THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Today’s edition covers a mix of diplomatic manoeuvres, defence updates, and a few global flare-ups.

Australia and Singapore have strengthened their defence partnership, Ecuador’s president faced violent protests, and Washington is still reviewing the AUKUS submarine deal.

In Europe, the UK and EU are at odds over steel tariffs, while in Asia, China and Malaysia prepare for joint military drills.

Today we tackle Russia’s growing border crisis. Russia’s vast borders were once its strength, now they’re its greatest weakness. As Moscow tightens controls and Kazakhstan moves to appease the West, the arteries feeding Russia’s war machine are slowly being squeezed.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Australia, Singapore seek stronger defence ties under upgraded partnership
Australia and Singapore have agreed to elevate their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP), with plans to deepen collaboration in defence including more frequent access to each other’s military facilities and expanded joint training. The two governments emphasised that security cooperation will be joined with shared work on economic, green, and technological fronts under the upgraded pact. Critics say while the announcements are meaningful, the real test will be how quickly the new facilities, exercises and logistics tie-ins are put into practice.
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2. Ecuador President’s motorcade attacked by crowd throwing rocks
Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa escaped unharmed after his motorcade was attacked by around 500 protesters in Cañar Province, who threw rocks and allegedly fired shots at his vehicle. Environment Minister Inés Manzano said they found signs of bullet damage and have detained five people, who may face charges including terrorism and attempted assassination. The protest is part of broader unrest over the government’s decision to eliminate fuel subsidies, which Indigenous groups and farmers say are hitting them hardest.
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3. Pentagon nominee says review continuing on AUKUS submarine project
Pentagon nominee John Noh confirmed on Tuesday that the U.S. Department of Defense is continuing a review of the AUKUS submarine agreement with Australia and the U.K. to ensure the plan is sustainable and aligned with current strategic priorities. He cited the need to ramp up U.S. Virginia-class submarine production to meet obligations under the pact. While the review began in July, he stated the Pentagon intends to wrap it up by the fall, despite some criticism from Congress over the review’s surprise timing.
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4. UK pledges to defend steel industry after EU says it will raise tariffs to 50%
The European Union is moving to bolster its steel sector by proposing cuts to tariff-free import quotas and imposing a 50% levy on any volume of steel imports above those limits. The draft measures, set to be officially unveiled October 7, aim to protect EU producers from global overcapacity and mirror similar moves already taken by the U.S. and Canada. However, the plan has sparked concern among automakers and trade partners, who warn it could raise input costs and strain supply chains.
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5. China, Malaysia set to hold joint military drills in October
China and Malaysia are set to hold a joint military exercise in mid-to-late October, dubbed “Peace and Friendship 2025,” focusing on humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, and maritime security operations. The drill will take place in Malaysian territory and adjacent waters, with multi-service forces from both nations participating, and ASEAN states invited to send observers. This marks the latest step in China’s efforts to deepen defence cooperation with Southeast Asian neighbours and project soft power through joint security partnerships.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

RUSSIA’S BORDER CRISIS

When the Spiderweb Operation took place earlier this year, we correctly predicted that it would not significantly affect Russia’s air campaign against Ukraine. Drones were beginning to be the primary weapon, after all. Secondly, we also accurately foresaw that the attack would complicate internal logistics, security, and related operations. Why? Because once investigations began, it became clear that Ukraine had used Russia’s borders to smuggle in the drones and equipment necessary for the operation. You see, Russia’s vast size was once its greatest advantage — but in the age of technological warfare, driven by rapid innovation, it has become its greatest disadvantage.

Logistical Nightmare
In an attempt to secure crossborder infiltration, new border regulations have been introduced by Moscow in early October – But they have disrupted long-established trade corridors across Eurasia. The rules, designed to tighten customs control and curb sanctioned imports, have had the opposite effect, choking supply chains and prompting warnings from Kazakh lawmakers that they could “cut off key routes” connecting Russia, China, and Central Asia. One example follows Russia’s January 1 rules limiting visa-free stays for foreign nationals, including Kazakhs, to 90 days per year — a policy that now counts long delays at Russian border crossings, including routes to the EU via Belarus, toward that limit, forcing many drivers into technical noncompliance.

Simultaneously, Kazakhstan has launched its own sweeping border crackdown aimed at curbing illicit technology transfers into Russia. According to United24 Media and Kommersant, since mid-September Kazakhstan’s customs officers have begun inspecting 99% of trucks carrying sanction-sensitive goods, particularly microchips, CNC machinery, and dual-use electronics from China. The result: massive queues stretching several kilometers and over 7,500 trucks stranded at major crossings. Even shipments unrelated to sanctions now face three-to-five-day delays, while high-tech cargo is often turned back outright.

Officials in Astana argue the move is necessary to maintain compliance with Western sanctions and avoid secondary penalties, while Moscow’s new rules add another bureaucratic layer that slows trade even further. Together, these measures have created the most severe disruption to Russia–Kazakhstan logistics since the war began.

What’s unfolding is a low-key conflict between Kazakhstan and Russia, masked as technical regulation. Moscow’s new visa and border rules aim to tighten control over infiltration and hinder Kazakhstani economic interests , while Kazakhstan’s near-total cargo inspections show growing mistrust and Western alignment. By enforcing sanctions within a Russian-led bloc, Astana is quietly asserting its sovereignty and signalling that it won’t serve as Moscow’s sanctions backdoor. In turn, Russia’s restrictive border and visa measures act as subtle retaliation. 

Chinese and Russian Trade Hitting Lows
To make matters worse, the trade relationship between China and Russia is being tested. Overall energy volumes are being reduced as demand from China drops. But China has also begun quiet restrictions of high-tech exports to Russia. The move threatens to choke off access to semiconductors, precision machinery, and other components vital to weapons manufacturing and drone production. The issue is that if these channels close, Russia will increasingly rely on smaller, unreliable intermediaries, exposing major cracks in its war economy.

The fallout is already visible. Shipments of Chinese goods to Russia fell 16.4% year-on-year in August, twice the 8.6% decline in July, while total trade between the two countries dropped nearly 9% in the first eight months of 2025 to 1.03 trillion yuan (US $145 billion). Russian exports to China slid 8.8%, and Chinese imports into Russia fell 8.2%. Beijing has also cut purchases of almost all Russian raw materials (including oil), eroding a key source of Moscow’s wartime revenue.

Weaker trade is straining Russia’s budget and living standards. Oil and gas income is now forecast to end 24% below government targets, while consumer imports like cars and smartphones have plunged 29%. Inflation, tight monetary policy, and import bans are squeezing purchasing power, forcing Russians to delay major purchases and settle for less.

Yet Beijing hasn’t severed all support. In the first half of 2025, China still exported US $1.9 billion worth of dual-use goods, items with both civilian and military applications, to Russia – only 7% lower year-on-year. What we’re seeing here is a calculated balance: restricting visible trade to appease the West while quietly sustaining Moscow’s industrial base.

Our Assessment
With both Ukraine and Russia locked in a grinding stalemate, neither side currently possesses the capacity to win a conventional war. As a result, each is turning to pressure tactics designed to force the other into capitulation. For Moscow, the disadvantage lies in its uneasy ties with neighbouring states — relationships shaped more by coercion than genuine alliance. In contrast to Ukraine’s increasingly cohesive Western support, Russia’s partnerships remain transactional and brittle.

Sources:
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TODAY IN HISTORY

(October 8, 1871): Great Chicago Fire

On this day in 1871, the Great Chicago Fire began in the barn of Patrick and Catherine O'Leary, and, by the time the blaze died out two days later, a large swath of the city had been devastated and some 300 people killed.