THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Diplomacy is busy but fragile today, with Trump praising a temporary pause in Russian strikes even as Ukraine and Russia sit back down for U.S.-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi.

Elsewhere, Washington and Tehran are preparing for fresh nuclear negotiations in Oman, Portugal’s presidential race is tilting away from the far right, and Middle East power brokers are back at the table as Erdogan meets Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh.

In today’s Deep Dive, we zoom in on Middle East as it seems Iran and Trump believe a diplomatic route is the best route forward - while others think otherwise.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Trump claims Putin ‘kept his word’ despite massive attack on eve of peace talks
Trump said at the White House that Putin “kept his word” by observing a temporary pause in strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for a week, even though Moscow launched a major attack afterward as peace talks were about to resume. The pause, which Trump said ran from Sunday to Sunday, was brokered amid extreme winter cold and intended to reduce attacks on critical civilian infrastructure, but Russia’s subsequent assault with missiles and drones damaged power and heating systems in several Ukrainian cities.
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2. Russia and Ukraine envoys meet in Abu Dhabi for US-brokered talks
Ukraine and Russia have launched a second round of U.S.-brokered peace talks in Abu Dhabi, with delegations from all three countries meeting to discuss ending nearly four years of war and exploring diplomatic pathways forward. Negotiators are holding both joint and issue-specific sessions amid deep divisions over key issues such as territorial control, with Moscow pressing Ukraine to cede occupied regions and Kyiv insisting on a freeze of front lines and security guarantees.
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3. US and Iran to hold nuclear talks in Oman on Friday
The United States and Iran are set to hold nuclear talks in Oman on Friday, after Tehran requested the venue be changed from Turkey and narrowed the agenda strictly to its nuclear program, in an effort to de-escalate rising tensions between the two nations. The move comes amid heightened regional friction even as both sides signal a willingness to negotiate, with Iran insisting its ballistic missile program is off-limits and Washington warning of serious consequences if a deal fails. Discussions are expected to focus exclusively on nuclear issues, with ongoing talks about whether other Arab and Muslim states might participate.
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4. Socialist poised to defeat far-right leader in Portugal presidential vote, poll shows
A new poll released ahead of Portugal’s presidential run-off shows Socialist candidate António José Seguro leading far-right challenger André Ventura by a wide margin, with Seguro polling about 67% to Ventura’s 33% among likely voters. The survey by Catolica University and broadcaster RTP reflects a significant shift since the first round, positioning Seguro as the presumptive winner in Sunday’s head-to-head matchup.
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5. Turkish President Erdogan, Saudi crown prince meet in Riyadh
Erdogan met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh on Tuesday during an official visit aimed at strengthening bilateral relations and marking Erdoğan’s first trip to the kingdom in over two years. Erdogan told the crown prince that Türkiye is determined to elevate cooperation with Saudi Arabia in areas including renewable energy, defence and support for stability and reconstruction in Syria, while both leaders discussed broader regional and global issues.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

WIKOFF AND KUSHNER TO MEET IRAN IN OMAN

Context: 
US-Iran tensions are escalating as nuclear negotiations are poised to resume this week amid a growing military buildup in the Middle East. Both sides have signalled conditional willingness to engage in talks, with Iran insisting discussions focus solely on its nuclear programme and the US pushing for broader terms, including limits on ballistic missiles and support for regional proxies. Tehran has reportedly requested the venue be moved to Oman for Friday’s talks, seeking a more controlled, bilateral format rather than a larger multilateral setting.

The diplomatic effort comes against a backdrop of recent military incidents: the US military shot down an Iranian drone that approached the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, and Iranian boats allegedly harassed a US-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. These confrontations have fuelled fears that tensions could spill over into open conflict if diplomacy fails.

White House officials maintain that negotiations are still planned despite the flare-ups, and regional states including the UAE have urged both sides to strike a sustainable nuclear deal to avoid a broader war. Tehran has signalled readiness for “fair and equitable” negotiations, even as deep mistrust persists over nuclear ambitions and strategic priorities.

Extra: In recent days, it has been reported that the USS Abraham Lincoln has moved away from Iran signalling a possible easing of tensions or heading to safer seas. 

Iran Wants a One-On-One Meeting
The shift of location is interesting as it reflects Iran’s preference for a contained negotiating environment, building on Oman’s long-standing role as a discreet intermediary between the two sides. Oman previously hosted five rounds of mediated US-Iran talks in May 2025, giving the location institutional memory and trusted channels that both sides view as functional under pressure. The talks are expected to include US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, with reports suggesting Jared Kushner may also be involved. Iranian officials have pushed for a strictly bilateral format, rejecting the participation of regional ministers initially expected to attend and signalling resistance to any broader diplomatic framing.

Our Analysis:
It appears the primary objective of this meeting is for the Iranian regime to come to terms with Washington, while avoiding any negotiations that could weaken Iran’s regional position. In the most recent updates, sources say Iran will not negotiate on its ballistic missile program. This further reinforces the idea that whatever deal is being discussed this Friday, Tehran wants it to be explicitly about the U.S. not attacking Iran. If a nuclear deal is what Washington wants, that is what Iran is prepared to offer,  or at least that is likely Tehran’s thinking. By insisting the talks take place in Oman, Iran is attempting to ensure that no other regional rivals are involved — and Iran has many. The Middle East remains a viper’s nest.

Further supporting this theory — according to Wall Street Journal sources — Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s chief diplomat, confirmed he contacted U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff two weeks ago seeking direct meetings with the administration. Why Witkoff? Because he represents a direct line to President Trump.
There are clearly two competing camps within the current U.S. administration: more traditional Republicans and a more isolationist bloc. Witkoff appears closer to the isolationist wing, alongside figures like JD Vance, who has repeatedly urged diplomatic options before military strikes. Iran may be betting that it cannot withstand another fully united U.S.–Israeli military effort. However, Tehran could also be calculating that it can preserve its regional leverage, which would explain its rigid stance on ballistic missiles. That program remains Iran’s key deterrent and a source of regional advantage. Last year’s war demonstrated the damage Iran could inflict on Israel even with degraded systems and disrupted operations on home turf.

And lastly, the elephant in the room – Israel. We can be safe to assume that it was Israel pushing a ballistics program deal, as this is primarily driven by Israeli security concerns not Washingtons. Again, this program is for regional defence and power projection – something that for Washington is not a “life or death” scenario. Furthermore, according to recent sources, it appears that Trump has opened his eyes to the diplomatic route at the expense of Israel's frustration. 

Extra Considerations
Some in the U.S. remain sceptical of Iran’s intentions, warning President Trump that Tehran may be attempting to buy time, avoid American airstrikes, and preserve regime legitimacy amid widespread domestic unrest and economic strain. These officials argue that diplomacy could be used tactically by Iran to ease pressure while maintaining its core capabilities and internal control.  The other consideration is that it’s just really hard to know what President Trump is going to do.  After deciding to strike Iran’s nuclear sites last summer, Trump set a two-week negotiation deadline for Tehran to show meaningful concessions — only to authorize strikes within hours, concluding that talks were being used to delay action rather than resolve the underlying dispute.

Sources
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(February 4, 2003): Yugoslavia officially changed its name to Serbia and Montenegro. Montenegro later declared its independence, splitting the territory into two separate countries.