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Iran Seizes Two Ships In Hormuz, Trump Extends Ceasefire

In today’s deep dive, we’re giving a strategic update on Syria. As the geopolitical tectonic plates continue to shift in the region.

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

President Trump extends the ceasefire “indefinitely”, ass Iran seizes two new ships in the Hormuz. Further north in Europe, Russian drones continue to target Ukrainian infrastructure as the latter continues attacks on oil and gas facilities. Macron says that France supports Lebanons territorial integrity and will require the full withdrawal of Israeli troops. In Asia, Japan scraps its historic export ban and Indonesia landmark workers law after 22 years.

In today’s deep dive, we’re giving a strategic update on Syria. As the geopolitical tectonic plates continue to shift in the region.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Trump Extends US-Iran Ceasefire Indefinitely 
President Trump has extended the ceasefire with Iran until Tehran submits a permanent proposal to end the conflict, despite having previously vowed not to prolong the truce. Iran's senior adviser dismissed the extension as meaning "nothing," while an Iranian UN envoy suggested talks could still happen if the US lifts its naval blockade, which Tehran has called an act of war. Vice President JD Vance's planned trip to Islamabad to lead a second round of negotiations was subsequently called off. The situation remains deeply unstable with no confirmed path to formal talks.
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2. Russia-Ukraine drone war exchanges continue
Russian attacks killed six people and injured 59 others across Ukraine over the past day, local authorities reported on April 21. A separate Russian drone attack on the city of Sumy overnight injured at least six more people. Ukraine's war effort continues into its fifth year, with Zelensky warning of critical shortages in air defence systems. Whilst Ukrainian drones have continued to target Russian oil and gas facilities.
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3. Japan Scraps its Postwar Arms Export Ban 
Japan has formally scrapped its ban on lethal weapons exports, a significant shift in its postwar pacifist policy as the country seeks to build up its arms industry amid concerns over Chinese and North Korean aggression. The new guidelines allow the export of fighter jets, missiles and destroyers, limited to 17 countries with existing defence agreements. Australia welcomed the change as key to deepening the two countries' defence industrial partnership, having already signed a $6.5 billion deal for Japanese-designed frigates. China criticised the move.
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4. Macron Conditions Lebanon Stability on Israeli Withdrawal 
French President Emmanuel Macron affirmed France's support for the territorial integrity of Lebanon, stating that the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the country is a precondition for stability. The declaration carries weight as Israel and Lebanon continue fragile ceasefire negotiations, with Hezbollah still operating in the region outside the scope of the US-Iran truce framework. France's assertiveness here signals that European powers are looking to stake independent diplomatic ground on Lebanon, separate from Washington's broader regional agenda.
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5. Indonesia Passes Landmark Domestic Workers Law After 22 Years
The Indonesian parliament passed the landmark Domestic Workers Protection Bill into law after 22 years of deliberation. The legislation covers millions of domestic workers across the country, a sector historically excluded from standard labour protections. For Southeast Asia's largest economy, the law represents a meaningful step on labour rights, though advocacy groups note that enforcement will be the real test. The bill had stalled repeatedly across multiple administrations before finally clearing parliament this week.
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