IDF Chief Warns of Collapse From Within (Special Edition)

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Plenty moving across the geopolitical chessboard today: Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise stop in Saudi Arabia as Ukraine pitches its drone expertise abroad, while Donald Trump has pushed back his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 10 days.

Elsewhere, the Philippines and France are deepening defence ties, Alexander Lukashenko and Kim Jong Un have signed a new “friendship” treaty in Pyongyang, and China is pushing back at the Czech Republic over a Senate resolution tied to the Dalai Lama.

Today we focus on growing concerns about the IDF being stretched, how demographics play a role, and internal discontent between politicians and the military/intelligence apparatus.

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THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Zelensky makes surprise visit to Saudi Arabia after offering drone expertise
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made an unannounced visit to Saudi Arabia for a series of “important meetings,” as Kyiv looks to strengthen ties with countries in the Middle East. The trip comes after Ukraine offered its battlefield-tested expertise in countering Iranian-designed drones, which several Gulf states are now facing amid regional tensions. In return, Kyiv is seeking deeper security cooperation, including potential financial, technological, and air-defence support for Ukraine’s war effort against Russia.
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2. Trump extends deadline for Iran to open Strait of Hormuz by 10 days
Trump has extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 10 days, delaying threatened strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure while negotiations continue. The new deadline is set for April 6, with Washington saying the pause came as talks were showing progress and at Iran’s request through intermediaries. The move comes amid the ongoing conflict and disruptions to shipping through the strategically vital waterway.
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3. Philippines, France sign visiting forces pact to boost defence ties
The Philippines and France have signed a Visiting Forces Agreement in Paris that will allow their troops to conduct joint training and activities in each other’s territory. The pact, signed by Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. and French Armed Forces Minister Catherine Vautrin, is aimed at strengthening military cooperation and providing a legal framework for joint operations. It also comes as Manila continues expanding defence partnerships amid rising tensions in the South China Sea.
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4. North Korea and Belarus sign ‘friendship’ treaty during Lukashenko visit
North Korea and Belarus signed a “friendship and cooperation” treaty during Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s visit to Pyongyang, following talks with leader Kim Jong Un. The agreement is aimed at expanding bilateral ties across areas such as diplomacy, agriculture, education, and public health, marking a new stage in relations between the two countries. The summit highlights closer coordination between two nations that are both under Western sanctions and have aligned with Russia amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.
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5. China criticises Czech Republic over Senate resolution on Dalai Lama
China has criticised the Czech Republic after the country’s Senate passed a resolution supporting the Tibetan people’s right to freely choose the next Dalai Lama. Beijing said the move “grossly interfered” in China’s internal affairs and reiterated its position that Tibet is an inseparable part of China. The dispute adds to recent tensions between the two countries following meetings between Czech officials and the Tibetan spiritual leader and growing scrutiny of Beijing’s policies in Tibet.
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GLOBAL CONFLICT TRACKER (SPECIAL EDITION)

IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir’s Warning:
In a closed security cabinet meeting, IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir reportedly issued a blunt warning: the Israeli military risks “collapsing in on itself” under the weight of a growing manpower crisis . According to reports, Zamir raised “10 red flags,” calling for urgent legislative action: expanded conscription, extended mandatory service, and reforms to the reserve system.

The issue is structural. Israel is now effectively operating across multiple fronts (Iran, Lebanon, and the West Bank) while relying on a strained reserve force and an increasingly narrow recruitment base. Central Command head Avi Bluth reinforced this, pointing to government policy in the West Bank as a key pressure point. The expansion of settlements has created new security burdens, forcing troop reallocations and stretching already thin units . In practice, this has meant diverting combat units away from external fronts to manage internal instability, including rising settler violence. Politically, the fallout is immediate. Opposition figures like Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett are framing this as a failure of strategy—arguing the government has committed Israel to a multi-front war without the manpower or planning to sustain it. A central fault line remains the continued exemption of ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) men from military service, with estimates suggesting a shortfall of around 20,000 troops.
Source

Haredim Demographics
The Haredim have become one of the most important forces shaping Israel’s future, primarily because they are the country’s fastest-growing demographic. Expanding at roughly 3.5–4% per year (around two to three times faster than the general population) they already make up about 14% of Israel today, with projections placing them at 16% by 2030 and potentially as high as 30–40% in the long term. This growth is driven by a combination of extremely high fertility rates, averaging 6–7 children per woman, and a very young population, with over half under the age of 16–19 in some estimates. Just as important is their strong internal cohesion, with low assimilation rates and high community retention reinforcing long-term demographic momentum.

Politically, this makes them a decisive bloc. The Haredim are a major voter base that consistently supports right-wing coalitions, often acting as kingmakers in Israeli politics. However, their alignment is not strictly ideological. Rather than being driven by traditional right-wing nationalism, their voting behaviour is largely transactional—focused on protecting religious interests, securing funding, and maintaining exemptions such as military service. This creates a unique dynamic where they are central to the right’s electoral strength, while not necessarily being fully aligned with its broader ideological agenda.

The Military Strain
If you’ve been a long-time reader, you’ll know we’ve been discussing the operational strain on the Israeli military for quite some time now. When Israel launched its last major push into Gaza—David’s Chariot—right before the ceasefire, there were already significant internal warnings from Eyal Zamir. The core concern was that prolonged urban combat would continue to degrade operational capabilities, regardless of whether tactical objectives were being achieved. Largely driven by war fatigue, the Israeli army has effectively been in continuous conflict since October 2023, and we’re now approaching three years of sustained warfare.

Zamir’s concern is relatively straightforward: the troops are exhausted, and they are being stretched across multiple fronts. They’ve spent years engaged in the most demanding form of combat (urban warfare) while also operating in Syria and Lebanon, and are now pushing into another large-scale operation with the likely objective of occupying southern Lebanon unless a resolution is reached. At the same time, resources are being stretched further by commitments in the West Bank. For example, the IDF has already been forced to divert an infantry battalion originally intended for deployment to Lebanon into the West Bank, as rising settler violence against Palestinians demands increased internal security resources.

War Weariness Does Not Mean Less War Support
This isn’t to say that support for the war isn’t there—quite the contrary. According to recent polling, around 90% of Israelis support the current conflict in Iran. From the Israeli perspective, it is a hardship worth enduring as long as there is a victory over the horizon. This has been shaped heavily by the psychological aftermath of the October 7 attacks, which reinforced a widespread belief among Jewish Israelis that aggressive security measures are necessary for long-term survival. Many view the current conflict through a trade-off lens—short-term suffering, including civilian disruption, casualties, and constant alerts, in exchange for future security.

However, this support does not fully translate into political backing for Benjamin Netanyahu. While polls suggest approval of his handling of the Iran war, many voters remain reluctant to return him to power, reflecting lingering distrust from earlier phases of the Gaza conflict. At the strategic level, Israeli military and intelligence officials are increasingly cautious. Despite tactical successes, there is concern over the absence of a clear long-term strategy, particularly regarding how these gains translate into lasting security. A key worry is the potential damage to Israel’s relationship with the United States (a cornerstone of its security architecture), raising the risk that even battlefield successes could evolve into long-term strategic setbacks. If you’re wondering why this is the case, it’s because Israel may be one of the only countries where polling shows strong support for this war—for instance, over 60% of Americans do not support it.
Polling Source

Disconnect between Netanyahu and Intelligence / Military Apparatus
So when we see repeated comments from the IDF Chief about war weariness, it’s coming from a logical assessment by someone who understands the realities and limits of sustained conflict—unlike politicians (who would’ve thought). Put yourself in the shoes of the IDF: there is an ongoing occupation force in large parts of Gaza, a conflict that is still not fully resolved. There is also an active presence in Syria—supporting the Druze while operating on contested ground, which has already led to casualties. Now, on top of that, we’re seeing a major operation into southern Lebanon against an adversary that has spent decades preparing for exactly this scenario. Again, this isn’t a “doomer” viewpoint—it’s an objective assessment of the operational load being placed on the military.

And there may be a broader disconnect between Benjamin Netanyahu’s political cabinet and the intelligence and military establishment; for example, Mossad reportedly refused to carry out an operation targeting Hamas officials in Qatar, citing the wider strategic and diplomatic risks involved. That was a major eye opener for me when I first read the report, and in hindsight the intelligence apparatus was correct. Qatar has managed to slip out from this war whilst mending relations with Iran. 

Sources available upon request

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(March 27, 47 bce): Cleopatra reinstated as queen of Egypt

On this day in 47 bce, Cleopatra was reinstated to the Egyptian throne after having been ousted by her brother, Ptolemy XIII, three years prior. Rather than residing in exile, Cleopatra assembled her army in an attempt to reclaim the throne. While her forces were initially outnumbered, the tide shifted when Cleopatra gained Julius Caesar as an ally and lover (after being discreetly smuggled into his quarters). She successfully defeated her brother—who reportedly drowned while fleeing—and ruled over Egypt for almost two decades afterward. Her death in 30 bce marked the end of the 300-year Ptolemaic dynasty.