THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From Ankara’s parliament floor to the deserts of eastern Syria, it’s been a day of sharp political turns and shifting power balances.

Turkey saw fists fly over a cabinet reshuffle, Greece and Turkey signed new cooperation deals, Syria reclaimed a key U.S. base, Washington’s energy chief landed in Caracas, and Brazil’s Lula prepares for high-level talks in India.

In today’s deep dive, we analyse Netanyahu's visit and its effects on negotiations with the U.S and Iran, as satellite image confirms that Iran is reinforcing it's nuclear sites.

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THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Brawl erupts in Turkey’s parliament over justice minister appointment in cabinet reshuffle
A brawl erupted in Turkey’s Grand National Assembly as lawmakers from President Erdogan’s ruling AK Party and opposition figures clashed over the appointment of a new justice minister during a cabinet reshuffle, with tensions boiling over while the controversial nominee took his oath of office. Opposition MPs attempted to block the swearing-in of Akin Gürlek, Istanbul’s former chief public prosecutor known for high-profile cases against opposition members, prompting pushing, shouting and at least one exchange of punches on the chamber floor before order was restored.
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2. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright visits Venezuela to assess oil industry overhaul
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright visited Caracas to assess Venezuela’s oil industry overhaul, meeting with acting President Delcy Rodríguez and other officials as part of efforts to revitalise the country’s energy sector under new reforms. Wright’s trip comes after Caracas enacted a law opening its oil sector to private investment, ending the long-standing state monopoly and allowing independent arbitration, changes aimed at reassuring foreign investors after years of decline and sanctions.
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3. 7 agreements signed at latest Greece-Turkey high-level cooperation council
Greece and Turkey signed seven cooperation agreements on Wednesday during the 6th High-Level Cooperation Council meeting in Ankara, with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and President Erdogan emphasising the importance of maintaining dialogue and improving bilateral ties. The agreements cover a wide range of areas including cultural cooperation, economic and investment collaboration, research and technology partnerships, earthquake preparedness, cooperation between foreign ministries, and the establishment of a new ferry route between Thessaloniki and Izmir.
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4. Syria takes control of Al-Tanf base from U.S. Forces
Syrian government forces have taken control of the strategically located al-Tanf military base in eastern Syria after U.S. troops withdrew from the site, the Syrian Defence Ministry said, with the handover reported to have been coordinated between Syrian and American authorities. The base, situated near the tri-border junction of Syria, Jordan and Iraq, had been a key outpost for U.S. and coalition forces for years as part of operations against the Islamic State group and regional monitoring activities.
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5. Brazil’s Lula to visit India next week, Indian Foreign Ministry says
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is planning a state visit to India from February 18 to 22, 2026, at the invitation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs announced, marking a key moment in bilateral relations. During the visit, Lula will attend the 2nd AI Impact Summit in New Delhi on February 19–20 and hold high-level talks with Modi on February 21, underscoring cooperation on technology, economy and global issues.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

No Clear Outcomes From Bibi Visit, As Iran Digs In.

The Meeting
Publicly, President Trump struck a measured tone. He described the meeting as “tremendous,” insisted negotiations with Iran would continue, and signalled preference for a deal if one could be reached. Yet he paired that language with a reminder: when diplomacy stalled last time, Iran was hit with “Midnight Hammer” — the US strikes on nuclear facilities during last year’s 12-day war. The message was clear: talks remain open, but force is not off the table.

Netanyahu arrived with maximalist objectives. His position remains unchanged — Iran must be permanently constrained. No enrichment, no ballistic missile programme, no regional proxy network capable of threatening Israel. In essence, strategic paralysis of Tehran. Regime change would be ideal; structural disablement would suffice. From Netanyahu’s perspective, anything short of that leaves Israel exposed.

Board of Peace:
Israel has formally joined Trump’s newly launched “Board of Peace,” with Netanyahu signing the accession during his visit to Washington. The board, authorized by a U.N. Security Council resolution in November, was initially designed to supervise Gaza’s temporary governance under Trump’s ceasefire plan and may establish an international stabilization force. Its first meeting is scheduled for February 19 in Washington to discuss Gaza’s reconstruction. Trump has since expanded the board’s scope to address global conflicts. Critics argue the initiative risks undermining the United Nations, particularly as it excludes Palestinian representation and faces cautious participation from several U.S. allies.

Our Analysis 
The tension lies in Trump’s calculus. While aligned with Israel historically, Trump has shown openness to a transactional arrangement if it can claim diplomatic success. Recent indirect talks in Oman suggest Washington is testing whether Tehran will concede on enrichment and regional posture. Iran, however, has already signalled its ballistic missile programme is non-negotiable.

What comes next is conditional. If negotiations progress, Netanyahu will pivot toward shaping the terms of any agreement to ensure it meets Israel’s security threshold. If talks stall, pressure for renewed strikes will grow — particularly with regional assets already surged.

The bigger question is how much sway will Netanyahu have on any further talks. We know Trump and Bibi have a strong relationship and it may be a major factor in any agreement. But his maximalist does not offer much room for maneuvering. This is further constrained by Iran’s own tough positions, refusing to discuss anything besides nuclear, at least publically. 

What also complicates attempting to read into the geopolitical crystal ball is that with Netanyahu in one ear, it’s JD Vance that is leading the negotiations. Vance represents the more America First/Isolationists camp within the Trump administration who would be eager to get a diplomatic deal rather than engage in another foreign conflict. Bibi’s entrance to the Board of Peace may also be an appeasement to Trump to attempt to get more international recognition (which I doubt it will help much) in return for more hardline stance during negotiations.

Iranians Dig In, Literally
Satellite imagery indicates that Iran has fully buried the tunnel entrances at its Isfahan nuclear complex with large volumes of soil, effectively sealing visible access points. The move suggests deliberate hardening against potential airstrikes, sabotage, or special operations raids, particularly amid renewed tensions and ongoing negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme.

However, alternative explanations cannot be ruled out. It is possible the tunnels sustained structural damage beyond rapid repair, prompting burial rather than reinforcement. Another scenario could involve containment measures — for example, sealing off compromised sections due to internal instability, contamination risk, or uranium-related safety concerns. Without independent inspection, it remains unclear whether this is purely defensive fortification or a response to underlying damage.

Sources
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TODAY IN HISTORY

(February 12, 1818): Chile's independence from Spain declared

Although the decisive victory over the Spanish did not come until April at the Battle of Maipú, Chile formally declared independence from Spain on this day in 1818, the first anniversary of Chile's victory at Chacabuco.