THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Diplomacy and pressure are moving in parallel today, with Trump confirming talks with Iran even as missiles once again fall on Ukrainian cities after a brief pause.

There’s also a notable trade shift as Washington eases tariffs on India following New Delhi’s decision to stop buying Russian oil, alongside China pushing its vision of a multipolar world during high-level talks with Uruguay.

Rounding out the day are renewed scrutiny on Europe’s royals with fresh charges in Norway — and in our Deep Dive we unpack the UAE's strained ambitions, as Egypt begins to mount it's own military involvement against the UAE's proxy in Sudan.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Trump confirms that talks with Iran are ongoing
On Monday, Trump stated that talks with Iran are ongoing, indicating active diplomatic engagement between Washington and Tehran amid heightened regional tensions. Trump made the comments while reporters were at the White House, noting that negotiations were underway even as U.S. military assets were being positioned in the region and offering no detailed timeline or specific outcomes. The announcement followed Iranian and U.S. indications of planned nuclear talks later in the week (Scheduled for Friday in Turkey) with officials from both sides preparing for discussions aimed at addressing nuclear issues, though fundamental differences remain.
read more 

2. US agrees to drop tariffs after India stops Russian oil purchases
The United States and India reached a trade agreement in which the U.S. agreed to cut tariffs on Indian goods to about 18% and remove punitive levies, following New Delhi’s commitment to halt purchases of Russian oil, a step aimed at reducing Moscow’s energy revenue amid the Ukraine war. Trump announced the deal after a phone call with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, framing the tariff rollback as tied to broader strategic cooperation and India’s shift toward buying more U.S. energy and industrial products.
read more

3. Son of Norway’s Crown princess arrested on new charges before start of rape trial
The 29-year-old son of Norway’s Crown Princess Mette-Marit, was arrested on Sunday on new charges including assault, making threats with a knife and violating a restraining order just days before his scheduled rape trial begins in Oslo this week. The Oslo district court approved a request to hold Høiby in custody for four weeks to prevent potential reoffending; he faces a 38-count indictment including four alleged rapes, domestic violence, assault and drug-related charges, all of which he denies.
read more

4. Xi urges ‘equal, multipolar world’ in talks with Uruguay’s Orsi
Chinese President Xi Jinping told Uruguayan President Yamandú Orsi in Beijing that China and Uruguay should work together to advance an “equal and orderly multipolar world” and promote inclusive, mutually beneficial globalisation. The meeting, which is Orsi’s first visit to China as president and comes at a time of heightened global geopolitical tension, also saw the signing of a declaration to deepen the China–Uruguay strategic partnership along with 12 cooperation agreements spanning trade, science, technology and other areas.
read more

5. Russia resumes strikes on Ukraine after brief pause agreed by Putin/Trump ends
After a brief pause in attacks agreed with Trump, including a temporary halt on strikes against Kyiv’s energy infrastructure, Russian forces resumed offensive operations across Ukraine once the temporary ceasefire expired, launching missile and drone strikes on major cities and infrastructure. The renewed strikes have targeted both urban centers such as Kyiv and Kharkiv and critical energy and transportation networks, causing power outages and civilian harm amid freezing winter conditions. This escalation comes as Ukraine and its partners prepare for further peace negotiations in Abu Dhabi.
read more

DAILY DEEP DIVE

EGYPT SECRETLY JOINS THE FIGHT AGAINST THE UAE

Recently we discussed the worsening situation for the UAE’s global plan for regional dominance. First, we had the South Transitional Council collapse after an over ambitious offensive to Yemen’s north, which was quickly restrained and turned back by Saudi-backed government forces and airstrikes. This was a significant blow as it removed closer access to the strategically important Red Sea corridor. Secondly – and what will be the focus today – was the united effort to limit UAE  logistical support to the RSF, its long-time proxy in the Sudan civil war. 

UAE-Foreign Policy Context 
Over the past decade, the UAE has built one of the Middle East’s most expansive power networks, driven by a core goal: insulating its monarchy and economic model from political Islam, Iranian influence, and regional instability. From Yemen to Libya and the Horn of Africa, Abu Dhabi has intervened directly or via proxies, prioritising control of ports, bases, and chokepoints. In Yemen, its backing of the STC and dominance over Red Sea access points has been especially decisive, until its collapse. Taken together, these moves mark the UAE’s transformation into a mini-great power, reshaping regional balances from the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean.

The Saudi-Egypt Blockade
Saudi Arabia and Egypt have begun actively constraining UAE-linked logistics by denying airspace access to cargo flights bound for eastern Libya. Somalia has escalated further, cancelling security agreements with Abu Dhabi and imposing a complete ban on Emirati cargo operations. These coordinated actions aim to roll back UAE influence across the Red Sea and Horn of Africa. The closure of Kufrah Airport, officially for repairs, has removed a critical logistics node, further tightening constraints. As a result, N’Djamena is reportedly the last viable aerial corridor supporting UAE-aligned supply chains, marking a sharp intensification of regional pressure on Emirati networks.

The Agricultural-Turned-Military Airbase Story
A previously quiet desert airstrip in Egypt’s Western Desert, Sharq El Owainat Airport, near the remote East Oweinat agricultural project, has quietly transformed into a strategically significant military hub linked to Sudan’s civil war. Originally built in 2003 to serve agricultural exports and investment, the site underwent substantial upgrades starting in 2018, with construction of a second runway, multiple hangars, and communications infrastructure by 2024, according to satellite imagery and investigative reporting. By the end of 2025, this once-civilian facility was hosting Turkish-made Bayraktar Akinci drones, among the world’s most advanced unmanned combat aerial vehicles, capable of high-altitude, long-endurance missions deep into Sudanese territory.

Operating from this base, Akinci drones (with ranges exceeding 4,500 miles and heavy payload capacities) have been observed striking Rapid Support Forces (RSF) positions, supply convoys, and infrastructure more than 800 miles inside Sudan. The shift marks a departure from Egypt’s earlier cautious stance, which had focused on political backing and logistical support for the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in their struggle against the RSF. Analysts tie this escalation to the RSF’s capture of El Fasher in Darfur in late 2025, a development Cairo viewed as an acute threat to its national security and border stability.

Egypt Tightrope Diplomacy With UAE
Egypt’s engagement underscores competing regional intentions: Cairo is intent on preventing the RSF — a paramilitary group alleged by some foreign officials to receive backing from the United Arab Emirates — from establishing influence along Egypt’s southern frontier. This creates a delicate balance in Cairo’s foreign policy. Egypt maintains deep political and economic links with the UAE, its largest Gulf investor and a key supporter of Egyptian economic stability since 2013, even while actively targeting UAE-aligned forces in Sudan’s conflict. We’re talking about 35 billion dollars directly in Mediterranean projects!

The Drone Wars Continue
The interplay with Turkey is also significant. The Akinci drones themselves are Turkish exports, part of a broader military-technical collaboration that reflects warming Ankara-Cairo ties after years of estrangement. Turkish cargo flights delivering drones and equipment to East Oweinat have been documented, highlighting Ankara’s growing role in shaping aerial dynamics of the war.

Meanwhile, Sudan’s drone war has become highly multilateral: the SAF fields Turkish and Iranian UAVs, the RSF uses Chinese-made CH-95 and other systems reportedly facilitated by UAE networks, and broader Gulf and global powers (including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Russia and Iran) supply or back various factions across the battlefield. This proliferation of drone warfare has helped shift combat away from traditional ground engagements into a prolonged, high-tech aerial contest.

Sources
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Perhaps this is the billion dollar questioning no one is speaking about…

TODAY IN HISTORY

(February 3, 1870): Fifteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution ratified

On this day in 1870, the Fifteenth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States was ratified, guaranteeing the right to vote regardless of race and intending to ensure, with the Fourteenth Amendment, the civil rights of former slaves.