THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Tensions are rising across multiple fronts, from Washington’s sweeping sanctions on Palestinian and Iranian officials to new fallout in Lebanon, where the president has called on Hezbollah to disarm.

Trump escalates his trade war with Canada over its Palestine stance, while Kyiv reels from one of the deadliest overnight missile attacks in months. As diplomacy stalls and rhetoric hardens, pressure points are emerging far beyond the battlefield.

Today we take a deep dive into Trump’s preference for deals over traditional diplomacy and how it has been a key factor in reshaping the current global diplomatic landscape.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. US sanctions Palestinian authority officials & PLO members
The U.S. has slapped sanctions on senior officials within the Palestinian Authority and members of the Palestine Liberation Organization, accusing them of actions that undermine peace efforts, including pushing cases before international courts. The Treasury imposed travel bans and asset freezes, arguing these individuals violated longstanding commitments toward Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy. The move marks an increasingly unilateral U.S. stance, stepping in where multilateral peace processes have stalled.
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2. Eight dead in Kyiv, including 6 year old child, after overnight Russian strikes
Russia launched a massive missile and drone assault on Kyiv before dawn on July 31, killing at least eight people and injuring 88 others, according to Ukrainian officials. The attack saw over 300 drones and eight cruise missiles deployed, striking 27 locations including schools, hospitals, and residential buildings, and overwhelming parts of the city’s air defence network. While Moscow claimed it targeted military sites, the scale and civilian impact prompted Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to denounce the strike as a brutal response to Ukraine's alignment with the West.
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3. Trump escalates trade war with Canada following Palestine stance
Trump signalled a sharp escalation in his trade dispute with Canada just one day ahead of an August 1 deadline, warning it will be "very hard" to reach an agreement after Canada’s announcement to back Palestinian statehood. Trump threatened to impose a sweeping 35% tariff on Canadian goods not covered by the USMCA trade deal if no pact is finalised by the deadline. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who said talks had been productive so far, now sees a real chance the deal could collapse, risking significant costs for one of the U.S.’s largest trading partners.
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4. US Treasury hits Iranian shipping network with major new sanctions
The U.S. Treasury has announced sweeping sanctions on more than 115 Iran-linked individuals, companies, and vessels, targeting a sophisticated global network responsible for channeling tens of billions in oil revenue to Tehran. Central to the crackdown is the operation run by Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani (son of a top Iranian adviser) which employs front companies, a fleet of tankers, and complex financial schemes across at least 17 countries to evade sanctions. This marks Washington’s most significant Iran-related sanctions package since 2018 and underscores renewed pressure to strangle the regime’s key funding mechanisms behind its nuclear, missile, and proxy programs.
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5. Lebanese president calls for Hezbollah to disarm as US pressure rises
Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun has called on Hezbollah and other armed political groups to hand over their weapons to the Lebanese army as part of a broader plan to establish state monopoly over force and restore sovereignty. The proposal ties disarmament to an immediate ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon, and the release of Lebanese detainees, while requesting $1 billion annually in international aid for rebuilding and military reform. Hezbollah strongly rejected the call, with its leader insisting that demilitarisation should only follow a full Israeli withdrawal and arguing its arsenal is essential to Lebanon’s defence, describing disarmament demands as surrender to Israel.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

THE ART OF THE BILATERAL DEAL

Since Donald Trump's first appearance on the diplomatic world stage, he sent shockwaves through the international community of liberal democracies. For decades, the United States had largely operated under the guiding principles of international liberalism: a theory rooted in the belief that global peace and stability are best achieved through cooperation, economic interdependence, and the strengthening of international institutions.

International Liberalism
A key tenet of international liberalism is multilateralism: the idea that states should work together through collective frameworks such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organisation, and regional alliances like NATO or the European Union. These institutions are designed not only to mediate disputes and foster dialogue but also to promote democratic values, human rights, and economic integration. In addition to state actors, international liberalism places strong emphasis on the involvement of non-governmental organisations (NGOs), civil society groups, and supranational bodies in shaping the global order and influencing policy beyond the traditional realm of state diplomacy. These actors often help to hold states accountable, provide humanitarian relief, and advocate for transnational issues such as climate change, public health, and development.

The Trump Era
Yet in 2016 and more aggressively in 2025, the world watched with uncertainty as Donald Trump prepared to implement his “America First” foreign policy. What followed was a sharp pivot away from the multilateral approach that had long defined U.S. diplomacy. Under Trump, the United States increasingly favoured bilateralism (the pursuit of direct, state-to-state relations) whether with allies or strategic competitors.

The Trump administration withdrew from several multilateral agreements and institutions, including the Paris Climate Accord, the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA), and the UN Human Rights Council. It also placed less emphasis on traditional alliances, questioning NATO’s value and imposing tariffs on allies under the guise of national security. This approach has since unsettled both partners and rivals, leading to widespread concern about the future of the liberal international order. 

In recent months, Donald Trump has secured a range of bilateral trade agreements with a diverse set of states, from long-standing allies like Japan to strategic partners such as Pakistan and India. His disregard for multilateral frameworks like the Quad and BRICS, combined with an aggressive use of tariffs, reflects a deliberate strategic approach. Trump recognises that states often act in their own self-interest and are unlikely to form a united front against unilateral economic pressure that may be within in the same multilateral framework. By exploiting these divisions, he reinforces a transactional model of diplomacy in which bilateral leverage takes precedence over collective bargaining. 

Return of Multipolarity?  
Trump’s preference for deals over diplomacy may accelerate a return to a multipolarity system not seen since 20th century. The European Union has increasingly prioritised strategic autonomy in areas such as defence, energy, and technology.  The shift is accelerated by the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Trump’s scepticism toward NATO, and the intensifying U.S.–China rivalry. This has prompted Europe to hedge against over-reliance on American leadership. Simultaneously, Russia and China have continued to advance notions of multipolarity, rooted in sovereignty, non-interference, and great-power spheres of influence. They argue that U.S. unilateralism is self-serving and seek to reorient global governance toward a multipolar system.

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Sources:
Sources available on request

TWEET OF THE DAY

One day, when my kids ask, I’ll just say—‘those were some wild times.’

TODAY IN HISTORY

(July 31 1971): Lunar Roving Vehicle first used on the Moon

On this day in 1971, Apollo 15 astronauts James B. Irwin and David Scott first used the four-wheeled battery-powered Lunar Roving Vehicle to extensively explore the Moon's surface, in particular the Hadley-Apennine site.