THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Geopolitics didn’t take a breather today as Washington reopened the tech tap to China, Southeast Asia slipped back into border clashes, and Lithuania scrambled to contain a wave of mysterious Belarusian balloons.

In Europe, Czech politics flipped back to Andrej Babiš while the Vatican doubled down on diplomacy, with Pope Leo urging Kyiv to keep dialogue alive.

In today’s Deep Dive, we break down the RSF’s capture of Heglig — and the broader struggle to lock down territorial strongholds like El Fasher and El Obeid.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Trump gives Nvidia the green-light to sell advanced AI chips to China
The U.S. government has approved Nvidia’s export of its H200 AI chips to China, allowing shipments to approved customers under a per-chip fee arrangement. The deal excludes Nvidia’s most advanced Blackwell-series chips and the Biden-era restriction remains in place for the highest-end processors. While supporters argue the move safeguards U.S. jobs and technological leadership, critics, warn the sale could erode America’s AI edge and enhance China’s AI and defence capabilities.
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2. Cambodia says it has retaliated in renewed clashes with Thailand
Cambodia announced it has “retaliated” against Thailand after renewed border clashes, with former leader Hun Sen saying Cambodian forces responded following repeated attacks by Thai troops. The escalation follows a surge in violence that began when Thailand launched air-strikes across the border, leading to civilian casualties and mass evacuations of border-region residents. As both sides trade blame, the fragile peace agreement signed just weeks ago has effectively collapsed; forcing international calls for calm while tens of thousands of civilians flee the contested zones.
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3. Lithuania declares state of emergency over balloon incursions from Belarus
Lithuania has declared a nationwide state of emergency after repeated incursions of balloons from Belarus, which the government says are carrying contraband and posing a threat to national security and civil aviation. Authorities say the balloon flights have forced closures at airports including Vilnius Airport and Kaunas Airport, disrupted flights for tens of thousands of passengers, and triggered a “hybrid-attack” claim against Belarus. Under the emergency decree, Lithuania’s military will now support police and border guards with expanded powers to inspect vehicles and individuals, detain suspects, and help intercept future balloon incursions.
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4. Billionaire Trump fan Andrej Babis returns to power as Czech Prime Minister
Billionaire politician Andrej Babiš has been sworn in as Prime Minister of the Czech Republic today, returning to power after his ANO party’s victory in October’s parliamentary elections. The new government is a coalition with two strongly Eurosceptic parties a shift that observers say could strain Prague’s ties to both the European Union and its support for Ukraine. Babiš has pledged to place his corporate conglomerate, Agrofert, into a blind trust to resolve long-standing conflict-of-interest concerns.
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5. Pope urges ‘continuation of dialogue’ after meeting with Ukraine’s Zelenskiy
Pope Leo XIV met with Volodymyr Zelenskiy at Castel Gandolfo and called for a “continuation of dialogue” as the pathway to a “just and lasting peace” in Ukraine. During the meeting, the Pope and Zelenskiy discussed the fate of prisoners of war and the urgent need to reunite Ukrainian children deported during the war with their families, highlighting the Vatican’s interest in humanitarian and reconciliation efforts. The Vatican’s statement stressed that renewed diplomatic efforts are vital, signalling that the Holy See remains ready to support mediated peace efforts even as negotiations with Russia flank ongoing conflict.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

Heglig Oilfield Falls To The RSF - What This Means

Context
The RSF’s capture of the Heglig oilfield marks one of the most consequential moments of the Sudanese civil war — militarily, economically and politically. Early Monday, the RSF declared it had seized Sudan’s largest oil-producing site, and by afternoon the SAF effectively confirmed the loss, saying troops had withdrawn to “protect the oil facilities and prevent damage.” Analysts note that, in reality, there was no battle at all: the SAF pulled out in full, leaving the RSF to walk in uncontested. With this withdrawal, the army has now been entirely pushed out of West Kordofan.

Heglig matters for several reasons. It is Sudan’s largest oilfield and the core processing hub for South Sudan’s exports, a lifeline that provides nearly all of Juba’s government revenue. While some analysts argue that most South Sudanese production now comes from the Upper Nile via the Paloch hub and a separate pipeline, Heglig remains strategically critical for refining, processing and transit. Its capture gives the RSF leverage not only over Sudan’s remaining oil economy but over South Sudan’s revenue stream,  a pressure point few actors in the region can ignore.

The UAE Involvement
There is also an external dimension. Control of Heglig may create an opportunity for Abu Dhabi, already widely believed to be backing Hemedti, to quietly facilitate the marketing of refined fuel abroad. If the RSF can monetise even a portion of these flows, it would represent a major financial boost for a force now trying to consolidate authority across central and southern Sudan.

The Big Clash
Geographically, the move fits the RSF’s broader expansion. After securing Darfur last month, the force has pushed east and south into Kordofan, fighting around Babnusa and inching toward key agricultural zones and gold reserves. The eastward corridor also opens theoretical pathways back toward Khartoum, from which the RSF was expelled earlier this year.

This year’s trajectory in Sudan shows both the RSF and SAF shifting away from rapid offensives toward consolidating and securing their own territorial bases. For the RSF, the focus has been clear: complete control of Darfur through the battle for El Fasher, followed by the push into West Kordofan, including the capture of Heglig. By locking down its western and southern flanks, the RSF is trying to free up forces for a more unified, concentrated front toward the centre and east of the country. The SAF, meanwhile, is prioritising the central belt of Sudan — attempting to stabilise Khartoum, secure remaining strongholds, and eliminate isolated pockets of resistance that drain manpower and stretch logistics. Both sides understand that whoever enters the next phase of the war with a consolidated rear and a coherent territorial bloc will be far better positioned for future offensives. I argue that the next major phase of the war will be centred around El Obaid. Whoever controls this city, will control the gates into each other's heartlands. In effect, Sudan’s civil war is transitioning from chaotic multi-front battles into a struggle to build two competing proto-states.

Sources:
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Interesting take.

TODAY IN HISTORY

(December 9, 1990): Lech Wałęsa elected president of Poland

On this day in 1990, Lech Wałęsa, who had led Solidarity, Poland's first independent trade union, and had received the Nobel Prize for Peace in 1983, won Poland's first direct presidential election by a landslide.