Iran FM says "No Talks" After Ship Seizure, New Offensive In Sudan

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

A Canadian rethink on U.S. ties, a likely political shake-up in Bulgaria, and a German citizen detained in Russia set the tone today. At the same time, Iran is wavering on peace talks after a U.S. ship seizure, adding fresh uncertainty to already fragile negotiations.

Meanwhile, a U.S. strike in the Caribbean underscores how military operations are continuing alongside the diplomatic tensions.

Today we take a look at the MENA region. Iran says there will be no more talks after the recent U.S. oil tanker seizure, as the deadline for the ceasefire ends in the next 48 hours. Whilst, in Sudan, the army's latest offensive has possibly stalled.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Canadian PM says close economic ties with US have become a ‘weakness’
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has said that Canada’s traditionally close economic relationship with the United States has become a “weakness” that needs to be addressed. In a public address, Carney pointed to recent U.S. tariff hikes and shifting trade policies as key factors undermining Canadian industries and creating economic uncertainty. He outlined plans to diversify trade, attract new investment and reduce reliance on any single partner, signalling a broader shift in Canada’s economic strategy amid rising tensions with Washington.
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2. Bulgaria’s Kremlin-friendly ex-President set for landslide election win
Former Bulgarian president Rumen Radev is set for a decisive election victory, with his newly formed party leading by a wide margin in parliamentary polls. Early results show his coalition securing around 40–45% of the vote, far ahead of rival parties, potentially giving him enough support to form a government after years of political instability. Radev, often described as Kremlin-friendly due to his stance on Russia and opposition to military aid for Ukraine, has pledged to maintain Bulgaria’s EU path while pursuing a more independent foreign policy.
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3. German citizen detained in Russia over alleged terrorist plot
Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) says it has detained a German citizen in the Stavropol region over an alleged plan to carry out a “terrorist attack” on a law enforcement facility. Authorities claim the 57-year-old woman was arrested in the city of Pyatigorsk with a homemade explosive device in her backpack, which they said was intended for use in the attack. Russian officials have linked the alleged plot to Ukrainian intelligence, though the claims have not been independently verified.
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4. Iran wavers on peace talks as tensions rise after US seizes ship
Iran has signalled it may pull back from planned peace talks with the United States after tensions spiked following the U.S. seizure of an Iranian cargo ship. Tehran condemned the move as “piracy” and a violation of the fragile ceasefire, warning that ongoing U.S. military actions and the naval blockade are undermining any prospects for negotiations. Officials said key disagreements remain unresolved, and participation in further talks now appears uncertain as both sides harden their positions.
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5. Three killed in US strike on alleged drug boat in Caribbean Sea
A U.S. military strike on a vessel in the Caribbean Sea has killed three people, with officials saying the boat was suspected of drug trafficking. The strike is part of an ongoing campaign targeting alleged “narco-terrorist” vessels operating along known smuggling routes in Latin American waters. The operations have intensified in recent weeks, despite limited publicly available evidence about the vessels, and have drawn increasing scrutiny over their legality and broader strategic impact.
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