUKUS pact, with a key focus on jointly developing nuclear-powered submarines. The agreement is expected to generate tens of thousands of skilled jobs and support up to £20 billion in British defence exports over the next 25 years. While the U.S. continues to review its role in the broader AUKUS arrangement, both London and Canberra have reaffirmed the alliance’s strategic value in maintaining security across the Indo-Pacific and strengthening NATO-aligned defence ties.
read more

4. France breaks from US & other Western nations to recognise Palestinian state
France has become the first major G7 country to formally recognise the State of Palestine, announcing plans to make it official at the U.N. General Assembly in September 2025, a move signalling solidarity with the two-state solution amid ongoing conflict in Gaza. French President Macron defended the decision as a diplomatic effort to support peace, emphasising that it challenges, rather than emboldens, Hamas by reinforcing the authority of the Palestinian Authority. The announcement drew sharp backlash from Israeli and U.S. officials, who condemned the move as undermining Israel’s security and rewarding extremist groups.
read more

5. Zelenskyy plans to ask Europe for help to pay Ukraine’s soldiers
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has called on European allies to help fund increased wages for Ukrainian soldiers, arguing that competitive pay is critical to boosting morale and sustaining recruitment as the war enters its fourth year. While Western support has largely focused on weapons and military equipment, Zelenskyy emphasised that "the service members themselves can be the weapon that protects everyone." His appeal comes as Ukraine also secures three new Patriot missile systems and enters talks to finance seven more, aiming to strengthen its defences against a surge in Russian aerial attacks.
read more

DAILY DEEP DIVE

THE ‘ON THE GROUND’ ANALYSIS OF THE CAMBO-THAI CONFLICT

ON PAPER COMPARISON

It is the second day of the border skirmishes, in which suspended Thai PM has said this might turn into a larger conflict. We can already see the influences behind both nations military doctrines with some of the videos released. For instance, there have been several videos Cambodian MLRS firing into Thailand. While, Thailand has released footage of drones, air strikes, modern equipment. As you will see, it correlates with the statistics below.

Cambodia

Global Military Ranking: #95 of 145, Power Index score ~2.0752

Total Personnel: ~231,000 (221,000 active; ~10,000 paramilitary) — no reserves listed 

Army Strength: ~85,000 soldiers organized into eleven infantry divisions with integrated armour and artillery

Equipment:

Armoured Vehicles & Tanks: ~644 tanks (Type‑59, T‑55 variants, Type‑62/63 light tanks), ~3,600+ armoured fighting vehicles

Artillery: ~430 towed artillery, ~463 rocket projectors/MRLs, 30 self-propelled guns (e.g. PCL‑09)

Air Force: ~25 aircraft (mainly helicopters and transport aircraft), no combat jets

Navy: ~13 patrol/costal vessels, no submarines or frigates; 2,800 personnel including naval infantry

Defence Budget: ~US $860 million (≈1.3% of GDP)

Rocket Artillery Capability: Significant MRL inventory (~463 units), making ground-firepower Cambodian strength

Thailand

Global Military Ranking: #25 of 145, Power Index score ~0.4536 (lower = stronger)

Total Personnel: ~606,850 (360,850 active; 200,000+ reserve; 25,000 paramilitary)

Army Strength: ~245,000 troops (including ~115,000 conscripts), organized into extensive manpower and conscription systems.

Equipment:

Armoured Vehicles & Tanks: ~400 main battle tanks; ~1,200+ armoured personnel carriers; ~2,600 artillery pieces

Air Force: ~112 combat aircraft (28 F‑16s, 11 Swedish Gripens), 46,000 air personnel, along with transport/helicopters and UAVs

Navy: ~70,000 personnel; 1 aircraft carrier; 7 frigates; ~68 patrol vessels; amphibious and marine-capable units.

Defence Budget: ~US $5.7–5.9 billion (≈1.4–1.5% of GDP)

 Differences & Strategic Implications

GEOGRAPHY:

Any protracted conflict here would be horrible for both sides. This is an area that is extremely dense in jungle tundra, with extreme heat conditions and limited logistics capabilities.

Right now, the major area of conflict is happening at the temple of Preah Vihear. The geography is significantly in favour of Thailand, they control the high ground section of a continuous stretch of ridges. This limits movement and exposure of the heavily land-focussed Cambodian military.

There are limited routes for either side to make armoured advances, all which would be a dream come true for any artillery or airforce crews. Roads and passes are limited in size and are flanked by ridges.

CHINA’S ROLE:

Cambodia has a strong history with China, the smaller nation has been working with the Chinese military to increase military readiness. The joint exercise involves coordinated naval, air, and land operation focused on enhancing counterterrorism capabilities and interoperability. Notably, it marks the first deployment of Chinese air force helicopters and radar units in a cross-border drill with Cambodia.

China has upgraded Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base with new docks, radar, and command facilities to boost maritime surveillance and coastal defence. Though too shallow for large warships, it can host Chinese Type 056 corvettes. The upgrades support Cambodia’s strategy to counter Thai and Vietnamese pressure. From 2018 to 2023, over 93% of Cambodia’s military imports came from China.

However, Beijing has also been deepening military ties with Thailand through joint exercises and high-level defence exchanges, signalling a strategic balancing act in the region. China has expressed deep concern over the ongoing Cambodia–Thailand border clashes, calling for dialogue and pledging a neutral stance to help de-escalate tensions.

Sources:
Cambodianess. (n.d.). China vows impartiality over Cambodia–Thailand border clashes. Retrieved July 24, 2025, from https://cambodianess.com/article/china-vows-impartiality-over-cambodia-thailand-border-clashes
Global Firepower. (2025). Cambodia vs Thailand military strength comparison. Retrieved July 25, 2025, from https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-detail.php?country1=Cambodia&country2=Thailand
Lowy Institute. (2024, December 4). Partnership of convenience: Ream Naval Base and the Cambodia–China convergence (by Rahman Yaacob). Retrieved from https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/partnership-convenience-ream-naval-base-cambodia-china-convergence
Ministry of National Defense of the People’s Republic of China. (n.d.). Golden Dragon 2025 joint exercise [News release]. Retrieved from China Military Online: http://eng.mod.gov.cn/xb/News_213114/TopStories/16387004.html
Nation Thailand. (2025, July 23). Thailand’s military capability far exceeds Cambodia’s: Analysts. Retrieved from https://www.nationthailand.com/news/general/40050940
Ruser, N. [@Nrg8000]. (2025, [exact date]). Tweet (ID: 1948643739288924460) detailing frontline deployments and escalation insights along the Thailand–Cambodia border. Retrieved via X (formerly Twitter) from https://x.com/Nrg8000/status/1948643739288924460
SPICE. (n.d.). Thailand and Cambodia: The battle for Preah Vihear. Stanford Program on International and Cross-Cultural Education (SPICE), Stanford University. https://spice.fsi.stanford.edu/docs/thailand_and_cambodia_the_battle_for_preah_vihear

TWEET OF THE DAY

X was going wild when Cambodian Senate President leaked his militaries entire operational maps

TODAY IN HISTORY

(July 25, 306 AD): Constantine I is proclaimed Roman Emperor by his troops, marking the rise of one of Rome’s most influential rulers. Though the title was not officially recognised by all factions of the Roman Empire, his troops’ support set in motion a power struggle that would eventually lead to Constantine becoming the sole emperor and transforming the empire, including the foundation of Constantinople and the promotion of Christianity.