THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Netanyahu’s heading to Washington next week to meet with Trump and top US officials after Israel’s operation against Iran. In Thailand, PM Paetongtarn was suspended over a leaked call with Cambodia, sparking fresh unrest. Tensions hung over Quad talks as Rubio met Indo-Pacific partners.

Turkey detained 157 opposition figures in a sweeping corruption probe, while Russia is pushing for a 14.5-year sentence for ex-defence official Timur Ivanov on bribery charges.

Against this backdrop, we turn our focus eastward, exploring how Trump’s strikes on Iran have sent shockwaves all the way to Taiwan, and why Beijing is watching every move.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Former Russian Deputy Defence Minister faces 14.5 years in prison
Russian prosecutors are seeking a 14.5-year prison sentence for former Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov, accused of embezzling over $67 million through Defence Ministry contracts and bribes. Arrested in April 2024, Ivanov allegedly profited from construction deals and foreign bank transfers, including ferry purchases for Crimea. Known as the “glamorous general,” he was close to ex-minister Sergei Shoigu. Ivanov denies all charges. A verdict is expected in early July after a closed-door trial.
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2. Erdogan cracks down on opposition members
Turkish authorities detained 157 people on Tuesday, including opposition CHP members and Izmir’s former mayor, as part of a corruption probe. The CHP condemned the arrests as politically motivated, comparing them to the earlier jailing of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. CHP Vice President Murat Bakan said the dawn raids were unnecessary and signaled in advance by President Erdogan. The government denies claims of judicial politicisation, but critics say the arrests reflect a broader crackdown on dissent.
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3. Rubio meets Quad members after awkward few months
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Quad foreign ministers on July 1 to reaffirm ties and push back against China’s influence—but tensions are rising behind the scenes. Japan skipped a key defence meeting after US pressure to boost spending, India pushed back on Trump’s claims about Kashmir, and Australia remains uneasy over a review of the AUKUS submarine deal. Despite the friction, all sides say they’re committed to a free and open Indo-Pacific.
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4. Thailand court suspends Thai Prime Minister
Thailand’s Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on July 1 over a leaked phone call with Cambodian leader Hun Sen, pending an ethics probe. Critics say she was too deferential in defusing a deadly border clash. The move triggered protests and renewed political instability, as she became the third Shinawatra PM sidelined before completing a term. Paetongtarn, Thaksin’s daughter, denies wrongdoing and apologized, while her deputy Suriya Jungrungruangkit steps in as acting prime minister.
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5. Trump and Netanyahu to meet next week
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will travel to Washington next week to meet with President Trump, Vice President Vance, and senior US officials. The visit follows Israel’s recent military operation against Iran and comes amid talks of a Gaza ceasefire and possible normalization with Saudi Arabia. Netanyahu also said a new US-Israel trade deal is near, pending final negotiations before his departure.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

WHAT TRUMP’S IRAN STRIKES MEAN FOR TAIWAN AND CHINA

SHOCKWAVES FROM TEHRAN TO TAIPEI

Donald Trump’s decision to support Israel in bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities has not only shaken the Middle East, it’s reverberated all the way to Beijing and Taipei. Despite campaigning on an “America First” platform, Trump showed he’s willing to use military force when strategic interests demand it.

His strikes on Iran, spurred partly by Israel’s pleas, demonstrated that the U.S. still possesses the unique capacity and political will to project hard power globally. While debates rage over how effective the bombings were in crippling Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, China and Russia have watched closely, weighing what this show of force means for their own geopolitical calculations.

CHINA’S CALCULUS: DETERRENCE VS. OPPORTUNITY

At a defense summit in Qingdao, Chinese officials were left to ponder Trump’s unpredictability. For Beijing, the strikes served as a stark reminder that, contrary to popular belief, Trump is not a strict isolationist. Analysts argue Trump’s Iran decision was rooted in a decade-long conviction that Tehran must never acquire nuclear weapons, a principle extending beyond mere personal whims or Israeli influence.

Yet China’s response was measured. Beyond calls for restraint and a ceasefire, Beijing avoided overt involvement. Part of this hesitance stems from economic realities: China is Iran’s top oil customer and trades extensively with the region. Too much alignment with Tehran risks alienating other Middle Eastern partners. At the same time, China remains keenly aware that any distraction of American resources in the Middle East could provide breathing room for its own regional goals, particularly around Taiwan.

IMPLICATIONS FOR TAIWAN

So, what does all this mean for Taiwan? Trump’s willingness to strike Iran signals to Beijing that American military action remains a real option, even from a president viewed as skeptical of foreign entanglements. This could inject caution into Xi Jinping’s calculus over Taiwan, making any plans for rapid action less certain.

However, experts warn there’s a flip side. As Wen-Ti Sung (non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council) notes, if the U.S. becomes bogged down in Middle Eastern conflicts, China could perceive a window of opportunity to escalate tensions over Taiwan, calculating that Washington would be distracted and overextended.

A NEW LAYER OF COMPLEXITY

Ultimately, Trump’s Iran strikes have reintroduced an element of uncertainty into global power dynamics. For China, the message is that U.S. deterrence still carries weight, but so do American distractions. Taiwan sits uncomfortably between those two realities, watching closely as the next moves unfold.

TWEET OF THE DAY

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(July 1, 1867):
The Dominion of Canada was formed this day in 1867, an event subsequently celebrated as an annual Canadian holiday (its current name, Canada Day, was adopted in 1982) marked by parades, fireworks, and the display of flags.