THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

In China, Xi marked Victory Day with a parade alongside Putin and Kim, underscoring anti-Western alignment. In the Middle East, Israel’s push into Gaza deepens humanitarian crisis while the UAE warns West Bank annexation is a “red line.” In the Americas, Trump confirmed a U.S. strike on a Venezuelan “drug vessel.” And in Asia, Afghanistan battles earthquake devastation with commando-led relief operations.

Today we explore the shifting tactics that both empower drones on the battlefield and aim to suppress them.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. 80th anniversary of the ‘Victory Day’ with huge parade in China
Xi Jinping used the anniversary parade to frame China as central to shaping global order, contrasting “peace or war” choices with U.S. “unilateralism.” His seating with Putin and Kim symbolised a tightening of anti-Western alignment, reinforcing recent Russia–North Korea and China–North Korea defence pacts that could alter Asia-Pacific security dynamics. The event also masked internal challenges, with ongoing PLA purges, while signalling confidence in China’s military modernisation and its role as a counterweight to U.S. influence under Trump’s unpredictable policies.
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2. Israel intensifies ground operations in Gaza dividing public opinion
Israeli forces advanced into Gaza City’s Sheikh Radwan district, intensifying urban combat and destruction in one of the enclave’s most crowded areas. The operation, framed as targeting Hamas’ last stronghold, risks displacing up to one million Palestinians amid a deepening humanitarian crisis marked by mass casualties, hunger, and destroyed shelters. Israel’s leadership remains divided, with the military warning against the offensive’s risks to hostages while Netanyahu insists on Hamas’ defeat. Public pressure in Israel is growing for a ceasefire tied to hostage release.
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3. U.S Navy conducted a military strike on ‘drug vessel’ run by Venezuela, Trump says
The U.S. conducted a rare military strike in the Caribbean, destroying a vessel allegedly run by Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua gang and killing 11 people. Trump framed it as a warning to traffickers, though questions remain over proof linking the gang or Venezuelan state to the boat. Maduro denounced the action as a pretext to target Venezuela’s resources, while officials disputed the video’s authenticity. The strike escalates U.S.–Venezuela tensions amid broader naval deployments and debates over the scale of Venezuela’s role in cocaine trafficking.
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4. UAE says West Bank annexation is a “red line” undermining the Abraham Accords
The UAE issued its strongest warning to Israel since the Gaza war, declaring West Bank annexation plans a “red line” that would undermine the Abraham Accords. Emirati envoy Lana Nusseibeh stressed that normalization was tied to supporting Palestinian statehood, reaffirming Abu Dhabi’s 2020 stance. The criticism follows Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich’s plan for a settlement cutting the West Bank off from East Jerusalem, condemned internationally as a blow to peace prospects. The UAE urged Israel to suspend the move, warning extremists cannot dictate regional outcomes.
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5. Afghanistan airdrops commandos in worst flood- stricken areas
Afghanistan intensified relief efforts after twin earthquakes in Kunar and Nangarhar killed 1,400 and devastated remote villages. With helicopters unable to land in mountainous terrain, Taliban special forces were airdropped to evacuate survivors and carry the injured to safer ground. A 6.0 quake on Sunday and a 5.5 aftershock on Tuesday triggered landslides, cutting off access and complicating aid delivery. Authorities set up camps and coordination centres to manage rescue operations, medical transfers, food distribution, and burial of victims amid ongoing disruptions.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

DRONES TAKING OVER POSITIONS FROM SOLDIERS? YEP YOU HEARD IT RIGHT.

DRONES CONTROLLING SECTIONS OF FRONTLINE WITH NO PERSONNEL 
We first observed this dynamic when Russian forces broke through the Dobropillya frontline. Ukrainian media reported that due to severe manpower shortages on certain sectors, defence relied almost entirely on drone teams rather than infantry. Russian sabotage and reconnaissance (DRG) units were able to penetrate the area by systematically neutralising these drone crews in the early phase of the breakthrough, an aspect explored in the next section.

More recently, Ukrainian Sergeant Anton Chyorny, now a training officer, stated that Russia’s Rubicon drone unit can dominate entire villages without deploying personnel on the ground. Both sides are thus employing drones not only as tools of deterrence but also as instruments of territorial control. According to Chyorny, the intensity of Rubicon’s operations prevents Ukrainian troops from leaving trenches or resupplying defensive positions, while Baba Yaga drones are neutralized almost immediately after takeoff. Rubicon’s tactics establish “kill zones” that block reinforcements, enabling Russian troops to advance into villages with minimal resistance.

Ukraine’s manpower shortages remain a critical constraint, which explains why Robert Brovdi, known as Madyar and head of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, is advocating for a “drone wall” designed to inflict up to 35,000 Russian casualties per month. With Ukraine’s rapidly expanding drone industry, more ‘grey zones’ or ‘no man’s land’ areas will emerge. Sectors where movement is entirely observed and controlled by drones. Russia, seeking to conserve its own manpower for sustained offensives, continues to expand its drone warfare capabilities in response to Ukraine’s innovations.

DON’T HUNT THE BIRDS, HUNT THE NESTS
So we can clearly see that with each month, the importance of drones on the battlefield is increasing. There is no clear final answer to the dominance of drones. Each defence has a counter, which is being compounded by growing innovation of drone lethality. 

Such so, that on the priority of targets - drone nests and teams are number one by a fair margin. What is a drone nest? Simply put it can be HQ, a command post that has been specifically built deep behind the frontlines - oftentimes in underground bunkers. But drone teams can also setup their nests in abandoned buildings, both in smaller apartment blocks and large buildings that have a good view for observation and elevation. 

Sources for deepstate state that Russian tactics are increasingly focused on robotization and drone integration to reduce exposure of assault groups. Small arms battles and frontal assaults have largely been abandoned, with drones now playing a central role in supporting ground troops and conducting precision strikes. More importantly, Operations emphasise encirclement, bypassing fortified positions, and deep penetration into Ukrainian rear areas, where sabotage groups target mortar and drone operator positions. 

Evidence from the Dobropillya sector demonstrates how critical this focus on drone teams has become (From research done by ISW). Russian forces reportedly systematically neutralised Ukrainian drone crews before pressing forward, effectively dismantling the defensive screen that had been built around unmanned systems. By eliminating these operators early, Russia created “blind spots” in Ukraine’s defence, isolating combat zones and opening corridors for reconnaissance and sabotage groups to infiltrate. But it should also be noted this operation was planned and gradually carried out months ahead of the perceived ‘sudden’ breakthrough. This was a well-planned operation specifically aimed at drone teams.  Thus as both sides adapt, the battle increasingly centres on denying the enemy’s drone operators the time and space to shape the fight.

But note that drone teams have long been hunting each other. Given the internet fame (and loathing) they have gained, they have become prize targets for one another. But what we are witnessing here is a restructuring of tactics on a large scale to hunt them.

Sources:
Deepstate
ISW Analysis (13th August)
SU_57R. (2025, August 15). [Full text of the tweet] [X (formerly Twitter) post]. X. https://x.com/SU_57R/status/1962658663488987512

TWEET OF THE DAY

In geopolitics, optics matter. This will forever taint Trump’s image on the global stage.

TODAY IN HISTORY

(September 3, 1648): Death of Oliver Cromwell
English soldier and statesman Oliver Cromwell, who rose to power as Lord Protector following the English Civil War, died in London. A central figure in the execution of King Charles I and the establishment of the short-lived republican Commonwealth, Cromwell remains one of Britain’s most polarizing leaders—hailed by some as a champion of parliamentary rule, condemned by others as a dictator. His death marked the beginning of political instability that paved the way for the monarchy’s eventual restoration.