Famous Ukrainian Unit Takes Large Losses - Questions Are Raised

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Plenty moving across the geopolitical chessboard today: Donald Trump says the Iran war could end within weeks, protests in Belgrade are turning tense, and Romania and Ukraine are exploring a joint drone production push under an EU programme.

Meanwhile, travel restrictions are tightening as Emirates bars Iranian nationals from entering or transiting the UAE, and Russia is investigating a deadly military plane crash in Crimea.

Today we provide an update on the Middle East, as well as digging deep into the controversial failed "Skala" counter-attack costing at least one Abrams tank.

SUPPORT OUR PODCAST!

We just released our first duo-pod, this is a great one to crack open a beer to — more of a relaxed vibe and just a chat about what’s going on in the world.

In the podcast we discussed: Iran, Russia-Ukraine, the potential ground invasion and whether Bibi is alive or not!

Click Here To Listen (And Sub!) - Youtube
We’re Also on Spotify CHA

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Trump says Iran war could end in ‘two weeks’ with or without deal
Trump said the conflict with Iran could end within “two to three weeks,” adding that Washington does not necessarily need a diplomatic deal with Tehran for the fighting to stop. He suggested the United States aims to significantly weaken Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities before withdrawing forces from the conflict. The comments come as the war continues to impact global markets and regional security, with ongoing military operations and diplomatic tensions across the Middle East.
read more 

2. Students clash with police: University of Belgrade protests escalate
Clashes broke out in Belgrade after hundreds of Serbian students and protesters confronted police following a controversial police search of offices at the University of Belgrade. Authorities said the search was linked to an investigation into the death of a 25-year-old student, while protesters accused the government of overreach and seized materials from the university sparked anger on campus. The unrest is part of a broader wave of anti-government protests that have been ongoing across Serbia amid tensions with President Aleksandar Vučić’s administration.
read more

3. Romania and Ukraine explore joint drone production under SAFE programme
Romania and Ukraine are exploring a joint drone production project under the European Union’s SAFE rearmament programme, with talks underway between Ukrainian manufacturers and Romanian defence officials in Bucharest. The initiative could see around €200 million allocated to jointly manufacture drones in Romania, drawing on Ukraine’s battlefield experience and Romania’s industrial capacity. Officials say a dedicated team is being formed to manage the project, with a contract potentially expected in the coming months as defence cooperation between the two countries deepens.
read more

4. Emirates says Iranian nationals barred from entering or transiting UAE
Dubai-based airline Emirates said Iranian nationals are currently barred from entering or transiting through the United Arab Emirates, according to an update posted on the carrier’s website. The restriction comes amid rising tensions between Iran and Gulf states as the broader regional conflict escalates. Another UAE airline, Flydubai, indicated that Iranian nationals holding a UAE “Golden Visa” remain exempt and can still enter or transit the country.
read more

5. Russian military transport plane crashes in Crimea, killing 29, defence ministry says
A Russian An-26 military transport plane crashed in Crimea during a scheduled flight, killing all 29 people on board, according to Russia’s Defence Ministry. The victims included 23 passengers and six crew members, with authorities saying the aircraft lost contact before the crash and rescue teams later located the wreckage. Preliminary reports from Russian officials suggest a possible technical malfunction as the cause, with no indication of external interference.
read more

RECEIVE A COPY OF OUR 2026 RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR PREDICTIONS E-BOOK

In this E-Book you will receive all major frontline updates from Sumy to Kherson, hundreds of kilometres analysed to give you the best predictions of where 2026 will go.
Maps, Units, Analysis, Situation Reports.

Refer five like-minded friends to receive the book!

GLOBAL CONFLICT TRACKER

Iran-USA-Israel
The conflict entered its 32nd day with significant developments on both the military and diplomatic fronts. Iran's Revolutionary Guards fired three waves of missiles at Israel within an hour on Wednesday morning, with fragments striking Tel Aviv and Bnei Brak, wounding at least 16 people including a child.The timing is particularly fraught, as Israelis are preparing to mark the start of Passover. Separately, one of three Iranian missiles struck an oil tanker off Qatar's coast, though no injuries were reported. Iran also launched its 87th wave of regional attacks via its navy, while the IRGC confirmed the death of its naval commander, Admiral Alireza Tangsiri, killed in a recent Israeli strike. On the other side, US and Israeli strikes continued, with thick black smoke reported near Tehran's Sadr Expressway and fires recorded near Mount Soffeh in Isfahan following attacks on an ammunition depot.

Trump signalled the US could stop attacking Iran within two to three weeks, saying a formal deal was not necessary to end the conflict. However, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera that no negotiations are currently taking place, despite ongoing exchanges of messages between the two sides. Stocks rallied on reports that Trump had told White House staff he would be open to ending the war even without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though oil prices remain elevated with Brent crude hovering around $101 a barrel. Iran's IRGC threatened 17 major US tech companies (including Apple, Google, and Microsoft) warning they should expect retaliation for each assassination carried out against Iranian figures. US average petrol prices have meanwhile hit $4 a gallon, their highest level since 2022.

Russia-Ukraine
The 425th Assault Regiment "Skala" has again taken significant losses in the Pokrovsk direction, after a column comprising an M1A1 Abrams tank, an M113 armoured personnel carrier, and two additional APCs was destroyed in the Hryshyne area by Russian FPV drones. Video footage from the incident also shows the bodies of at least a dozen Ukrainian soldiers. The failed counterattack is the latest in a string of costly operations for the unit, which has lost at least three Abrams tanks in failed assaults across the Pokrovsk and Huliaipole areas over the past few months. Even Ukrainian-aligned Telegram channels and commentators have criticised the military leadership following the release of this latest footage, reflecting growing domestic frustration over how the regiment is being deployed.

The Debate: "Meat Grinder" Unit or Mischaracterisation?
The losses have reignited a public dispute between OSINT analyst Thorskil and analysts affiliated with Osint Polo, including Karolina Kuzema. Thorskil's position is that the 425th has functioned as a "meat grinder" unit for over a year, pointing to a Facebook group of 13,000 members (families of soldiers missing from the regiment alone) where a consistent pattern emerges: soldiers aged around 45–50, with only two to three months of service and one to three combat missions before disappearing. He also alleges that some of the regiment's casualties are obscured by being recorded under the 210th Separate Battalion, which is operationally integrated into the 425th but remains formally listed as a distinct unit.

Kuzema's counter-position, as characterised by Thorskil, was that the "meat grinder" label was inaccurate, and that critics lack the ground-level credibility to make such assessments,  an argument Thorskil describes as an ad hominem deflection rather than a substantive rebuttal.

Debate and video source here

Sources available upon request

TWEET OF THE DAY

LOL basically…

TODAY IN HISTORY

(April 1st, 1999): Territory of Nunavut is created

On this day in 1999, Canada's Northwest Territories were divided to create Nunavut. Starting in the mid-1970s, the Inuit (who are indigenous to the land) began petitioning the Canadian government for greater control over their affairs. A 1992 vote allowed the territories to be divided, and two parliamentary acts were approved the following year: the Nunavut Land Claims Agreement Act, which allowed the Inuit to control more than 135,000 square miles of land (350,000 square km) while receiving monetary compensation from the government, and the Nunavut Act, which established Nunavut as a self-governing territory. Today, the Inuit comprise roughly 86 percent of Nunavut's population.