THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

It’s a busy Sunday, with Hong Kong heading to the polls under the shadow of a tragic blaze, Beijing and Moscow running another round of missile-defence drills, and India reeling from a fatal nightclub fire in one of its most visited tourist hubs.

Tensions also flared in the skies near Okinawa after Japan accused Chinese jets of locking fire-control radar on its aircraft, while Zelenskyy continued his diplomatic push with a “substantive” call to Washington’s special envoy.

In today’s deep dive, it’s now confirmed in writing: the administration has effectively unveiled a new Monroe Doctrine, reshaping U.S.–Latin America policy across the region.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Hong Kong holds legislative election as city mourns deadly blaze
Despite mourning a devastating blaze that killed at least 159 people, Hong Kong went ahead with its legislative election on Sunday under a “patriots-only” system, as the city grapples with grief and anger over the disaster. Campaign activity was muted and original forums were suspended, many residents expressed disillusionment and said they would skip voting, making a turnout collapse widely expected. The election comes amid rising scrutiny of government oversight and fire-safety standards after substandard renovation materials were blamed for fuelling the fire.
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2. China, Russia holds 3rd joint anti-missile drill
The People's Liberation Army and Russian Armed Forces conducted their third joint anti-missile exercise on Russian territory, according to China’s Defence Ministry. Officials said the drills were not aimed at any third party or tied to the current international situation, insisting the exercise was a routine coordination effort to improve joint air- and missile-defence readiness. The move highlights growing military cooperation between Beijing and Moscow amid rising global tensions.
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3. At least 23 killed in nightclub fire in tourist hotspot in India
A fire ripped through a popular nightclub in Arpora, in India’s Goa state, shortly after midnight, killing at least 23 people, according to state officials. Authorities say the blaze was triggered by a suspected gas-cylinder explosion, and most of the victims were kitchen staff; several tourists are also believed to be among the dead. The Goa government has ordered a full magisterial inquiry, and top officials have vowed strict action against those found responsible, as public shock mounts over potential safety violations at the club.
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4. Chinese jets directed fire-control radar at Japanese aircraft, Japan says
Japanese Ministry of Defense says that jets from China twice directed fire-control radar at Japanese F-15 aircraft over international waters southeast of Okinawa, in what Tokyo has called a “dangerous” escalation. The Chinese jets reportedly launched from the carrier Liaoning and locked radar first for approximately three minutes in the afternoon, then for about 30 minutes in the evening, though no Japanese airspace was breached and there were no injuries or damage. Tokyo has lodged a formal protest with Beijing, describing the radar lock-ons as a highly provocative act.
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5. Zelenskyy says he had ‘substantive’ phone call with US special envoy Witkoff
Zelenskyy said on Saturday he had a long and “substantive” phone call with Steve Witkoff, the U.S. special envoy, along with Jared Kushner. The leaders agreed on next steps and formats for continued talks with the United States, as Kyiv seeks to advance a U.S.-backed peace framework for ending the war with Russia. The call follows a series of meetings in Miami between U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators described as “constructive,” though hard issues remain unresolved.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

Where Ukraine Counterattacks

Context
At the Reagan National Defense Forum, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth took the stage to reaffirm the Trump administration’s new strategic pivot: restoring US military dominance in the Western Hemisphere and reviving a modernised Monroe Doctrine. Speaking to lawmakers, generals and industry leaders, Hegseth dismissed decades of US foreign-policy orthodoxy  (democracy-building, regime-change wars and climate-driven defense planning) and said the Pentagon would instead centre “practical, concrete interests.”

The newly released National Security Strategy outlines four pillars: defending the homeland and the hemisphere, deterring China, increasing allied burden-sharing, and rapidly expanding the US defence industrial base. The Monroe Doctrine return is the most striking shift. Hegseth declared it “stronger than ever,” signalling a long-term push to block Chinese, Russian or Iranian footprints in Latin America. What this means for US force posture remains unclear, though senior officers suggested more combat power may move into the region.

Trump And The Americas
But the NSS also unsettled Europe. The document takes unusually sharp aim at European politics, signals resistance to further NATO expansion, and emphasises civilisational decline over transatlantic unity. Lawmakers at the forum voiced concerns, with Republicans and Democrats warning the strategy risks damaging alliances and weakening deterrence, particularly after reports of potential US troop reductions in Romania.

Trump’s relationship with Latin America can fairly be described as hostile and complex,  there are several reasons for this — much of which we covered in previous newsletters when outlining the proto-Monroe revival taking shape inside the administration. Domestically, Trump built much of his political identity on stopping illegal immigration at the US–Mexico border. Mexican and wider Latin American cartels became central to that narrative, portrayed as the engines of fentanyl trafficking and the broader drug crisis that has killed hundreds of thousands of Americans. The renewed pressure on Venezuela fits directly into that anti-cartel, anti-trafficking worldview.

Diplomatically, Trump’s early dealings with the region have been equally strained. He picked tariff fights with both Mexico and Canada, was accused of meddling in Brazil through his support for ex-president Bolsonaro, pushed Panama out of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and is now escalating pressure on Caracas. Inside the administration, many do not view the Americas as partners, but as a zone firmly inside the U.S. sphere of influence.

This mindset flows from a doctrine many assumed had faded. As we discussed in prior editions, the Monroe Doctrine (outlined in 1823) warned European powers against expanding into the Western Hemisphere. It effectively placed Latin America inside the U.S. orbit. For over a century, it justified repeated interventions and shaped American foreign policy throughout the 19th and 20th centuries. What we are seeing now is not new, it is an evolution, or revival, of a doctrine that never truly disappeared.

The China Section
The report argues that decades of U.S. policy toward China were based on the false belief that economic integration would liberalise Beijing. Instead, China grew stronger while American elites enabled or ignored the imbalance. It notes China is now a near-peer competitor and has adapted to Trump’s tariffs by tightening its hold on global supply chains. The document lists core grievances: unfair subsidies, IP theft, espionage, supply-chain risks and fentanyl precursor exports. As a result, the administration says tariffs will remain and U.S.–China ties will be rebalanced around reciprocity and economic independence.

Sources:
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Jeez Elon has really been having a crack at the EU on X in recent days…

TODAY IN HISTORY

(December 7, 1941): Pearl Harbor attack

On this day in 1941, Japanese bombers launched a surprise aerial attack on the U.S. naval base at Pearl Harbor on the island of Oahu, Hawaii, precipitating the entry of the United States into World War II.