THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From a deadly wave of Russian strikes on Kyiv to leadership changes in Algeria and growing debates over Israel’s future, it’s been a day full of developments shaping global politics.

We also cover stories ranging from corporate protests in the U.S. to a tragic attack in Minneapolis.

And by reader request, today’s deep dive brings you part two of our look at the 2025 Summer Offensive, examining BILD’s claim that Russia’s push has failed and what the real picture on the ground looks like.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Russian missile and drone attack on Kyiv kills at least 18 people
Russia unleashed one of its most intense missile and drone barrages on Kyiv early Thursday, launching over 600 drones and nearly 30 missiles. The attack killed at least 18 people, including four children, and caused extensive damage across the city, notably striking the EU Mission and the British Council offices. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy sharply condemned the assault as a “rejection of diplomacy,” while EU and UK leaders demanded accountability and stepped up calls for stronger sanctions.
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2. Algeria’s President appoints new acting Prime Minister
Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune signed a decree on Thursday dismissing Prime Minister Nadir Larbaoui and appointing Industry Minister Sifi Ghrieb as the acting head of government, according to state media reports. Larbaoui, a career diplomat and former head of the presidential cabinet, had served as prime minister since late 2023, while no official reason was provided for his abrupt removal. Ghrieb steps into the role during a period of political stability for Algeria signalling a carefully managed leadership transition.
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3. 2 Microsoft workers fired after occupying president’s office to protest Israel ties
Two Microsoft employees were fired on Wednesday after taking part in a sit-in protest inside the office of company President Brad Smith—demonstrating against Microsoft’s ties to Israel amid the ongoing Gaza war. The protest, led by the activist group No Azure for Apartheid, called on the tech giant to sever its relationship with Israel, citing mounting concerns over its involvement in surveillance and military operations using the Azure platform.
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4. Shooter kills 2 Minneapolis school children in Catholic Church & wounds 17
A gunman opened fire through stained-glass windows during a morning Mass at Annunciation Catholic School in Minneapolis, killing two children aged 8 and 10 and injuring 17 others, including students and elderly parishioners. The assailant, identified as 23-year-old former student Robin Westman, died by suicide at the scene, and authorities are investigating the attack as both a domestic terrorism act and a hate crime targeting Catholics. Among the shocking evidence found was a manifesto and social media content praising past mass shooters and containing hateful, extremist messages left in the shooter’s wake.
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5. Israeli Foreign Minister Saar says there will not be a Palestinian State
Israel’s Foreign Minister, Gideon Saar, made it clear on Wednesday in Washington that “there will not be a Palestinian state,” emphasizing Israel’s firm stance against the two-state solution following a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. His remarks underscore mounting skepticism in Israel’s leadership toward Palestinian sovereignty, even as some global allies gear up to formally recognize a state.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

THE 2025 SUMMER OFFENSIVE: SUCCESS OR FAILURE? PART 2

A moment in the frontline, Summer 2025
The sky shakes with artillery and missile strikes, each one crashing like thunder. Around you, everything is dead trees, snapped in half and burned to black stumps, the ground torn apart into mud and filth. The summer heat makes it worse, pressing down until every breath tastes of smoke, dirt, and sweat. You sit low in the trench, knee-deep in water and slime, hoping the walls hold. Above, the “birds” never stop. Hundreds of FPV drones buzz overhead, the sound drilling into your head, day and night. They circle, waiting, always looking for someone else to kill.

We wrote a report discussing the results of the Russian offensive. In that report we mostly added our own rebukes and beliefs regarding Julian Röpke’s statement that Russia’s offensive had failed. Today we will focus on the trends we have noticed during this period.

DRONE USAGE
Drone teams have become decisive forces in the war, far more than in previous years. Units like Ukraine’s “Madyar’s Birds” and Russia’s “Rubikon Center” now operate as specialised strike groups with the ability to shift the outcome of battles. Their reputation is legendary online but loathed on the ground, as constant innovation in tactics and technology continues to raise their effectiveness. Both sides’ UAV groups are in a rapid innovation race, copying each other’s systems, testing new designs, and refining tactics. This arms race ensures that drone warfare now dominates almost every sector of the front.

Key trends have emerged. Russian units are now striking up to 70 km behind the front, crippling supply routes, while Ukraine employs mothership carriers that extend drone ranges deep into Russian lines. Fiber-optic drones have been especially impactful. Unlike traditional UAVs, they cannot be jammed due to their direct cable link, and with new Chinese-made cabling reaching up to 50 km, they allow deep logistical strikes with little countermeasure. The cables unravel from the drone itself, preventing tangling in trees or obstacles, leaving vast fields littered with spent wiring like spider webs.

Both sides now prioritise intelligence gathering to locate and destroy drone “nests” — command posts and launch stations. Robert Brovdi, or “Madyar,” now heads Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, with Russian sources reporting Ukrainian strikes increasingly target Russian UAV operators. His “drone wall” strategy aims to kill up to 35,000 Russian troops monthly, undermining Russia’s manpower rather than hardware. Recently, Russian UAV and reconnaissance units spent weeks tracking a Ukrainian launch site before destroying it.

On production, Ukraine has pledged billions and taken a decentralised approach, funding small firms like Fire Point and SkyFall, the latter producing 4,000 drones daily (one every 27 seconds). By 2024, both sides were making over 1.5 million FPVs annually; Putin ordered an expansion in 2025. Ukraine may reach 4–5 million drones this year if funding allows. Russia’s Defence Minister Belousov also claimed 4,000 drones per day in mid-2024, likely volunteer-driven, though the figure remains questionable. Russian milbloggers have also complained that centralised FPV production has led to Soviet-style corruption. Both sides continue to innovate and prioritise drone warfare, but Ukraine’s decentralised approach currently provides the edge.

CRACKS APPEARING
This is a war of attrition, and in this sense Ukraine continues to lose ground. A major trend is Russia’s ability to start more “fires” across the front than in previous years. Ukraine faces a severe manpower shortage. Its male population has declined with millions leaving as refugees at the outset of the war. More than 200,000 AWOL cases have been reported and 50,000 desertions. Many units are under strength, with even a modest 20,000 monthly recruitment drive failing to meet both quality and quantity demands. This has led Russia to pursue a tactic of spreading the front thin, starting fires everywhere and forcing Ukraine to react. Each new fire weakens Ukraine’s overall position.

This “death by a thousand paper cuts” stretches already exhausted elite forces and creates opportunities for DRG units to probe gaps in defences, such as around Dobropillya. And while Ukraine has done well at containing these fires, each containment drains manpower for the next, creating a downward spiral. The Dobropillya salient is a warning of what is to come: manpower problems that will only deepen as the war drags on. The manpower shortage was so acute in Pokrovsk that some sectors were held almost entirely by drone units, with little to no infantry support. It is also why Madyar continues to press for his “drone wall” strategy as a substitute for infantry where Ukraine is weakest.

TACTICAL OVER STRATEGIC
With surveillance, bomber, and FPV drones saturating the skies, massing armour or launching sweeping offensives is nearly impossible. Both sides can achieve local gains, but neither can deliver a decisive breakthrough.
Russia has made significant localised gains across major sectors but has consistently failed to land a finishing blow. Ukrainian troops, while exhausted, continue to fight with resilience, slowing the tempo of Russia’s advances.

We have also seen a significant shift toward smaller-unit tactics. DRG teams of 2–6 men infiltrate and harass behind enemy lines, often paired with motorcycle attack units. Modern-day dragoons that resemble part-time Mad Max extras. These small-unit tactics are both born of the war’s conditions and drivers of its continuation. They reinforce the stalemate by trading large manoeuvres for constant, small-scale harassment.

Ukrainian forces, for their part, have not launched any major counter-attack during this summer offensive. The largest counter-push occurred at Dobropillya, where gains came at the expense of redeployments from other sectors. Even then, the salient persists and is expanding eastward. Ukraine did reclaim more land this summer than at any point since 2024, but this is less evidence of breakthroughs than of the expanding no man’s land. Small reconnaissance teams now dominate, making traditional control over territory harder for either side to establish. The battlefield is being defined by fragmentation, not consolidation.

SUMMARY
In Part One, we argued that calling Russia’s summer offensive a simple ‘failure’ misses the point. The outcome is more abstract than victory or defeat, marked instead by partial gains, stalled objectives, and relentless attrition. The trends in Part Two show why: Russia, despite high losses, is sustaining pressure through manpower and localised advances, while Ukraine is increasingly forced to react with fewer troops and more innovation. Russia cannot land a decisive blow, yet Ukraine cannot generate the forces to turn the tide. In this sense, the offensive cannot be called a triumph, but neither is it the failure some claim. It has delivered Moscow a slow, grinding measure of success, one that Ukraine has struggled to offset. However, Russia still has no real answer to Ukraine’s deep strikes on logistics and energy, a significant pressure point that could yet give Kyiv the chance for a comeback….We will tackle this soon.

Sources:
Sources available upon request, included separately to not disrupt the style of the page.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Australian politics never ceases to amaze me.

TODAY IN HISTORY

(August 28, 1963): Civil rights march on Washington

On this day in 1963, some 200,000 people marched on Washington, D.C., an event that became a high point of the civil rights movement, especially remembered for the famous “I Have a Dream” speech of Martin Luther King, Jr.