THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

It’s been another dramatic 24 hours in global affairs, with tensions between Iran, Israel, and the U.S. inching dangerously closer to open conflict. From Khamenei’s fiery warning to Trump, to the downing of an Israeli drone and a chaotic G7 exit that left Zelenskyy hanging as he claims diplomatic stability is fraying at the edges.

Elsewhere and on sea, two oil tankers collided near the Strait of Hormuz, which could further tighten the knot on global energy routes.

Amid all this chaos, we take a sharp detour into the life and legacy of one of the most enigmatic men in recent geopolitical history: Yevgeny Prigozhin.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Khamenei warns Trump of ‘irreparable damage’ if US intervenes in Israel-Iran conflict
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei took to state television on Wednesday to reject President Trump’s demand for “unconditional surrender,” calling it “inappropriate and offensive” to Iran’s national dignity. He further warned that any U.S. military intervention would lead to “irreparable consequences,” underscoring Tehran’s readiness to retaliate if provoked. This defiant message sets the tone for Iran’s resolve in the face of mounting pressure and highlights the perilous risks of escalation with global powers watching closely.
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2. Trump is yet to make a decision on potential US strikes on Iran
Trump is still weighing whether to involve the U.S. in strikes against Iran’s nuclear and military programs. The topic was raised during a recent National Security Council meeting, though no final decision has been made. The president reportedly hopes that the mere threat of American military involvement will corner Tehran into accepting U.S. demands in the ongoing nuclear negotiations. This strategic brinkmanship underscores Trump’s dual-track approach of juggling potential military escalation with the looming possibility of diplomacy to compel Iran back to the negotiation table.
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3. Iran downs a Hermes 900 drone, marking the first high-value drone Iran has downed
Iran’s air defenses have reportedly shot down their first Israeli aircraft, a Hermes 900 long-endurance UAV, marking a significant moment in the ongoing aerial clash. State media released footage of the wreckage over Isfahan province, with the IDF later confirming a surface-to-air missile strike had brought down the drone during a scouting mission for missile sites.
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4. Zelenskyy warns of a brewing “diplomatic crisis” as Trump abruptly exits G7 early
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned of a brewing “diplomatic crisis” at the G7 summit after U.S. President Trump abruptly exited early, sidelining a planned meeting between the two leaders. Zelenskyy urged G7 nations to maintain pressure and solidarity with Kyiv, calling for a continuation of sanctions and arms provisions despite the fractured summit dynamics.
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5. Two oil tankers collide and catch fire near Strait of Hormuz
Two oil tankers, the Front Eagle and Adalynn, collided and caught fire near the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf of Oman, triggering emergency evacuations of all crew aboard the Adalynn with no injuries reported. While there was no evidence of intentional attack or environmental damage, the collision underscores growing risks to maritime safety and global oil shipping in one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

Putins Chef, Wagner Boss, Hotdog stand entrepreneur. He went by many roles, this is
Yevgeny Prigohzhin.

HISTORY 

Born in Leningrad in 1961, Yevgeny Prigozhin grew up in poverty and turned to petty crime as a teenager. He was sentenced to 13 years in prison for robbery and fraud in the 1980s. After serving nine for apparent good behaviour, he was released. His first business, funded by his parents, was running a hot dog stand. This turned enough profit to eventually get into the restaurant business.  Yevgeny Prigozhin owned the upscale restaurant New Island, a floating riverboat dining venue in St. Petersburg. It became famous in the early 2000s for hosting high-profile guests, including President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President George W. Bush. This marked the beginning of Prigozhin's close ties to the Kremlin.

EARLY RISE

Prigozhin rose through Russia’s underworld and business elite in the 1990s by aligning himself with powerful figures like Boris Spector and Mikhael Mirilashvili, both of whom were deeply embedded in St. Petersburg’s casino and commercial networks. These partnerships introduced Prigozhin to the city’s political class, particularly through Mirilashvili’s ties to Mayor Anatoly Sobchak and his deputy, Vladimir Putin. At the time, both Prigozhin and Putin served managerial roles under wealthier patrons, but their mutual ambitions and shared networks laid the groundwork for a lasting alliance. Prigozhin managed high-end restaurants frequented by Russia’s elite, eventually catering Kremlin events and earning the nickname “Putin’s chef.” This trust opened doors: his companies began receiving lucrative state contracts—including food supply, construction, and military logistics—directly from the Ministry of Defense. Through these connections, Prigozhin secured both wealth and power, ultimately establishing the Wagner Group as an unofficial arm of Russian foreign policy.

PMC Wagner is an illegal Russian military group founded around 2013 and run by Yevgeny Prigozhin. Though unofficial, Wagner was managed by Russia’s General Staff. Prigozhin long denied involvement but admitted founding it in 2022. He recruited prisoners for combat, resulting in high casualties. Wagner's funding is opaque but linked to Prigozhin. Despite its illegal status, Wagner operates with Kremlin support and protection.

FALL FROM GRACE

From the end of 2022, tensions between Wagner chief Prigozhin and Russia’s military leadership—driven by disputes over frontline resources and power struggles with Shoigu—boiled over. Kremlin efforts to sideline Prigozhin triggered his armed rebellion. In June 2023, Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin launched a brief armed rebellion, seizing Rostov and advancing toward Moscow. Putin called it treason, but the mutiny ended abruptly after a deal brokered by Belarus. The fate of Prigozhin was up for debate for weeks, until he was seen in Russia. He had probably thought he was safe. But when his aircraft mysteriously crashed, with evidence of a SAM hit, him and everyone aboard died.

Prigozhin’s apparent assassination, likely sanctioned by Putin himself, marks the final chapter in a relationship built on utility, not loyalty. Despite public praise and a carefully crafted eulogy, the Wagner chief’s revolt humiliated the Kremlin, exposing cracks in Putin’s grip on power. Allowing Prigozhin to walk free after the mutiny was a temporary move to defuse tension. But in Putin’s world, betrayal, even if forgiven publicly, is never forgotten.

Sources:
Forbes Russia. “Как личный кулинар Путина накормит российскую армию” [How Putin’s personal chef will feed the Russian army]. Forbes.ru. Accessed June 18, 2025. https://www.forbes.ru/kompanii/potrebitelskii-rynok/235779-rassledovanie-kak-lichnyi-kulinar-putina-nakormit-rossiiskuyu-a.

Le Monde. “The Many Lives of Yevgeny Prigozhin.” Le Monde, August 25, 2023. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/08/25/the-many-lives-of-yevgeny-prigozhin_6108527_4.html.

Molfar. “Yevgeny Prigozhin.” Molfar Intelligence Blog. Accessed June 18, 2025. http://molfar.com/en/blog/yevgeny-prigozhin.

Novaya Gazeta. “Анатомия проТесто” [Anatomy of Protest]. Novaya Gazeta, April 8, 2012. https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2012/04/08/49159-anatomiya-pro-testo.

Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP). “Person of the Year: Joseph Muscat.” OCCRP. Accessed June 18, 2025. https://www.occrp.org/en/person-of-the-year/joseph-muscat.

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(June 18, 1812):

On this day U.S. President James Madison signed a declaration of war against Great Britain, initiating the War of 1812, which arose chiefly from U.S. grievances over oppressive maritime practices during the Napoleonic Wars.