THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Tensions remain high across the globe, from Tehran’s solemn farewell to military leaders killed in conflict with Israel, to Viktor Orbán warning that Ukraine’s NATO bid could spark war with Russia.

Technological leaps keep grabbing headlines as Tesla’s first self-driving Model Y hits the road solo, while deadly violence continues to rock Pakistan’s northwest. Meanwhile, Trump has thrown U.S.-Canada trade relations into disarray, abruptly halting talks and threatening new tariffs.

Today’s deep dive explores how Iran, facing growing security threats and battered Russian arms deals, is now eyeing China’s Chengdu J-10C fighter jets as it rethinks its air force for the future.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Iran holds state funeral for military commanders and nuclear scientists
Iran held a state funeral in Tehran on Saturday for approximately 60 individuals, including top military commanders and nuclear scientists killed during the recent 12-day conflict with Israel. President Masoud Pezeshkian and other senior officials attended the ceremony, which honored figures such as Armed Forces Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri and Revolutionary Guards Commander General Hossein Salami. The funeral, described by state media as the "procession of the Martyrs of Power," drew thousands of mourners.
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2. Hungarian PM issues warning that Ukraine’s NATO membership poses war threat
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has issued a stark warning, asserting that Ukraine's accession to NATO would precipitate an immediate war with Russia. He criticized the European Union's push for Ukrainian membership, labeling it as "insanity" and likening it to "throwing matches on a powder keg." Orbán emphasized that Ukraine is neither a NATO nor EU member and stated, "My job is to keep it that way," underscoring his commitment to preventing further escalation in the region.
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3. Tesla’s first self-driving Model Y delivery arrives early
Tesla has achieved a significant milestone in autonomous driving by successfully completing its first fully driverless vehicle delivery. A Model Y SUV autonomously navigated from Tesla's Gigafactory in Austin to a customer's home, covering both highways and city streets without any human intervention. The delivery, which occurred a day ahead of schedule, was announced by CEO Elon Musk on his 54th birthday, marking a notable advancement in Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology.
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4. At least 13 soldiers killed in suicide bombing in northwestern Pakistan
A suicide bombing in North Waziristan, near the Afghan border, killed at least 13 Pakistani soldiers and injured over two dozen others, including civilians and children. The attack occurred in Mir Ali when a vehicle laden with explosives rammed into a military convoy during a security operation under curfew. While no group has claimed responsibility, the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) and other militant groups are active in the region.
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5. Trump abruptly cuts off trade talks with Canada
President Donald Trump abruptly terminated trade negotiations with Canada on Friday, citing Canada's implementation of a 3% digital services tax on major U.S. technology firms as a "blatant attack." He announced plans to impose new tariffs on Canadian goods within a week, reversing recent progress made during a cordial G7 meeting earlier in June. Despite this escalation, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed the impact, suggesting that a Section 301 investigation may follow to justify $2 billion in retaliatory tariffs.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

CHATTER ABOUT NEW IRAN-CHINA FIGHTER JET DEAL

Speculation is mounting over Iran’s potential purchase of up to 40 Chinese J-10C fighter jets, coinciding with Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh’s visit to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) defence summit. While sources like The National Interest remain unreliable, it will be an interesting deep dive hypothetical nonetheless!

Tehran’s air force, still reliant on aging U.S.- and Russian-made aircraft, was exposed during the “12-day war”, when Israeli aircraft struck Iranian targets with impunity. Iranian jets failed to scramble, and Israel continued short-range bombing missions over Tehran and Western Iran with no major visible concern for surface-to-air defences. Iran’s air defence radars and systems were severely degraded with electronic warfare, sabotage, and targeted missile strikes. Notable mention: Israel had destroyed the Iranian-operated air defences in Syria while Assad was in power, and dealt the final airstrike blow during Jolani’s takeover. Their destruction opened up new a straight fly path to Tehran.

TROUBLE IN PARADI…MOSCOW
Frustration with Russia has only compounded these vulnerabilities. Moscow’s failure to deliver Su-35 jets, officially blamed on logistical hurdles, is seen by some as a political decision (linked to Putin’s rapport with Israeli leadership). Left with few options, Iran appears to be pivoting toward Beijing.

LET’S LOOK INTO THE HYPOTHETICAL: IF THE DEAL IS REAL
The J-10C, China’s most advanced iteration of its multirole fighter platform, offers a compelling solution. It features AESA radar, canard-delta agility, and integration with the PL-15E long-range missile, giving it a credible beyond-visual-range strike capability. Its proven performance during Pakistan’s reported downing of Indian Rafales has boosted its appeal globally.

The Su-35 and J-10C differ significantly in size, cost, and operational range—each suited to different strategic needs. The Russian Su-35 is a heavyweight air superiority fighter, boasting a range of 3,600 km, maximum takeoff weight of 34.5 tons, and top speed of Mach 2.25. It's larger (21.9m length) and more expensive, with an estimated unit cost of $65 million. In contrast, China’s J-10C is a lighter multirole jet, with a range of 1,850 km, maximum takeoff weight of 19.3 tons, and top speed of Mach 2.2. At just $27.8 million per unit (2010 estimate), it offers a lower-cost, more agile option—particularly suited to countries with mountainous terrain or limited airbase infrastructure. While the Su-35 is better for long-range missions and payload capacity, the J-10C is faster to train on and cheaper to field in numbers.

IT TAKES MORE THAN JUST A SHINY NEW TOY
However, key roadblocks remain. Without a functioning radar surveillance network, Iran’s ability to detect, coordinate, and deploy its air force remains severely impaired. Intelligence blind spots, suspected sabotage networks, and internal inefficiencies could delay or nullify the combat effectiveness of even the most advanced jets. New aircraft are only as effective as the systems guiding them—and right now, Iran’s air defence infrastructure is fragmented at best, nonfunctional at worst.

Chinese jets won’t be the magical fix. Iran needs to complete evaluation and repair of its air defence systems and tighten internal security—all under the eyes of a watchful U.S. and Israel.

Sources:
Armed Forces EU. "Compare Multirole Aircraft: Sukhoi Su-35 vs Chengdu J-10." https://armedforces.eu/compare/multirole_aircraft_Sukhoi_Su-35_vs_Chengdu_J-10
Disclose.tv. "Iran Eyes Chinese J-10C Jets Amid Delay in Russian Deliveries." https://www.disclose.tv/id/k7rawd5fsy/
National Interest. "Iran Preparing to Buy a New Air Force from China." https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/iran-preparing-buy-new-air-force-from-china-bw
The Asia Live. "Iran Weighs J-10C Fighter Acquisition from China as Prolonged Su-35 Delays from Russia Test Tehran’s Patience." (28 June 2025) https://theasialive.com/iran-weighs-j-10c-fighter-acquisition-from-china-as-prolonged-su-35-delays-from-russia-test-tehrans-patience/2025/06/28/
The National News. "How Israel’s Actions in Syria Cleared Safe Corridor to Establish Air Supremacy Over Iran." (18 June 2025) https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2025/06/18/how-israels-actions-in-syria-cleared-safe-corridor-to-establish-air-supremacy-over-iran/

TWEET OF THE DAY

Does the country with the most reliable and cheap energy win…? very interesting chart.

TODAY IN HISTORY

(June 28, 1914):
On this day in 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary and his wife, Sophie, were killed in Sarajevo by Gavrilo Princip—an event that set in motion the chain of events leading to World War I.