THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Tensions continue to flare across the Middle East as Iran looks to Moscow for support following major U.S. airstrikes, while Israel signals it’s nearing its objectives inside Iranian territory. Meanwhile, some supertankers are reversing course in the Strait of Hormuz amid fears of escalation.

Back in Europe, security anxieties are growing with Britain banning Palestine Action under anti-terror laws. A deadly church bombing in Damascus and Netanyahu’s firm warning against a “war of attrition” round out a turbulent 24 hours.

In today’s deep dive, we shift focus to Russia, where the second anniversary of Wagner’s infamous “March for Justice” raises new questions about the group's legacy and Moscow’s grip on power.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Iran’s Supreme Leader asks Putin to 'do more’ after U.S. strikes
Iran's Khamenei dispatched Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Moscow for urgent talks with Putin following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Araghchi emphasized the "strategic partnership" between Tehran and Moscow, seeking increased Russian support in the face of escalating tensions. Putin condemned the U.S. strikes as "unjustified" and reaffirmed Russia's commitment to diplomatic and nuclear cooperation with Iran. While Russia has expressed strong opposition to U.S. military actions, it has not indicated any plans to provide direct military assistance to Iran.
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2. United Kingdom bans Palestine Action under anti-terrorism laws
The UK government has officially banned the activist group Palestine Action under anti-terrorism laws, making it a criminal offence to belong to or support the organisation. This decision follows a recent incident where activists infiltrated RAF Brize Norton, the UK's largest airbase, and vandalised two military aircraft. The proscription aligns Palestine Action with other banned groups under British law, such as Hamas and al-Qaeda, and has sparked debates over the use of anti-terrorism legislation against protest movements.
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3. Suicide bomber attack on church in Damascus kills at least 25 people
A suicide bombing at the Mar Elias Church in Damascus's Dweila neighbourhood has claimed at least 25 lives and injured over 50 others, marking the deadliest attack in the Syrian capital since the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in December. According to Syria's interior ministry, the assailant, identified as a member of the Islamic State, entered the church during a service, opened fire on congregants, and then detonated an explosive vest.
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4. Two supertankers make U-turns near the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S. military strikes
Following U.S. airstrikes in Iran, at least two oil supertankers reversed course near the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting escalating concerns over maritime safety in this critical shipping lane. These vessels, each capable of transporting approximately 2 million barrels of crude oil, altered their routes amid heightened tensions and potential threats to navigation.
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5. Netanyahu says Israel close to meeting its goals in Iran and will avoid a war of attrition
Netanyahu announced that Israel is "very, very close" to achieving its objectives in Iran, aiming to dismantle the country's nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities. He emphasized that Israel seeks to avoid a prolonged conflict, stating that the military campaign is progressing step by step toward its goals. Netanyahu also highlighted that Iran's Fordow nuclear site had suffered significant damage, with assessments ongoing to determine the full extent.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

Two year anniversary: Wagner Mutiny

"Never strike at a king unless you are sure you shall kill him." - Ralph Waldo Emerson.

On June 23, 2023, Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group launched an armed rebellion against Russia’s military leadership—the most serious internal threat to Vladimir Putin’s rule in over two decades. Though the mutiny collapsed within 24 hours, its ripple effects reshaped Russia’s security architecture.

The immediate trigger was a directive from the Ministry of Defence requiring all private military companies to sign contracts by July 1, effectively folding them into the state’s chain of command. Prigozhin refused, seeing it not just as an administrative order, but as a move to dismantle Wagner and neutralize him personally. While his public feud with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov centered on battlefield mismanagement and poor logistics during the Ukraine war, the underlying conflict ran deeper. As the costly battle for Bakhmut drew to a close, Shoigu and Gerasimov likely assessed that Prigozhin—despite his utility—had become more of a political liability than an asset. He had never been fully accepted into the Kremlin’s inner power structure, unlike the two senior commanders, both longstanding players in Russian elite circles. With Prigozhin’s criticism growing louder, the decision to bring Wagner to heel may have been as much about eliminating a rival as it was about formalizing command.

THE MUTINY
Wagner forces quickly seized the Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov-on-Don. The objective was likely the capture of Shoigu and Gerasimov, but both had already relocated—possibly tipped off or anticipating that such a move was coming. In the weeks prior, they had embarked on a conspicuous frontline tour, likely designed to keep them mobile and away from any single, vulnerable location. Meanwhile, a second Wagner column, led by Dmitry Utkin, advanced rapidly toward Moscow, bypassing resistance along the way. Russian helicopters attacked the convoy, with several aircraft reportedly downed. As the column advanced, Moscow flight prices surged, and senior officials were said to have fled the capital.

THE DEAL
Putin delayed addressing the public, then condemned the rebellion as treason—though notably avoided naming Prigozhin. Within hours, the crisis deescalated. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed to have brokered a deal (though the extent of his role is debatable): Wagner would halt its advance, Prigozhin would avoid prosecution, and fighters could either join the Ministry of Defense or relocate to Belarus.

WOULD IT HAVE WORKED? NO.
It was a desperate hail mary attempt to save the situation. The mutiny lacked a clear theory of victory. Wagner failed to secure its targets, did not dominate the information space, and public support was ambiguous. Even if Moscow had been taken, holding it with 5,000 men would have been symbolic at best. The government could have simply reconstituted elsewhere.

WHAT HAPPENED AFTER
Prigozhin was exiled and died in a plane crash two months later—widely seen as an assassination. Wagner’s assets were gradually absorbed by the state or repositioned to Africa under new leadership. The rebellion also triggered a purge: General Sergey Surovikin vanished, later resurfacing in Algeria; other commanders were sidelined or reassigned.

WAGNER’S LEGACY
The legacy of Wagner depends largely on perspective. Many Russian nationalists—critical of command failures reminiscent of Soviet-era blunders but supportive of Russia's regional ambitions—view Wagner as a kind of rogue corrective force, almost a Robin Hood moment. Others see them purely as criminals. To the West, the mutiny revealed deep fractures and vulnerabilities within the Kremlin’s political architecture.

Sources/Links:
Perun YouTube Analysis

Euromaidan Press, May 2025

Washington Post, September 2023

TWEET OF THE DAY

* She was meant to only go and pick up a rotisserie chicken and bread rolls *

TODAY IN HISTORY

(June 23, 2016):

The United Kingdom held a historic referendum in which 51.9% voted in favor of leaving the European Union, while 48.1% opted to remain. It marked the first time a member state chose to exit the EU, a turning point now known as “Brexit.