THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

The Middle East is still cooking - fresh airstrikes from Israel, and fresh ballistic missile and drone strikes from Iran. Chinese carriers leave the first island chain for the first time. The internet was divided over Trumps military parade, with many calling it a failure and embarrassment. Big week as the G7 meeting is here, to be in a fly in that room! Iran has also threatened to shut off the Hormuz strait - good day if you have money in oil, bad day if you have to fill up that gas tank.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Israel and Iran continue to exchange blows
Iran and Israel continue trading deadly strikes. Israel expands its targeting to Iranian oil depots and nuclear sites, while Iranian missiles hit Tel Aviv and Haifa. Dozens are dead, hundreds injured. Trump denies U.S. involvement but warns Iran of massive retaliation if U.S. assets are attacked. Strikes have resumed on Tehran, time time allegedly targeting the headquarters of the IRGC. Iran seems to have learnt from their previous two operations last year and is attempting a hybrid operation this time. The April 2024 attack was a fast retaliation and focussed on a large drone strike. The October 2024 strike was months in planning and mostly used Ballistic missiles. The last two days we have seen a fast retaliation with a prominent focus on using ballistic missiles.
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2. Chinese carriers leave first island chain for first time, causing panic in Pacific
China has deployed both its Liaoning and Shandong aircraft carriers for coordinated exercises in the Western Pacific, marking a significant step in projecting naval power beyond the First Island Chain. The drills included strike simulations, anti-submarine warfare, and maritime surveillance. Analysts view this as a signal of Beijing’s intent to normalise carrier group presence far from home waters and prepare for potential Taiwan-related contingencies. While the Liaoning is a retrofitted Soviet carrier, the Shandong is China’s first domestically built.
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3. Trumps military parade: complete bust or patriotic?
President Donald Trump marked the U.S. Army’s 250th anniversary with the largest military parade in decades, featuring nearly 7,000 troops, tanks, fighter jets, and robotic systems in Washington, D.C. Held on Trump’s 79th birthday, the event blended personal symbolism with strategic messaging. While framed as patriotic, critics saw a contradiction - his party campaigned on avoiding foreign entanglements. The parade’s timing, tone, and corporate sponsorship raised concerns about militarized nationalism. Still, some Democrats voiced support, reflecting America’s complex civil-military politics amid a global backdrop of rising tensions and questions over U.S. power projection and credibility.
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4. The most loaded G7 in years kicks off this week
The G7 summit kicks off today in Alberta, and it’s shaping up to be one of the most politically charged in years. With Donald Trump back at the helm, all eyes are on the dynamic between him and longtime allies he’s clashed with before. But it’s not just the personalities, global crises are piling up: the escalating Israel-Iran conflict, Trump’s tariff threats, rising China tensions, and the war in Ukraine are all expected to dominate. Add in sidelined global development priorities and a fractured Western front, and this year’s G7 could reshape more than just headlines.
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5. Iran threatens to shut off Hormuz
Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for nearly 20% of global oil trade, in response to continued Israeli strikes. A closure would disrupt energy markets, spike oil prices, and destabilise global shipping. For oil-importing nations, especially in Asia, the threat intensifies economic vulnerability. The move signals Tehran's willingness to weaponise energy transit in a widening regional conflict. Iran is probably issuing this publicly in an attempt to get the international community to force Israel to back down.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

Ukraines current defensive strategy and why Russia is pushing past it.

Russia is making gains statistically at a faster rate than they were in same time last year, so why is that?

Most frontline trenches are inadequate in the face of 2025 drone warfare

Open trenches, poorly camouflaged with no overhead cover, are easily spotted and hit by drones. Traditional trench lines that stretch across several hundred metres are outdated, as if one section of that 500m trench is breached - the entire trench is now obsolete.

Manpower shortages don’t mix well with an elastic defence

Ukraine simply cannot cover the entire 1,000+ km frontline with equal strength. Russia exploits this by conducting hundreds of daily probing attacks. Even if 99 probes fail, the one that cracks the line becomes the point of breakthrough. As seen in May, Ukraine pulled reinforcements from as far as Sumy to stabilize Toretsk. Within weeks, Kupiansk, Sumy, and Siversk all began to crack.

Russia recruits 20,000+ men a month. Ukraine, by contrast, faces growing AWOL rates, widespread reports of forced conscription, and morale issues tied to ineffective command structures. Even elite brigades are tired, understrength, and cycling through rest at uneven intervals.

Ukraine was hoping for Russia to bang straight on - but its adapted

Unlike Bakhmut or Avdiivka, Russia is now sidestepping Ukrainian strongholds, using envelopment and wedge tactics to isolate and bypass them. The goal is not to bleed forces in urban battles—but to make those battles irrelevant by cutting supply lines and flanking positions. Just look at the map: red arrows move between the blue-circled cities, aiming for encirclement, not direct confrontation.

THIS IS JUST THE START… UKRAINE HAS BUILT A MORE ADVANCED DEFENSE LINE DUBBED THE “DONBAS LINE” - THIS WILL BE IN NEXT WEEKS BREAKDOWN

Sources:
Map Source 1: Vitaly on X, 16/6/2025

TWEET OF THE DAY

Twitter was divided today, with many tweets calling Trumps parade a failure. While others defended it, saying it was long overdue.

TODAY IN HISTORY

(June 15, 1215):

The Magna Carta, a cornerstone of English liberty and a lasting symbol of resistance against tyranny, was sealed by King John on this day in 1215, under threat of civil war. Though initially a peace treaty between the crown and rebellious barons, it would go on to shape legal systems and democratic principles around the world.