THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From deadly airstrikes in southern Lebanon to floods ravaging Venezuela, the world remains on edge, even as Trump claims a new China trade deal.

Elon Musk eyes Lebanon for Starlink expansion, hinting at shifting tech and geopolitical currents in the region. Meanwhile, Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” barrels toward a Senate vote that could redefine America’s economy and borders… apparently.

Today, we head to the Mediterranean, where simmering tensions are rising as some Cypriots voice worries about Israel’s growing presence on their island, a sentiment steeped in decades of complex history between Israel and Cyprus.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. 1 killed and 11 wounded in Israeli strikes on South Lebanon
Israeli fighter jets launched over a dozen airstrikes targeting hilltops near Nabatieh in southern Lebanon, aiming to dismantle Hezbollah's efforts to restore a previously destroyed military site. The Israeli military stated that the strikes were in response to Hezbollah's attempts to rebuild its fire and defence infrastructure, which it claims violates the U.S.-brokered November ceasefire. The airstrikes resulted in the death of one woman and injuries to at least 11 others, including damage to an apartment building in Nabatieh.
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2. Trump hosts ‘big bill’ event to rally Republicans to support the megabill.
Trump hosted a "One Big Beautiful Bill" event at the White House, urging lawmakers to pass his sweeping tax and spending legislation. He described the bill as a transformative measure to "secure our borders, turbocharge our economy, and bring back the American dream." Despite the House passing its version, the Senate faces challenges, including internal GOP divisions and procedural hurdles, as it aims to vote on the bill before the July 4 deadline.
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3. Elon Musk’s Starlink seeks license to operate in Lebanon
Musk has expressed interest in expanding Starlink's satellite internet services to Lebanon, engaging in discussions with President Joseph Aoun to address the nation's struggling telecommunications infrastructure. This initiative aims to provide high-speed internet access across various sectors, including education, banking, and government services. Concurrently, the United States is constructing a new embassy complex in Beirut, projected to be the second-largest U.S. embassy globally, underscoring a significant investment in diplomatic presence and regional influence.
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4. Emergency declaration after heavy rainfall causes widespread flooding in Venezuela
Torrential rains from tropical waves 8 and 9 have unleashed devastating floods and landslides across western Venezuela, prompting a national emergency declaration. The states of Mérida, Trujillo, and Barinas have been hardest hit, with overflowing rivers sweeping away homes, collapsing bridges, and isolating communities. Over 4,700 people have been displaced, and emergency crews are working to restore access, deliver aid, and monitor rising water levels amid forecasts of continued heavy rainfall.
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5. Trump says US has signed trade deal with China
Trump has announced that the United States and China have finalised a significant trade agreement, marking a potential end to the prolonged trade tensions between the two nations. The deal includes China's commitment to resume exports of rare earth minerals to the U.S., which are vital for various high-tech industries, in exchange for the U.S. lifting certain export restrictions, including those on ethane.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

VOICES OF CONCERN OVER ISRAELI INFLUENCE IN CYPRUS

Historty
In recent decades, the relationship between Israel and Cyprus has evolved from cautious neighbourliness to a robust strategic partnership. Historically, Cyprus played a pivotal role in Israel’s post-World War II story. Between 1946 and 1949, over 50,000 Jewish refugees were interned in British-run camps in Cyprus before arriving to the State of Israel. This legacy still resonates, framing Cyprus as a symbol of refuge and resilience within Jewish collective memory.

Following Israel’s strike on Iran in June 2025, Cyprus has become a temporary sanctuary for thousands of Israelis. Over 15,000 Jews were stranded on the island following widespread flight cancellations. Chabad houses across Larnaca, Limassol, and Paphos rapidly mobilised to provide shelter, food, and spiritual support. One operation even hosted 1,500 stranded Birthright students who arrived via cruise ship.

In March 2025, Israeli launched “Operation Safe Return,” a large-scale effort coordinated with the IDF to fly thousands of stranded Israelis home. The operation relied heavily on Greek and Cypriot ports for airlifts and sea transport.

ISRAELI PROPERTY OWNERSHIP AND CONCERNS

According to Cypriot government data, Israeli nationals rank among the top four foreign property buyers in key districts like Larnaca, Limassol, and Paphos. Over 1,400 properties were acquired in Larnaca alone since 2021, with increasing concentration in specific areas.

The growing Israeli presence in Cyprus has provoked political backlash, particularly from the left-wing party Akel. Its leader, Stefanos Stefanou, accused Israelis of making “targeted” land purchases aimed at forming gated communities in Limassol and Larnaca, and cited the construction of “Zionist schools” as a national security concern. Akel has since introduced legislation to restrict the sale of land to non-EU nationals and tighten oversight of Cyprus’s “golden visa” investment program. Tensions have been further exacerbated by security incidents, including the recent arrest of a British national suspected of conducting surveillance for Iran near RAF Akrotiri. Meanwhile, reports of anti-Semitic graffiti have surfaced in Limassol.

While Israeli nationals rank among the top foreign property buyers in Cyprus—particularly in areas like Pyla, Ormideia, and Pervolia—they are not alone. In districts such as Larnaca, Limassol, and Paphos, UK, Russian, and Lebanese nationals also account for a significant share of real estate purchases. Cypriot citizens, however, continue to lead overall in property ownership across the island. But the concern is over the “close-gated” communities in majority Israeli areas.

GEOPOLITICS: ISRAEL, TURKEY AND CYPRUS

Strategically, Cyprus’s importance to Israel goes far beyond real estate. Alongside Greece, the three countries have cultivated a trilateral alliance marked by joint military exercises, defence technology transfers (such as Elbit Systems’ training programs) and ambitious energy plans. Discussions around the EastMed pipeline and shared electricity grids underscore the economic dimension of the alliance.

Cyprus also offers Israel strategic depth in the region’s shifting power balance. As Turkey expands its influence through military activity in Northern Cyprus and aggressive maritime claims in the Eastern Mediterranean, closer cooperation between Nicosia and Jerusalem offers a geopolitical counterweight. With both nations wary of Ankara’s ambitions, their alignment serves as a quiet but calculated check on Turkish assertiveness in the region.

Sources:

Cyprus Mail – Akel focuses on Israelis and ‘Cyprus for sale’ fears (June 24, 2025)
https://cyprus-mail.com/2025/06/24/akel-focuses-on-israelis-and-cyprus-for-sale-fears

Jerusalem Post – As ceasefire holds, thousands of Israelis return from Cyprus (June 26, 2025)
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-857879#google_vignette

The National News – Ceasefire with Iran gives Israelis a chance to return from temporary Cyprus haven (June 26, 2025)
https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2025/06/26/ceasefire-with-iran-gives-israelis-a-chance-to-return-from-temporary-cyprus-haven/

Times of Israel – Cyprus Chabad inundated by thousands of Israelis trying to find way home (June 25, 2025)
https://www.timesofisrael.com/cyprus-chabad-inundated-by-thousands-of-israelis-trying-to-find-way-home/

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(June 27, 1787):
Edward Gibbon Completed the final volume of his monumental work, The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. Spanning six volumes and over two decades of writing, Gibbon’s work remains one of the most influential historical studies in Western literature, known for its critical analysis, classical prose, and bold thesis that Rome fell due to internal decay as much as external invasion.