THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Panama has declared a state of emergency in its main banana-producing region after violent protests over pension reforms escalated, with Chiquita worker strikes turning into clashes and looting. At the Vatican, Pope Leo warned global leaders of the societal risks posed by artificial intelligence, especially its impact on youth. In the Pacific, New Zealand froze $16.9 million in aid to the Cook Islands over agreements with China, citing a breach of their security pact.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump dismissed U.S. intelligence on Iran’s nuclear program, fuelling speculation over possible military action. Tensions also rose between Washington and Tokyo, as Japan canceled high-level defence talks after being pressured to drastically increase military spending—underscoring growing strain within key alliances.

And in today’s deep dive we cover the current and changing role of the IDF in Gaza and Israel.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Panama Declares Emergency Over Banana Worker Protests
Panama declared a five-day state of emergency in Bocas del Toro after violent protests led by banana workers. Shops were looted, buildings vandalised, and roads blocked following mass firings by Chiquita Brands amid a strike against pension reforms. The government suspended civil liberties and allowed warrantless arrests to restore order. Officials blame “radicals” for the unrest, which started a month ago and continues to disrupt the country’s main banana-producing region and wider national stability.
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2. Pope Leo urges nations to consider AI risks
Pope Leo warned global leaders about AI’s risks, especially to youth. Speaking at a Vatican event attended by 68 nations, he urged political action to protect healthy lifestyles and ethical standards. While AI may increase productivity, the pope emphasised long-term social consequences if left unchecked.
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3. New Zealand Freezes Aid to Cook Islands Over China Ties
New Zealand halted $16.9 million in aid to the Cook Islands after the latter signed deals with China without consultation. The Cook Islands called the deals non-binding and focused on climate and development, denying any defense elements. However, New Zealand says this violates their “free association” agreement. The pause reflects growing distrust over China’s role in the Pacific. Wellington says future funding depends on the Cook Islands taking steps to repair diplomatic and security ties.
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4. Trump Rejects Intel on Iran’s Nuclear Intentions 
Donald Trump dismissed U.S. intelligence reports stating Iran isn’t building nuclear weapons, contradicting his DNI, Tulsi Gabbard. Gabbard told Congress Iran halted its program in 2003. Trump insisted Iran was close to a bomb and implied action may be needed. This split reveals internal GOP tension, as isolationists clash with hawks like Lindsey Graham pushing for strikes or regime change. Trump’s decision on Iran policy is expected within weeks amid rising Israel-Iran tensions.
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5. Japan Cancels U.S. Talks Over Defense Spending Demands 
Japan canceled a high-level security meeting with the U.S. after Washington demanded Tokyo raise defense spending to 3.5% of GDP. The sudden hike, pushed by U.S. official Elbridge Colby, angered Japanese officials ahead of elections. The cancelled “2+2” summit reflects deepening tensions in the U.S.–Japan alliance. Japan sees the request as politically risky and excessive.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

THE IDF IN GAZA AND ISRAEL

With all eyes in the skies above Israel, what’s the ground report?

Most of the fighting in Gaza continues to be concentrated in the northern Khan Younis sector, where the majority of Israel’s regular IDF brigades remain stationed. These areas have become the focal point of the ground campaign, as Israel pushes forward with plans to dismantle Hamas' military infrastructure and control key terrain. However, this force posture is expected to shift. Reports suggest the IDF will reduce its troop presence in Gaza by nearly half to reinforce Israel’s northern and eastern borders amid growing concerns of a wider regional war. The threat of Hezbollah attacks from Lebanon and possible infiltration attempts from Jordan and Syria have prompted Israeli defence officials to redirect military resources closer to home.

According to critics, the IDF is reactivating the controversial “Five Finger Policy”—a military strategy designed to divide Gaza into five distinct zones using Israeli-controlled corridors that double as fortified bases. The aim is to fracture Gaza's territorial continuity and limit Hamas' ability to regroup or move freely between regions. Existing corridors include the Philadelphia Corridor along the southern border, the reoccupied Netzarim Corridor that splits Gaza in half, and the Mefalsim Corridor in the northeast. Two more corridors—Kissufim (partially built) and Sufa (not yet constructed)—are reportedly in various stages of implementation. This policy has been criticised for deepening Gaza’s fragmentation and undermining any pathway to a unified civilian recovery.

In Khan Younis, the IDF is applying the “Rafah model,” involving mass evacuations followed by a sweeping military takeover. With Rafah, the Netzarim Corridor, and much of the north under IDF control, Israel now claims to hold approximately 75% of the Gaza Strip. Hamas resistance has thinned in some areas, with many fighters fleeing west toward al-Mawasi, now designated a humanitarian zone.

To ease operational pressure, Israel is reportedly funding and arming local anti-Hamas gangs. These groups are most likely being used to help secure rear areas and will probably be drawn into close-quarters fighting as the conflict drags on. It’s also a calculated move to free up IDF manpower for other fronts, including the possibility of having to man an expanded border with Hezbollah and Jordan.

Even as attention shifts toward a possible confrontation with Iran and its allied militias, Israel remains heavily committed to its operations in Gaza. The question now is whether it can sustain this dual-front war—logistically, militarily, and with the backing of its own population.

Sources:
Associated Press. (2025, June 14). Israel backs an anti-Hamas armed group known for looting aid in Gaza. Here's what we know. https://apnews.com/article/gaza-armed-groups-hamas-israel-looting-b3033fd46a25a6382c8e13d3b4ae7f42

Jewish News Syndicate. (2025, June 18). IDF’s 2025 strategy: A multi‑front war focused on Gaza and Iran. https://www.jns.org/idfs-2025-strategy-a-multi-front-war-focused-on-gaza-and-iran/

Middle East Eye. (2025, June). Is Israel implementing the ‘five fingers’ plan in Gaza? https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/israel-implementing-five-fingers-plan-gaza

Palestine Chronicle. (2025, June 16). Israel redeploys troops from Gaza amid fears of regional escalation – Haaretz. https://www.palestinechronicle.com/israel-redeploys-troops-from-gaza-amid-fears-of-regional-escalation-haaretz/

TWEET OF THE DAY

Western internet is going crazy after finding a treasure trove of old tweets by the Iranian Supreme Leader. This is a thread of all his best tweets:

TODAY IN HISTORY

(June 21, 1945):

Japanese resistance on Okinawa was finally crushed this day in 1945, after nearly three months of fierce fighting following the U.S. invasion. The battle claimed over 200,000 lives—among them more than 12,000 American troops and as many as 150,000 Japanese soldiers and civilians—making it the bloodiest battle of the Pacific War and the final stepping-stone before the planned invasion of Japan’s home islands.