Iran Strikes Haifa, Israel Progresses In Lebanon, Russia-Ukraine Stalled

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

The Middle East conflict continues to ripple outward today with Israel intercepting another attack from Yemen, Iran confirming the death of a senior IRGC naval commander, and Benjamin Netanyahu ordering an expanded ground operation in southern Lebanon.

Elsewhere, Myanmar’s Min Aung Hlaing has stepped down as military chief to pursue the presidency, while Spain has moved to close its airspace to U.S. planes linked to the Iran war.

In today’s deep dive, we cover the latest from the Iran conflict, diving deep into the Israel-Hezbollah battles as well as the Russia-Ukraine frontline.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Israel reports second attack from Yemen as Middle East conflict escalates
Israel said it intercepted a second attack launched from Yemen as the Middle East conflict tied to the Iran war continues to widen. The Israeli military reported that two drones fired from Yemen were detected and intercepted, marking the second such attack since Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement entered the conflict. The incident comes as Israel also faces missile strikes linked to Iran and continues air operations targeting military infrastructure, raising concerns about a broader regional escalation.
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2. Myanmar’s military leader moves one step closer to becoming president
Myanmar’s military chief Min Aung Hlaing has stepped down from his role as commander-in-chief to pursue the presidency in an upcoming parliamentary vote. The move follows controversial elections won by a military-backed party and is widely seen as an attempt to transition his rule from direct military leadership into a formal civilian position. Command of the armed forces has been handed to General Ye Win Oo, a close ally, as the country continues to face an ongoing civil war following the 2021 coup.
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3. Iran confirms killing of senior IRGC naval commander Tangsiri
Iran has confirmed the death of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval commander Alireza Tangsiri, who died after being seriously wounded in a strike during the ongoing conflict in the region. Iranian authorities acknowledged his death days after Israel said it had targeted him in an airstrike as part of operations against Iranian military leadership. The killing of the IRGC Navy chief marks a significant escalation in the conflict and highlights the focus on high-ranking military figures linked to Iran’s maritime operations.
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4. Netanyahu orders military to expand invasion of Southern Lebanon
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered the military to expand its ground invasion in southern Lebanon as fighting with Hezbollah intensifies along Israel’s northern border. The move is aimed at widening a “security zone” and pushing militant forces and anti-tank missile threats further away from Israeli territory, potentially extending operations toward the Litani River.
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5. Spain closes airspace to US planes involved in Iran war, defence minister says
Spain has closed its airspace to U.S. military planes involved in the Iran war, according to Spanish officials, expanding its earlier decision to deny the United States the use of jointly operated bases on Spanish soil. The country’s defence minister said both Spanish airspace and bases are not authorised for operations linked to the conflict, except in emergency situations. The move reflects Madrid’s opposition to the war and could further strain relations between Spain and the United States as the conflict continues to escalate.
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GLOBAL CONFLICT TRACKER

Russia-Ukraine
In the Huliaipole sector, Russia’s offensive led by elements of the 5th Army has largely stalled since early February, shifting the fighting into a positional phase. Ukrainian forces, centred around the 225th Assault Regiment, have stabilised the front following earlier counterattacks Limited Russian gains have been made around Hahariha Mohyla (hill 163), with partial control of the eastern and central sections, though Ukrainian units still hold the northwestern slope, leaving it contested. Further south near Zaliszne, Russian forces are attempting to break through Ukrainian defensive “locking positions,” while both sides increasingly rely on small DRG infiltration groups to probe gaps and disrupt rear areas. Russian units are trying to ensure that Zaliznyczne becomes more hassle than it’s worth, yet Ukraine remains committed to its defence. The ridgeline connecting the two Ukrainian villages has proved a useful supplypoint, as well as vantage point. Zaliznyczne is also tactically important given its larger size than Hulajpilskie offering much more defensive opportunities. 

Side Note:
Like I said last night, mechanised assaults will be making a comeback, at least early on in this phase of the war. One advantage the Ukrainians currently have is that the Russians have not yet found a suitable alternative to Starlink. For those not aware, Musk has effectively shut off Starlink access for Russian forces. These systems were immensely valuable, allowing units to communicate with frontline and DRG elements with ease, and coordinate combined operations with drone teams. That capability has now largely disappeared. So the reason we’re seeing a tank push onto an uncovered trench system, and no, it’s not 2023, is likely because Russian units in these positions cannot effectively communicate or organise a coordinated drone response.
Watch video here

Israel-Hezbollah
Israeli operations in southern Lebanon have accelerated over the past 48 hours, with advances now occurring across multiple axes, signalling a coordinated effort to collapse Hezbollah’s defensive network rather than isolate individual towns. In the central sector, the IDF pushed across the border near Menara, rapidly clearing Meiss El Jabal before driving north toward Chaqra. Parallel gains were made further east, where Israeli forces expanded control around Houla, Markaba, and the surrounding high ground, tightening their grip on key observation points. The most significant breakthrough came along the Kfarkela–Marjaayoun axis. Israeli units cleared Aadaysit Marjaayoun, seized Rab El Thalathine, and then exploited the momentum north into Taybeh. Rather than a slow urban grind, forces bypassed central resistance, taking the northern sections before pivoting inward. Taybeh is now close to full control. From there, operations extended west into Deir Seryan, Qanatra, and Aadchit El Qsair, widening the penetration.

To the northeast, heavy fighting continues in Khiam. Israeli forces have entered and largely secured the eastern, central, and parts of the northern sectors, with demolition operations ongoing. Hezbollah remains active, continuing rocket fire on Israeli positions despite territorial losses. Along the eastern flank, advances near Halta and toward Chebaa — including movement from the Syrian side — indicate a broader attempt to pressure Hezbollah from multiple directions simultaneously.On the coastal axis, Israeli units have secured al-Bayada and pushed inland toward Shamaa, creating a two-pronged threat that has effectively compromised Hezbollah’s defensive cohesion in the area. Pockets of resistance remain, but organised lines appear to be fragmenting. Overall, roughly 40 km² has shifted in Israel’s favour. The tempo and structure of these advances suggest a transition from probing operations to sustained territorial consolidation.

Iran Conflict Overall
Overnight US-Israeli strikes hit Tehran and other Iranian cities, with power infrastructure specifically targeted in the capital. The attacks caused a blackout, which Iranian authorities say has since been restored. The USS Tripoli has arrived in the region carrying 3,500 additional US Marines, and the Washington Post (citing unnamed Pentagon officials) reports preparations underway for weeks of possible ground operations in Iran, potentially involving special forces and conventional infantry, though falling short of a full-scale invasion. Iran has managed to successfully target Haifa port and refinery facilities. The same facilities we saw being hit last year when interceptors were running low.

Trump said in an interview he wanted to "take the oil in Iran," while simultaneously claiming, "We'll make a deal with them, I'm pretty sure." Pakistan remains the key diplomatic broker: Islamabad hosted talks on Sunday and says it is preparing for "meaningful talks" in coming days. Trump has claimed Iran agreed to "most of" a 15-point US peace framework, though Tehran's position remains ambiguous. Though Iran continues to say nothing has been agreed.

Iran's IRGC issued a deadline of March 30 (today) demanding the US condemn strikes on Iranian universities or face expanded attacks on American university campuses in the Gulf, including Texas A&M and Northwestern in Qatar and NYU in the UAE.

Brent crude up over 50% since the war began — the IEA calling it the biggest oil supply shock in history. Prices have reached over $115, as Ethiopia is another country to enact some form of rationing.

Sources available upon request
AMK, Theti Mapping, Suriyak and LebanonMonitor on X / Telegram were sources today for Lebanon-Israel
Thorskill for Huliaipole frontline

TWEET OF THE DAY

January to March has been absolute madness.

TODAY IN HISTORY

(March 30, 1867): U.S. purchases Alaska from Russia

On this day in 1867, U.S. Secretary of State William H. Seward struck a deal to purchase Alaska from Russia for $7.2 million. The decision was mocked as “Seward's folly,” not least because it was a well-known fact that Russia had been attempting to sell Alaska since before the American Civil War. Seward's critics were silenced, however, following the Klondike gold rush, in which about $50 million was mined—enough to justify the price of the purchase many times over.