THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From battlefields in Ukraine to diplomatic gambits in the Mediterranean, today’s headlines remind us how quickly the geopolitical chessboard can shift.

Russia claims new ground in Dnipropetrovsk, Germany pushes fresh sanctions, and Cyprus extends an olive branch to Turkey, while Israel reels from an unprecedented settler attack on its own soldiers. Meanwhile, Moscow and Baku lock horns over arrests that have ignited a new diplomatic rift.

Against this backdrop, we turn our focus to Central Africa, where a landmark peace deal between the DRC and Rwanda could finally ease one of the continent’s most devastating conflicts.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Russian forces claim new victory with the capture of the village of Dachnoye
Russian forces have reportedly captured the village of Dachnoye in Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region, marking their first claimed gain in that area since the war began. While Ukrainian officials have not confirmed the capture, the advance would represent a symbolic breach into a region previously untouched by Russian ground forces. This move comes amid broader Russian offensives across eastern Ukraine, including recent territorial gains near Kostyantynivka and the seizure of a major lithium deposit in Donetsk, as Moscow continues to pressure Kyiv during stalled peace negotiations.
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2. Germany expects EU’s Russia sanctions package to be agreed this week
Germany anticipates that the European Union will approve its 18th sanctions package against Russia this week, according to a government spokesperson. The proposed measures, introduced by the European Commission on June 10, aim to target critical sectors of the Russian economy, including energy revenues, banking, and the military industry, in response to Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. The proposal is set to be reviewed at the ambassadorial level following a European Commission visit to Slovakia later in the week.
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3. Tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan rise
Tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan have escalated following the Kremlin's condemnation of Baku's reaction to the recent arrests of ethnic Azerbaijanis in Russia. Russian authorities detained six individuals in Yekaterinburg in connection with historical crimes, with two suspects dying in custody. One reportedly from heart failure. Azerbaijan accused Russian police of ethnically motivated extrajudicial killings, a claim Moscow denies. In response, Baku canceled Russian cultural events, suspended bilateral talks, and conducted raids on the office of Sputnik Azerbaijan, further straining diplomatic relations between the two nations.
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4. Cypriot president invites Erdogan to EU Summit to talk Reunification
Cyprus has extended an invitation to Turkish President Erdoğan to attend a summit during its 2026 European Union presidency, despite the enduring rift stemming from Turkey's 1974 invasion of the island. President Nikos Christodoulides emphasized the importance of regional dialogue, stating that Turkey, as a neighboring country, is welcome to participate in the summit, which will focus on Middle East issues. This diplomatic overture is significant, considering the longstanding division of Cyprus and the absence of formal diplomatic relations between the two nations. The Turkish presidency has not yet responded to the invitation.
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5. Israeli settlers rampage at a military base in the West Bank
In a rare escalation, Israeli settlers have attacked IDF soldiers and vandalized military infrastructure in the West Bank, prompting Defense Minister Israel Katz to convene an emergency meeting. Katz condemned the violence, stating, “No one will dare raise a hand against IDF soldiers,” and vowed to “completely uproot” the extremist behavior. The attacks, including a rampage at a military base near Ramallah, have drawn widespread condemnation from Israeli leadership and highlighted growing tensions between radical settler groups and state security forces.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

THE DRC RWANDA PEACE AGREEMENT

WHAT HAPPENED?

On June 27th, the DRC and Rwanda signed a peace agreement brokered by the US with the support of Qatar. This deal marks the most high-profile attempt in years to de-escalate one of Africa’s deadliest ongoing conflicts.

WHAT IS THE CONFLICT ABOUT?

The DRC-Rwanda conflict is rooted in the aftermath of the 1994 Rwandan genocide, which drove Hutu extremist militias, including the FDLR, into eastern Congo. This triggered two regional wars with far-reaching humanitarian consequences. Despite a 2002 peace agreement, the region has remained structurally unstable, marked by weak governance and persistent foreign interference.

In this context, the Tutsi-led M23 rebel group emerged in 2012, accusing Kinshasa of failing to uphold earlier agreements on political inclusion and military integration. Though initially defeated, M23 regrouped in exile and re-emerged in 2021, claiming to defend Tutsi communities and interests. By early 2025, the group had captured Goma, Bukavu, and other strategic cities. The toll: thousands killed, and over 5 million people internally displaced across eastern Congo.

WHAT IS THE DEAL ABOUT?

In summary, the countries agreed to end all support for non-state armed groups. Key provisions of the deal include a pledge to cease hostilities and respect territorial integrity, the withdrawal of Rwandan troops from eastern Congo within 90 days, and the disarmament of all non-state armed groups operating in the region. Importantly, the agreement also calls for the ‘neutralisation’ of the FDLR.

Beyond security, the deal aims to deepen cross-border trade and investment, opening the door for international (especially American) involvement in Congo’s eastern region.

INTERESTS?

Though the U.S. officially cites peacebuilding and regional security, the US intentions in brokering this agreement are far from neutral. This matters because the region is home to vast reserves of critical and high value minerals. Currently, it is China that dominates the DRC’s mining sector. For the US, this deal is an opportunity to support peace, but most importantly, counter Chinese influence by increasing American investment and involvement in the DRC’s mining sector.

OUTLOOK?

While this agreement is a promising step for stability in the region, it faces significant challenges and uncertainties in implementation. One of the most pressing issues is the exclusion of key actors from the negotiation process, most notably the M23 rebel group, whose insurgency lies at the heart of the current crisis.

Additionally, after years of hostilities and previous broken agreements, trust between Kinshasa and Kigali is extremely low. Congolese civil society leaders also criticized the agreement for lacking transparency and for failing to address justice for victims.

Ultimately, whether this deal lays the foundation for lasting peace or joins the long list of failed accords will depend on what follows — not what was signed.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Have any of our readers been watching the most recent season of Squid Game? The internet world have some mixed reactions it seems…

TODAY IN HISTORY

(June 30, 1914):
On this date in 1934 occurred the “Night of the Long Knives,” in which German dictator Adolf Hitler had his elite SS guards summarily execute many leading officials of the SA, a Nazi paramilitary group.