THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

The Iran conflict continues to ripple across the globe: U.S. lawmakers reject an effort to halt the war, a U.S. submarine sinks an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka, and European forces quietly bolster their presence in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Meanwhile, tensions spread to the Caucasus as Azerbaijan accuses Iran of a drone strike, while in East Africa Somalia’s parliament votes to extend the president’s term, stirring political debate at home.

In today’s deep dive, we cover Iran targeting Israel's central oil supply, as the U.S. looks to buy Ukrainian interceptors. Whilst Russia condemns suspected Ukrainian attacks on it's naval assets.

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This weeks topics:
Geopolitical shift: Leaders increasingly suggest the post–Cold War order is fading, with Trump’s foreign policy reflecting a move toward a more unstable and competitive era.
Conflict reality: The U.S.–Israel war with Iran is becoming more complex than expected, with no rapid collapse of the Iranian system despite the scale of strikes.
Changing battlefield: Ballistic missile barrages have declined, while Shahed drone attacks have expanded, exposing strain on air defences, jamming, and coordination systems.
Escalation risk: Kurdish militant activity in western Iran raises fears of a proxy ground war, with the possibility of troops on the ground not fully ruled out.

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THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Senate Republicans vote down legislation to halt Iran war
U.S. Senate Republicans voted down a war powers resolution aimed at halting the ongoing U.S. military campaign against Iran, marking Congress’s first major vote on the conflict. The measure would have required President Donald Trump to seek congressional approval before continuing military operations against Tehran, but it failed in a 47–53 vote largely along party lines. The result leaves the administration’s authority to continue strikes against Iran intact for now.
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2. US uses torpedo to sink Iranian warship off Sri Lankan coast
A U.S. Navy submarine sank an Iranian warship off the southern coast of Sri Lanka using a torpedo, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between Washington, Israel, and Tehran. The vessel was struck in international waters while returning from naval exercises in India, with reports indicating at least 87 sailors were killed and dozens more missing. The strike was confirmed by U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, and is notable as the first time since World War II that a U.S. submarine has sunk an enemy warship using a torpedo.
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3. Greek frigates Kimon and Psara dock in Limassol port in Cyprus
Two Greek Navy frigates, HS Kimon and HS Psara, docked at the port of Limassol in Cyprus as part of heightened security measures in the Eastern Mediterranean. The deployment comes amid escalating regional tensions linked to the wider conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States, with European allies increasing their military presence around Cyprus. Greek officials said the ships form part of a defensive posture aimed at strengthening the island’s security and protecting regional maritime routes.
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4. Azerbaijan vows to respond after drone attack
Azerbaijan has vowed to respond after supposed Iranian drones struck its Nakhchivan exclave, injuring civilians and damaging infrastructure, including the terminal building of Nakhchivan International Airport. Azerbaijani officials condemned the incident as a violation of sovereignty, summoned Iran’s ambassador for an explanation, and said the attack would not go unanswered.
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5. Somali parliament approves constitution change to extend President’s term
Somalia’s parliament has approved constitutional amendments extending the terms of both lawmakers and the president from four to five years, effectively delaying the country’s next elections by one year. The measure passed with 222 out of 329 lawmakers voting in favour, and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud described the move as a milestone in completing the country’s long-delayed constitutional process. However, opposition leaders criticised the decision and called for elections to proceed as originally scheduled, warning the amendment could deepen political tensions in a country still facing security threats from al‑Shabaab.
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IRAN-USA CONFLICT DAY 6

So in the last 48 hours, and specifically in the last two hours, we have seen Iranian ballistic missile strike attempts on Turkish territory, as well as drone strikes on Azerbaijan. There has been quite a commotion about this, especially after the drone incident in Cyprus. Many are speculating that these could be false flag operations aimed at drawing regional rivals into the conflict against Iran.

Regarding Azerbaijan, the Caucasus nation has a deep relationship with Israel and is historically a rival to Iran. But to add to that, the second largest ethnic minority group in Iran are the Azeris in the north of the country. Azerbaijan has said it will respond and that these attacks will not go unnoticed. Geopolitically, Azerbaijan has a lot to gain from a destabilised Iran.

But if we go back to resources – geopolitics rarely goes without a side of resources on the table – Azerbaijan is a major supplier of Israeli oil, making up around 40-47% of Israel’s total imports. How does it get there? Through the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. Now the targets begin to make more sense. We’re also seeing the Arash-2 drone being used in the Azerbaijan strikes, suggesting these are high-value targets. These drones are bigger and pack a bigger punch, carrying a 150kg warhead compared to the roughly 50kg warhead on the Shahed drones. Note: Iran denies responsibility.

The U.S. is now looking to buy Ukrainian interceptor drones to counter the Shahed issue they’re having in the Gulf. Ukraine has rapidly expanded production of interceptor drones designed to counter Iranian-made Shahed drones used by Russia, producing 100,000 just last year. Over 20 Ukrainian companies are now working in this field, with output increasing eightfold in 2026. Interceptor drones reportedly achieved a 60%+ mission success rate and accounted for over 70% of Shahed shootdowns in February, demonstrating a scalable and cost-effective air defence solution. The problem is, can Ukraine really afford to sell these systems when the Russian air campaign has shown no signs of slowing down?

On the Lebanon–Israel border, clashes continue as Israeli ground troops make a slow push to create a buffer zone against Hezbollah rocket attacks. Hezbollah, in turn, has released footage of at least 4–6 Israeli tanks being targeted. Suriyak, who I do consider a reliable source in most instances, says that at least two have been destroyed and four damaged. However, Suriyak’s bias clearly shows when it comes to Israeli-involved conflicts. There has been confirmation, though, that two Israeli soldiers were injured during a Hezbollah ATGM attack on an Israeli Merkava tank.

Strikes also continue on Iranian government, police, and military infrastructure in Kurdish-majority areas. In the last hour, an IRGC barracks in Sanandaj was targeted. This comes as Iraqi sources state that overnight U.S. or Israeli helicopters dropped unknown vehicles near the Iraqi–Iranian border. More and more whispers are now circulating about a possible ground assault — a high-risk gamble that I’ve talked about before.

Lastly, there is growing rhetoric among U.S. politicians that this conflict is a religious one, in terms of good versus evil. This is a very slippery slope but likely the reason behind this is to ensure support continues amongst die-hard republican pro-zionist voters. Especially if this conflict drags out longer than the administration intends.

DAILY DEEP DIVE

Ukraine Targets Russian Navy and Gas Assets, Ethiopia Carries Out Attacks On Targets In Sudan

Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Overnight on March 1–2, Ukrainian forces carried out strikes against the Russian naval base in Novorossiysk, reportedly damaging a Russian frigate and several other naval vessels. This continues Kyiv’s broader strategy of pushing the war deeper into Russia’s rear logistics and naval infrastructure. At the same time, Moscow is accusing Ukraine of escalating the conflict after a Russian LNG tanker in the Mediterranean Sea exploded and sank, claiming it was hit by Ukrainian sea drones. If confirmed, this would represent a significant expansion of Ukraine’s maritime drone campaign, targeting not only military assets but also vessels linked to Russia’s shadow energy fleet, which helps Moscow bypass sanctions and fund the war. 

Horn Of Africa Conflict
Sudan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs says it has been monitoring unmanned aerial vehicles entering Sudan from Ethiopian territory throughout February and early March, striking targets inside the country. Khartoum condemned the incidents as a serious violation of sovereignty and an act of aggression, warning Ethiopian authorities of consequences and affirming its right to defend its territory by all necessary means.

This development adds another layer to Sudan’s already complex war. Increasingly, the conflict is showing signs of regional spillover, with rival blocs emerging.  With broadly UAE-aligned networks backing one side, while Saudi and Turkish interests align with opposing factions,  turning Sudan into a wider geopolitical battleground.

Sources
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TODAY IN HISTORY

(March 5, 1770): Boston Massacre

Harassed by a mob, British troops on this day in 1770 opened fire, killing Crispus Attucks and four others in the Boston Massacre, an event that galvanized anti-British feelings in the lead-up to the American Revolution.