Has The Battle For The Hormuz Strait Begun?

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Tensions across the Middle East continue to intensify today, with Iran launching fresh missile and drone attacks across the Gulf and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz again coming under fire.

Meanwhile, the war spills deeper into Beirut with a strike on a luxury hotel, Switzerland investigates a deadly bus fire, and France prepares a major humanitarian aid shipment for Lebanon as the crisis deepens.

Today we provide a summary and analysis of the latest escalation - as the Hormuz Strait begins to be the next major battlefield.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Iran fires missiles, drones at Gulf nations as ship hit in Strait of Hormuz
Iran launched a new wave of missiles and drones targeting Gulf nations, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as the regional conflict with the United States and Israel continues to escalate. Several projectiles were intercepted by air-defence systems, but some strikes targeted energy infrastructure and U.S.-linked sites across the region. Meanwhile, a commercial vessel was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears for global shipping through the strategic waterway that handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.
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2. Six people killed in ‘deliberate’ bus fire in Switzerland
At least six people were killed and several others injured after a bus caught fire in the town of Kerzers in western Switzerland. Police said early investigations suggest the blaze may have been a deliberate act by someone on board the vehicle, though the exact cause remains under investigation. Authorities added that there is currently no indication the incident was linked to terrorism as emergency crews and investigators continue examining the scene.
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3. War expands to central Beirut as Israeli strike kills Iranians in luxury hotel
An Israeli airstrike hit a luxury hotel building in central Beirut, killing at least four people believed to be Iranian operatives and injuring around ten others, according to Lebanese officials. Israel said the strike targeted senior members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force who were operating in the Lebanese capital and coordinating attacks against Israel. The attack marked one of the first Israeli strikes in central Beirut during the current escalation, signalling a widening of the conflict beyond Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of the city.
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4. Three crew missing after Thai ship hit in Strait of Hormuz
Three crew members are missing after a Thai-flagged cargo ship was struck by unidentified projectiles while sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes. Twenty other crew members were rescued by the Omani navy after abandoning the vessel in lifeboats, while a fire broke out in the ship’s engine area following the impact.
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5. France to provide 60 tons of humanitarian aid for Lebanon
France will send 60 tonnes of humanitarian aid to Lebanon as the country faces a worsening crisis amid ongoing fighting and mass displacement. The aid package, announced by French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, includes sanitation and hygiene kits, mattresses, lamps, and a mobile medical unit to support civilians affected by the conflict. Paris said the shipment significantly increases its planned assistance this week as international concern grows over the humanitarian situation in Lebanon.
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IRAN-USA CONFLICT DAY 12 - The Battle For Hormuz

We are now moving into Day 12 of the conflict, and there are increasing indications that the war may be shifting toward a far more dangerous maritime dimension. Over the past 24 hours, reports have circulated suggesting that Iran may have begun limited mining operations in the Strait of Hormuz. If accurate, this would signal a deliberate attempt by Tehran to raise the economic costs of the war by targeting global energy routes rather than focusing purely on the missile exchange.

Iranian Mines
At the same time, Iranian analysts are beginning to openly discuss a possible second pressure point in the conflict: the Bab el-Mandab Strait. The logic here is clear. If the Houthis increase their activity in the Red Sea while Iran simultaneously threatens Hormuz, global trade would face disruption at two of its most critical chokepoints at the same time. Even limited interference across both routes could have a far greater impact on shipping and oil markets than pressure on one corridor alone. 

According to the Washington Post at least ten mines have already been laid in the narrowest point of the Hormuz strait. Ten does not seem like much, but in the narrowest point this would give a roughly 40% chance of being hit if you are a tanker. We can also confirm that the US navy has denied repeated requests to escort tankers citing safety concerns. The problem with stopping any mining is that Iran’s mining fleet is essentially hundreds of small boats that look like any other fishing boat you will find in the Persian Gulf.  In September 2025, the U.S. Navy decommissioned its last Avenger-class minesweepers in Bahrain, ending nearly four decades of dedicated mine-clearing ships in the Persian Gulf. Their role is being replaced by Independence-class Littoral Combat Ships equipped with mine-countermeasure systems that rely on drones and remote sensors. Several of these replacement ships are already deployed with the U.S. 5th Fleet, with additional vessels planned.

Political messaging from Tehran has increasingly reflected this thinking. Senior Iranian figures have warned that the Strait of Hormuz will either remain open for trade or become a zone of confrontation if the war continues. In other words, Iran appears to be signalling that the maritime front could expand if it believes the current costs imposed on its adversaries are insufficient. The fact we’re only now seeing some effort to close the strait could suggest a reintegrated or regrouping of command structure after initial attacks. We saw a similar event happen in the 12-day war where gradually the Iranians found their footing.

U.S and Israeli Air Campaign Split?
Meanwhile, the U.S. air and naval campaign against Iranian military assets continues to intensify. Footage released by CENTCOM shows strikes against several IRGC Navy vessels, including at least one Shahid Soleimani-class ship and multiple missile and torpedo boats. There are also reports that Iran’s Fateh submarine, the country’s only domestically built semi-heavy submarine, may have been damaged in recent attacks. These strikes suggest a systematic effort to degrade Iran’s ability to contest the Gulf at sea.

Military and political officials in recent press confrences have alluded that it was Israel targeting economic infrastructure in Iran - saying each state has their own objectives. Are we seeing early rifts in the campaign between the allies? Israeli sources suggest that Israel is frustrated with Trumps lack of long-term commitment to any plan.

Economic Effects Are Hurting And Market Manipulation?
The economic effects are already beginning to show. Reports indicate that several Gulf oil producers — including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain — have begun reducing output due to the security situation around Hormuz. Analysts estimate that between 6 and 7 million barrels per day of production could be temporarily affected if the disruption continues.

Despite mounting pressure, Iranian officials continue to signal that a ceasefire is not currently under consideration. Several senior figures have stated that halting the war now would simply allow the conflict to restart later under worse conditions. Instead, Tehran appears to be pursuing a strategy of endurance and cost imposition, hoping that prolonged disruption to trade, infrastructure, and regional stability will eventually force a new strategic balance.

We also saw some possibly dodgy market manipulation, given we live in an age where tweets can literally move markets in seconds. Oil prices briefly plunged after U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted that the U.S. Navy had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, easing fears of a prolonged disruption to global energy supplies. The message was deleted minutes later, leaving investors confused amid conflicting signals from the Trump administration.

Sources available upon request!

TWEET OF THE DAY

Is Rubio a jack of all trades, master of none…? 😂

TODAY IN HISTORY

(March 11, 2004): Madrid suffered a series of terrorist attacks when 10 bombs, detonated by Islamist militants, exploded on four trains at three different rail stations, killing 191 people and injuring some 1,800 others.