THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

It’s a varied news day, with developments spanning the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and global trade.

In Israel, settlement expansion plans are drawing sharp international criticism, while protests in Serbia are testing the government’s grip on power. We’re also watching Trump’s high-profile Alaska meeting with Putin, a citizenship push from foreign fighters in Syria, and looming U.S. tariffs that could shake the semiconductor industry.

In today’s deep dive, we examine Jolani’s HTS as an organisation in the years before its rise to power in Syria.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Israeli Minister strikes at Palestinian State with move to expand key settlement
The U.N. human rights office raised serious concerns on Friday over Israel’s plan to build thousands of new homes between a West Bank settlement and East Jerusalem, calling the move illegal under international law and warning it could expose nearby Palestinians to forced evictions, actions that the agency described as amounting to a war crime. The U.N. emphasized that transferring a civilian population into occupied territory breaches the Fourth Geneva Convention and risks fragmenting Palestinian communities into isolated enclaves. This development not only underscores deepening international legal and diplomatic pushback but also highlights how settlement expansion continues to undermine the viability of a two-state solution.
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2. Serbian protesters are back on the streets as clashes with government loyalists escalate
Anti-government protests in Serbia recently turned violent as demonstrators, frustrated by long-standing accusations of corruption and mismanagement, smashed up ruling-party offices in Novi Sad and clashed with police and pro-government groups in Belgrade. The unrest, which stems from outrage over a deadly railway station collapse last November, has injured dozens and seen hundreds arrested as tensions spread to multiple towns across the country.
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3. Trump heads to ‘high stakes’ Alaska summit with Putin on Ukraine
Trump and Vladimir Putin met Friday for a summit at the Cold-War era Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska, an unfolding high-stakes face-to-face aimed at kicking off peace talks and exploring a ceasefire for Ukraine. Trump pitched the meeting as a step toward ending the war, even hinting at possible territorial discussions and floating the idea of bringing President Zelenskyy into the next round, though Europe and Kyiv have warned against concessions without Ukraine’s full involvement. The summit also raised broader strategic questions, with European and Ukrainian leaders watching closely amid concerns that Trump might secure a headline without safeguarding Ukraine’s interests.
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4. Foreign Islamists petition Syrian state for citizenship
Foreign fighters, aid workers, and journalists who joined Syria’s civil war from abroad have formally petitioned the new Islamist-led government for citizenship, arguing that their contributions in helping oust Bashar al-Assad merit legal recognition and stability. The petition highlights the petitioners' lack of documentation and the risks of persecution or statelessness if they return home. While Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa has hinted at the possibility of granting citizenship, no formal action has been taken, as Syrians remain divided on whether foreign fighters’ motivations align with the country’s future national interest.
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5. Trump says semiconductor tariffs coming soon and could read 300%
Trump announced today that he plans to roll out tariffs on semiconductor imports in the coming weeks, starting with modest rates, then ramping up dramatically, and in some cases potentially hitting as high as 300%. The goal, he said, is to push companies to build or expand manufacturing in the U.S. those that don’t comply could face steep import taxes as their products enter the U.S.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

HAYAT TAHRIR AL-SHAM

OVERVIEW
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) HTS's predecessor is Jabat al-Nusra (JaN); JaN was an al-Qaeda affiliate that took directions from the central al-Qaeda terrorist organisation. In 2016 JaN rebranded to Jabat Fatah al-Sham. and stated it was no longer aligned with al-Qaeda. In 2017, JFS merged with five other groups to form Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), with Abu-Muhammad al-Jolani as its leader. This led to a brutal conflict with Al-Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates, which diminished Al-Qaeda’s influence in Syria. Before the formation of HTS, the organisation was primarily a starfish organisational structure aiming to commit terrorist attacks against civilians and the Syrian regime. However, Jolani has led a vision for HTS to be ‘Syrianised’; HTS does not advocate for any global jihad. The Syrianisation has led to the restructuring into a spider organisation. HTS aimed to be seen as a legitimate governmental organisation that operates through the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG). HTS has created “sophisticated” political, religious, military, and financial institutions to prove its legitimacy and solidify its influence. HTS was authoritarian but not ideological at least publicly and continuously aimed at perceiving itself as moderate.

CENTRAL OBJECTIVES (PRE-TAKEOVER)
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Central objectives Its origin was founded in traditional terrorist attacks, claiming responsibility for the first suicide attacks (pre HTS rebranding). An early central objective was targeting the Alawite minority group. A notable terrorist attack was HTS’ incursion into the Latakia province (regime territory), where they murdered 190 Alawite villagers. Since its rebranding, HTS has primarily stopped traditional terrorist attacks and focussed on military campaigns against the regime and committed its counter-terrorism operations against rival groups.
During the Idlib-containment era, HTS had many conflicts with rival factions which it eventually absorbed or eliminated. What separated HTS from other groups in Idlib was the focus on state building, envisioned by Jolani. HTS was able to solidify it’s legitimacy amongst the community, but more importantly it allowed for a smooth transition when the Assad Government apparatus fell apart. 

MILITARY MAKE UP (PRE-TAKEOVER) 
HTS comprised of combined arms units that use drones, small-arms infantry, vehicles, and (former) suicide bombings against the Assad regime. The groups strength was numbered in the tens of thousands, notably difficult to place an estimate as many sub-groups are involved. VBIEDs were a central aspect of HTS’ offensive strategy. They succeeded due to their psychological terror and capability to damage regime defenses significantly but had since stopped due to their “image problem”. This was paired with valuable shock troops, who would lead assaults - most notable in the early days of the Battle of Aleppo. HTS also had a special forces division equipped with night vision. HTS does not officially advocate for terror attacks outside Syria. The group has significant funding history both directly and indirectly from various Middle East nations and Western States. 

COUNTER-TERRORISM
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) HTS has experienced a wide array of counter-terrorism responses from various nations. The Syrian government has successfully led numerous counter-terrorism responses against HTS, primarily through military offensives and airstrikes. Russia has extensively supported the Syrian government with military advisors, intelligence gathering, and precision airstrikes against HTS. HTS and other rebel territory have been reduced to the northern Syrian province of Idlib. The US government has also contributed to precision airstrikes against senior HTS members in the early years of the Syrian Civil War. Furthermore, the US and its allies have aimed at disrupting the financing of HTS through various means, such as sanctions. For example, Through the cooperation of the US and Turkey, two vital financial facilitators of HTS have been sanctioned, and the U.S. government possessed their property in 2023. This is significant as it comes after the identity shift of HTS. Well-organised military operations by Assad, heavily supported by the Russian air force and special forces, have been critical in disabling HTS’ local influence.


Sources:
References available upon request. A full citation list has been omitted to preserve the visual integrity of the page.

TWEET OF THE DAY

It’s a big ‘no’ from me.

TODAY IN HISTORY

(August 15, 1947): Indian Independence

After decades of struggle, the Indian independence movement led by Mahatma Gandhi succeeded on this day in 1947, marking the birth of a free nation and bringing an end to nearly two centuries of British colonial rule.