THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

A packed edition today as world leaders gather at The Hague for the 2025 NATO Summit, setting the stage for high-stakes diplomacy amid rising global tensions.

From Gaza to Ukraine and Sudan, fresh violence and humanitarian crises dominated headlines overnight. Meanwhile, Trump insists the Israel–Iran ceasefire still holds, despite clear violations.

Today’s deep dive wraps the first day of the Summit, spotlighting key agenda items, Indo-Pacific attendance and a slight shaky start to proceedings.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Trump insists the Israel-Iran ceasefire remains in-place despite violations by both sides
Trump announced that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains "in effect," despite acknowledging violations by both sides. He criticized Israel for conducting airstrikes after the truce was declared and accused Iran of launching a missile, though Tehran denies any post-ceasefire attacks. Trump emphasized that the ceasefire is still valid… Oh and he dropped the F-Bomb claiming “they both don’t know what the F**k they’re doing”.
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2. Russian missile attack kills 9 and damages passenger train in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk
A Russian missile strike on Ukraine's southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region on June 24 killed at least nine people and injured nearly 70, including 10 children. The two-wave attack heavily impacted the regional capital, Dnipro, damaging schools, kindergartens, a hospital, and a passenger train.Ukrainian officials have called on Western allies to increase pressure on Moscow, as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seeks enhanced military aid at the NATO summit in The Hague.
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3. Israeli forces kill at least 40 Palestinians in Gaza and order new evacuation
Israeli airstrikes on Gaza on Tuesday killed at least 40 Palestinians, according to local medics and residents, amid ongoing military operations across the enclave. The strikes targeted areas including the Jabalia refugee camp in the north and Bani Suhaila in the south, with reports of homes and civilian infrastructure being hit. The Israeli military has issued new evacuation orders in parts of Gaza, further displacing residents already affected by months of conflict.
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4. Netherlands announces new 175 million euro aid package for Ukraine
The Netherlands has announced a new €175 million military aid package for Ukraine, reinforcing its commitment to support Kyiv amid ongoing conflict. This package includes 100 drone-detection radars and 20 medical evacuation vehicles, aimed at enhancing Ukraine's air defense capabilities and medical response infrastructure. Additionally, €80 million of the aid is allocated to drone support through the international drone coalition, further bolstering Ukraine's unmanned aerial capabilities.
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5. Over 40 people killed in a drone strike on a Sudan Hospital, including children
Over the weekend, an attack on Al Mujlad Hospital in Sudan's West Kordofan region resulted in the deaths of over 40 individuals, including six children and five healthcare workers, according to confirmation from the World Health Organization (WHO) on Tuesday. The hospital, situated near the front lines of the ongoing conflict between Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, sustained extensive damage.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

THE NATO 2025 SUMMIT: AWKWARD FAMILY LUNCH VIBES

SHAKY START AS DUTCH GOVERNMENT CLAIMS POSSIBLE “SABOTAGE”
The 2025 NATO Summit opens under tight security in The Hague, amid reports of suspected sabotage to Dutch rail infrastructure. On Tuesday morning, a fire damaged roughly 30 cables near Schiphol Airport, causing major disruptions to train service between Amsterdam and the airport. Authorities are investigating the incident as possible sabotage. Meanwhile, pro-Russian hacker group NoName057(16) launched denial-of-service attacks on Dutch municipalities and NATO-linked organisations.

THE MAIN AGENDA

1. Defence spending
The summit's agenda is deliberately short and focused. The central item is a new collective defence spending target: 5% of GDP. The proposed model includes 3.5% allocated to core defence capabilities and 1.5% toward infrastructure and cybersecurity. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte emphasised the urgency of closing the production gap between military demand and current industrial output, citing shortages in air defence systems, armoured vehicles, and artillery munitions. 

2. Support for Ukraine
Support for Ukraine remains on the agenda, though in more restrained terms than in previous years. NATO will reaffirm its political and logistical backing but is unlikely to issue strong commitments. President Zelenskyy’s reduced role at the summit reflects broader allied caution, particularly from Washington, amid fears of provoking escalation with Russia.

3. Better Industrial cooperation among European members and America 
Defence industrial cooperation and transatlantic defence procurement will also be discussed, alongside the long-term rebalancing of strategic burden-sharing. NATO is expected to push for deeper collaboration between defence industries across Europe and North America, in order to meet increased operational demands.

INDO-PACIFIC MEMBERS SNUB SUMMIT
However, political tensions remain high. President Donald Trump’s past criticisms of NATO and open threats to abandon Article 5 obligations for underspending allies continue to erode trust within the alliance. Trump has made clear that the new 5% threshold is non-negotiable. His unpredictable behaviour (illustrated by his early departure from the G7) has led organisers to minimise both the agenda and public visibility of this year’s gathering according to some sources.

Further complicating the summit’s optics, leaders from key Indo-Pacific partners (Japan, South Korea, and Australia) have withdrawn. U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities  were the reason given by South Korea’s president. Japan cancelled allegedly due to the US pushing its 5% spending agenda. While Canberra signalled relations are not sour, but Prime minister Albanese will only arrive if there is a guaranteed sit-down with Trump (after being snubbed twice.

Sources:
AP News. (2025, June 24). Dutch authorities investigate possible sabotage against rail network as NATO summit opens. Retrieved from https://apnews.com/article/nato-summit-train-sabotage-investigation-dcb29f0e126512811fac4b95d7662cac

Brookings Institution. (2025, June). What to expect at the NATO summit in The Hague. Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-to-expect-at-the-nato-summit-in-the-hague/

NATO. (2025, June 23). Pre-summit press conference by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Retrieved from https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_236509.htm

NATO. (2025). NATO Summit in The Hague – Key Topics. Retrieved from https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/235800.htm

South China Morning Post. (2025, June 23). South Korea’s NATO no-show: pragmatism or diplomatic shift? Retrieved from https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3315435/south-koreas-nato-no-show-pragmatism-or-diplomatic-shift

TWEET OF THE DAY

* How the last 24 hours in the Israel-Iran conflict has felt like *

TODAY IN HISTORY

(June 24, 1812):

On this day in 1812, Napoleon Bonaparte began his ill-fated campaign against Russia, leading his Grand Army—some 600,000 strong—across the Neman River from Poland. The invasion aimed to pressure Tsar Alexander I but ultimately marked the beginning of one of Napoleon’s most disastrous military endeavours.