THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From Capitol Hill to Kathmandu, it’s a day of long speeches and political shake-ups: Donald Trump delivered the longest State of the Union on record, while Narendra Modi touched down in Israel to deepen ties with Benjamin Netanyahu.

In East Asia, Washington and Seoul prepare for their annual Freedom Shield drills, as reports suggest Iran is nearing a deal with China for supersonic anti-ship missiles, and Nepal’s rapper-turned-mayor Balendra Shah edges closer to the premiership.

In today’s deep dive, we're looking at Washington’s debate over striking Iran reveals internal divisions, military readiness, media influence, and uncertainty over whether escalation or diplomacy will prevail.

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THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Trump delivers longest-ever State of the Union address, talking up ‘Golden Age of USA’
Trump delivered the 2026 State of the Union address on February 24 in Washington, D.C., speaking for 1 hour and 48 minutes as he highlighted his administration’s policies and record. Trump touted economic gains, border security, and energy progress, asserting the nation is entering a “Golden Age of America” with lower inflation, rising jobs, and increased investment, and called on Congress to enact his legislative priorities ahead of the midterm elections. The address also covered immigration, tariffs and foreign policy, was delivered amid partisan division with some lawmakers walking out, and featured several special guests to underscore key themes.
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2. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi begins two-day visit to Israel
Modi has begun a two-day state visit to Israel, aiming to deepen the India–Israel strategic partnership with talks on defence, technology, trade, innovation and regional security with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other leaders. During the visit, Modi is scheduled to address the Israeli parliament (Knesset) in a first for an Indian prime minister, and also meet President Isaac Herzog, while engagement with the Indian diaspora and visits to symbolic sites like the Holocaust memorial Yad Vashem are planned.
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3. US and South Korean militaries to have joint drills in March
South Korea and the United States will conduct their annual Freedom Shield joint military drills from March 9 to 19, with officials describing the 11-day exercise as principally defensive in nature and aimed at strengthening combined readiness and deterrence against threats from North Korea. The drills, which include both command post and field training components, also support preparations for the conditions-based transfer of wartime operational control from U.S. forces to South Korea before President Lee Jae Myung’s term ends in 2030.
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4. Iran nears deal for Chinese anti-ship supersonic missiles
Iran is nearing a deal with China to purchase advanced CM-302 supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles, according to multiple sources familiar with the negotiations, just as the United States is deploying a significant naval force near Iran’s coast amid heightened regional tensions. The supersonic missiles would significantly enhance Tehran’s maritime strike capabilities and could pose a greater threat to U.S. and allied naval vessels operating in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Negotiations, which began at least two years ago and accelerated after last year’s brief conflict between Iran and Israel, have advanced to near-completion, though no delivery timeline has been agreed.
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5. Nepal’s rapper-mayor in pole position to become Prime Minister
Balendra “Balen” Shah, a 35-year-old former rapper and ex-mayor of Kathmandu, is emerging as the front-runner to become Nepal’s next prime minister after a youth-led uprising toppled the previous government and spurred early elections scheduled for March 5. Shah, now a candidate of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), is widely projected by analysts and local media to lead the race and would assume the premiership if the RSP wins enough seats, drawing strong support from younger voters disillusioned with traditional parties. His rise from hip-hop artist and urban reformer to national political figure marks a significant generational shift in Nepali politics.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

An Internal Rift Within Washington Regarding Iran?

Today’s SOTU Address
Today we ran a poll ahead of Trump’s second State of the Union address in his current term. A sizeable majority of you voted that Trump would announce some sort of strikes on Iran. I’ll admit, a part of me believed we might see some sort of announcement too.

But overall, what we received was a rather cryptic message: diplomacy is the aim, but they will never allow Iran to field nuclear weapons. Equally, I had that “nothing ever happens” mentality. On one hand, Trump would love to make a big show out of the SOTU address — and we did see elements of performance, with jabs at Democrats — but announcing strikes on Iran during the speech? Perhaps a touch overboard.

Always take note of this though: when it comes to Washington politics, partisanship often stops at the shoreline. Rarely did we see Democrats cheer or stand for any Trump statement tonight,  except when it came to comments on Iran.

Familiar Trends
Part of the reason I began having doubts about an immediate operation was the narrative swing in the media over the last 24 hours. But first, some context. For our regular readers, you would be aware by now that the cards seemingly remain in place — militarily and between the lines — except perhaps for one aircraft carrier still dealing with plumbing issues. Different sources had suggested attacks would take place over the weekend or Monday–Tuesday. Militarily, the vast aerial and naval accumulation was largely in position. The first batch of F-22s (previously delayed in Europe for unknown reasons) began flying to the Middle East less than 24 hours ago. When F-22s deploy forward, it usually signals something imminent. They are expensive assets; they are not sent to sit idle. Another sign was U.S. Air Force assets flying out of bases along the Strait of Hormuz towards deeper locations, safer from Iranian retaliation, Jordan and Saudi Arabia among them.

Between the lines, various media personalities and trusted OSINT analysts were suggesting something was imminent. Furthermore, sources — including Witkoff — stated that Trump had become increasingly frustrated with Iran in recent days. Witkoff also repeated the familiar line that Iran is days away from a nuclear bomb, which raised eyebrows given Trump’s previous insistence that nuclear sites were “obliterated”. Israeli media had also stated their source said an attack was imminent.

The Gang of Eight
We then saw the meeting of the ‘Gang of Eight’, where Rubio briefed members on Iran. For those unfamiliar, the Gang of Eight consists of the highest-ranking members of Congress and the intelligence committees. It is standard procedure to brief them ahead of major operations, particularly one involving Iran. But to me, this suggests either new intelligence has emerged or there is a covert element unfolding that we are not seeing from the front.

Chuck Schumer, a Democratic leader within the group, responded cryptically:
“This is serious. The administration has to make its case to the American people.”
In Washington terms, that is about as close as you will get to saying, “I agree,” across party lines.

Listen to Schumer’s Answer 

The Reversal
And then with all this news, it was beginning to be extremely close to certain we’re going to see something — and that is always a warning that we are not seeing the full picture. The narrative began to change in the media both anti-western and western. When news about the aircraft carrier broke, the same way its sewage system reportedly did, my suspicions were raised. To be clear, I’m not saying the issue was fabricated. The USS Ford has been deployed for a long time; sailors are exhausted, and equipment inevitably needs maintenance. Just look at the hull. What stood out, though, was the rapid amplification. Anti-Western media outlets and several OSINT accounts on X and Telegram aggressively pushed the story. Some circulating videos were later shown to be old. Soon after, major Western outlets (Axios, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal) began publishing pieces highlighting internal concerns about the risks and potential success of an Iran campaign, as well concerns over troop morale. The substance across these reports was largely similar. Using Axios as a reference point, the broader narrative shifted toward caution and uncertainty.

Axios reports
Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine has been advising President Trump that a military strike on Iran carries serious risks, particularly the possibility of a prolonged conflict and deeper U.S. entanglement. His caution comes amid an internal debate within the administration over whether to pursue military action or extend diplomatic efforts. Caine, currently the only military leader briefing Trump directly on Iran, is described by some sources as more restrained than he was during planning for the Venezuela operation. While not opposing a strike outright, he has emphasized the higher stakes involved in Iran, including potential American casualties and escalation risks. Officials stress he would execute any decision Trump makes. Within Trump’s circle, Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff and Vice President Vance are urging more time for diplomacy. Vance has raised concerns about operational complexity and entanglement. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has not strongly aligned with either side. Meanwhile, Sen. Lindsey Graham and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are advocating for military action, warning that delays could weaken leverage. Trump is reportedly leaning toward a strike but has agreed to continue negotiations for now. The decision remains unresolved.

My analysis
What’s important here is that Caine is extremely respected by the President, so his word carries weight. Vance’s positioning is interesting, but Rubio’s stance is more revealing. As we’ve discussed before, he is often the more traditional republican of the two, so him not being a hawk on Iran raises more questions than answers.  We also have to consider the regional impact of U.S. Ambassador to Israel Huckabee’s interview with Tucker Carlson. His comments about Israel taking the Middle East created significant diplomatic friction, this may have upset the order of things.
If the information is accurate, it would suggest that Iran might have more bite than most people have been giving it credit for — given it’s incredibly hard to know the capabilities of Iran from an OSINT point of view.

We detailed Iran’s extensive air defence system and response capabilities in our first Podcast - Check it out here

We have to remember that the media is an incredibly powerful tool. The political system and the press operate in a transactional relationship — information flows both ways, often with strategic intent. Politicians or insiders who want to challenge or influence an administration can use media leaks to shape the narrative at critical moments. So the question becomes: is this simply routine reporting, another distraction campaign — or is there a strategic leak or internal positioning effort by someone close to the administration to disrupt or delay a potential operation at the last minute?

Examples of recent narrative-questioning articles:
Axios
WaPo
WSJ
WSJ x 2

Sources
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Low key don’t disagree lol.

TODAY IN HISTORY

(February 25, 1986): Ousting of Marcos in the Philippines

On this day in 1986, Philippine President Ferdinand E. Marcos, under pressure from the United States, fled his country for Hawaii after a fraudulent electoral victory over Corazon Aquino, who replaced him as president.