THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From diplomatic handshakes in Dublin to razor-thin election margins in Central America, today’s news spans both high politics and street-level pressure.

We’re tracking Zelenskyy’s first visit to Ireland, a nail-biting vote count in Honduras, mass protests shaking Bulgaria, a major shake-up in Nigeria’s security leadership, and fresh U.S. defence approvals in the Gulf.

For this deep dive, we’re looking at Black Bird’s new monthly update on Russian gains in Ukraine  and what these figures actually tell us about the war’s direction.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives in Ireland for first official visit
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has arrived in Dublin, beginning his first official visit to Ireland as President, joined by First Lady Olena Zelenska. During the visit Zelenskyy is slated to meet Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin and newly elected President Catherine Connolly, open the Ireland-Ukraine Economic Forum, and address a joint session of the national parliament. The Irish government says the trip underlines its “steadfast support” for Ukraine’s sovereignty as Kyiv seeks peace and increased cooperation.
read more 

2. Honduras election: presidential candidates locked in ‘technical tie’
Early returns from Honduras’ 2025 presidential vote show conservative candidate Nasry Asfura and liberal contender Salvador Nasralla locked in a "technical tie," with Asfura narrowly leading by just 515 votes according to the country’s electoral authority. The results have triggered a manual recount, amid widespread concerns about electoral integrity and running tensions over U.S. influence, particularly after public intervention by Trump. Regardless of who ultimately takes the lead, the close finish underscores deep divisions in Honduran politics ahead of the final vote count.
read more

3. Major Anti-Government protests erupt across Bulgaria
Massive anti-government protests erupted across Bulgaria, with tens of thousands rallying in Sofia and major cities to reject the draft 2026 budget, which critics say burdens citizens with higher taxes and social-security contributions. Clashes broke out between demonstrators and police, with some protestors vandalising ruling-party offices, throwing rocks and firecrackers, leading to injuries on both sides and several arrests. Facing the unrest and rising public pressure, the government has announced plans to withdraw the budget draft and resubmit a revised version after consultations with unions, employers, and opposition parties.
read more

4. Nigeria’s defence minister quits as government faces rising violence
Nigeria’s Defence Minister Mohammed Badaru Abubakar has resigned with immediate effect, citing health reasons, the presidency announced on Monday. His departure comes as the country reels from a surge in kidnappings and violent attacks which prompted President Bola Tinubu to declare a nationwide security emergency. The resignation intensifies pressure on the government to overhaul Nigeria’s security strategy, which critics say has faltered under growing gang violence and mass abductions.
read more

5. US approves potential $455 million sale of F-16 sustainment to Bahrain
The U.S. State Department has approved a potential US $455 million sale to Bahrain to sustain its fleet of F-16 fighter jets, including maintenance support, spare parts, and related equipment. The contracts, valued at the Pentagon estimate, list General Electric Aerospace and Lockheed Martin Aeronautics as the principal contractors tasked with delivering the sustainment package. The approval underscores ongoing U.S.–Gulf defence cooperation and aims to keep Bahrain’s air force operationally ready amid regional volatility.
read more

DAILY DEEP DIVE

Troubling Year For Ukraine

Note: Other map makers will show differing numbers. But I find Black Bird mostly reliable due to its data collection methods and employees.

2024 
Let’s start with the previous year, 2024. Some of Russia’s strongest gains began toward the end of the year, starting in August. The spike in May 2024 was Russia’s Kharkiv incursion, where fighting continues today in the border city of Vovchansk. What’s interesting is that in August, Ukraine launched its ill-fated Kursk offensive. I was critical of the Kursk incursion from the beginning — the political objectives simply didn’t align with realities on the ground.

A large contingent of Ukrainian troops was pushed north, leaving the Donbas frontline weakened. And this is where we began to see Russian gains steadily increase throughout the rest of the year — the exact opposite of what the Kursk offensive was supposed to achieve. By November,  Ukraine had lost 40% of its controlled territory in the Kursk Oblast. Russian winter gains in November were mainly shaped on the Donetsk front. Russia captured several Donetsk settlements, advancing near Kupiansk, reclaiming much of Kursk Oblast.

2025
We’ll skip the operational pause from January to April and move straight into the 2025 Spring–Summer offensive. May opened with a strong push on three main sectors: Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, and northern Lyman. By June, Russia was still advancing in these areas while also adding gains around Chasiv Yar and the Kupiansk sector. This period also marked the beginning of the major drive toward Pokrovske.

In July, Russia launched another Kharkiv incursion, expanded its northern pincer toward Pokrovsk, and continued a general push across most of the front—though progress stalled south of Kostiantynivka. In August, the now-famous Dobropillya salient expanded, matched by broad advances across multiple axes. One of the most promising, yet widely under-discussed, remained the Pokrovske sector.

Through August and September, however, we began to see a noticeable dip in momentum. Online commentary quickly jumped to the conclusion that the Russian offensive had failed or stalled, especially around Pokrovsk. We cautioned against counting chickens before they hatch. OSINT analysts highlighted signs of an operational regrouping and armour being brought forward—something that had become a rarity.

By late October, this materialised. Both sides committed heavily to the Dobropillya salient, deploying armoured columns and sustaining heavy losses. By month’s end, Russian troops were deep inside Pokrovsk. The Lyman front, from September to October, had also deteriorated significantly for Ukraine.

November then delivered some of the highest gains of the year. Russia expanded on nearly every axis, particularly along the Huliaipole–Pokrovske line—even traditional stalemate areas like Vovchansk and Siversk saw movement. Ukraine, however, has managed to push fighting back into Chasiv Yar and turned the tide on the Dobropillya salient. 

The Remaining Winter Months
For the remainder of December and January, I believe weather will be a major factor in whether Russia continues to make gains or not. Putin just delivered a speech in a rare military uniform at a command post on Sunday, where he received briefings on Russia’s claimed captures of Pokrovsk and Vovchansk — which is arguable. What mattered more was his clear message that Russian troops have all the necessary winter gear to continue the offensive.

There are three key weather considerations.
1. Fog: If the fog persists, Russia will maintain a significant advantage on the battlefield, especially in urban environments. Ukraine relies far more heavily on drones than Russia, and fog means low visibility and strong winds — both of which reduce drone effectiveness. We’ve already seen how this has helped Russian units move almost with impunity inside Pokrovsk. The fog has persisted for weeks with no sign of clearing.

2. Foliage: Winter means sparse foliage. This theoretically reduces Russian advances because DRG units can no longer rely on dense treelines for concealment, which they used effectively throughout the summer.

3. Snow and rain: Heavy snowfall or prolonged rain will naturally slow operations for both sides, reducing mobility and limiting offensive opportunities.

However, if the fog persists expect to see continued consolidation in key urban centres. Both as Ukraine struggles to fight urban battles due to manpower issues and Putin will be eager to show more headlines to Trump.

Also, unlike 2024, we have seen consistent high levels of territory captured for months on end. If this trend continues, we could see November 2024 numbers happening a lot more frequently and sooner than some would hope.

Sources:
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

TWEET OF THE DAY

“In a gold rush, sell shovels”

TODAY IN HISTORY

(December 2, 1823): Monroe Doctrine

The Monroe Doctrine, which declared that the U.S. would not interfere in European affairs but that its sphere of interest included the entire Western Hemisphere, was enunciated by President James Monroe this day in 1823.