Iranian Missile Launches Rise With Growing Concerns In White House

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

A dramatic leadership shift in Iran leads today’s headlines as Mojtaba Khamenei takes over as supreme leader amid an expanding regional war.

Elsewhere, the EU moves to broaden its global security ties, Belgium investigates an explosion at a synagogue in Liège, Guinea dissolves dozens of political parties including key opposition groups, and Azerbaijan reopens cargo traffic at its border with Iran after a tense drone incident.

In today’s deep dive, we analyse new numbers as Iranian missile and drone launches remain steady, while insider sources hint at frustration at the White House — and possible special forces operations in Iran.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Iran names Mojtaba Khamenei as new supreme leader after father’s killing
Iran has named Mojtaba Khamenei as the country’s new supreme leader following the killing of his father, Ali Khamenei, in strikes linked to the ongoing Iran–U.S.–Israel conflict. Iran’s clerical body, the Assembly of Experts, selected the 56-year-old cleric to lead the Islamic Republic, giving him ultimate authority over the country’s political system, armed forces, and foreign policy. The appointment marks a rare father-to-son succession in Iran’s post-1979 political system and comes as the country continues to face escalating regional war and international pressure.
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2. EU to sign defence partnerships with Australia, Iceland, Ghana
The European Union is set to sign new security and defence partnerships with Australia, Iceland, and Ghana, expanding its network of global security cooperation agreements. The announcement was made by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, who said the deals reflect growing international interest in diversifying strategic partnerships amid rising geopolitical risks. The agreements are expected to strengthen cooperation in areas such as cybersecurity, maritime security, counter-terrorism, and crisis management, while not creating formal military alliance obligations.
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3. Synagogue in Belgium hit by explosion
An explosion damaged a synagogue in the eastern Belgian city of Liège in the early hours of Monday, shattering windows at the building and nearby properties but causing no injuries. Police said the blast occurred around 4 a.m. outside the synagogue, and the area was quickly cordoned off as investigators began examining the scene. Belgian authorities, including federal prosecutors, have launched an investigation into the incident, which local officials have condemned as a suspected antisemitic attack.
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4. Guinea orders dissolution of 40 political parties, including 3 main opposition groups
Guinea’s government has ordered the dissolution of 40 political parties, including the country’s three main opposition groups, in a decree issued by the Ministry of Territorial Administration. Authorities said the parties failed to meet legal requirements such as administrative and financial obligations, and the order strips them of their legal status while banning the use of their names, logos, and symbols. Opposition figures have condemned the move as an attempt by President Mamady Doumbouya’s government to eliminate political rivals and consolidate power following his rise to power after the 2021 military coup.
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5. Azerbaijan reopens Iran border to cargo traffic after drone incident
Azerbaijan has reopened its border crossings with Iran to cargo traffic after briefly suspending them following a drone incident that injured civilians in the Nakhchivan exclave. The closure came after Azerbaijan accused Iran of launching drones that struck near an airport and a school in the region, allegations Tehran has denied. Officials in Baku said reopening the crossings was aimed at restoring trade flows while tensions between the two neighbours remain elevated amid the wider regional conflict.
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IRAN-USA CONFLICT DAY 10 - Drones Are Not Stopping?

So we discussed the issue of American and Israeli air superiority and the effects this would have. We have seen a dramatic drop in both drone and ballistic missile launches, but the last two days have been something of an outlier.

Since March 5, we’ve seen an average of around 35 ballistic missiles launched per day. This has already broken some analysts’ estimates that Iran would not be able to launch missiles by day 10. This was one of those graphs and pieces of analysis (I’ll try link it below) that I looked at and wondered whether there was an agenda behind it. There is a false assumption that because a trend is going down, it will eventually lead to zero. I was always wary of that conclusion because it takes the numbers at face value rather than considering the broader circumstances.

Two possibilities come to mind. First, is Iran intentionally pacing its launches, something we’ve discussed ad nauseam. Second, are the U.S. and Israelis failing to deliver decisive blows to the missile infrastructure?

The underground missile complex at Isfahan continues to launch missiles even after being hit by repeated airstrikes and having been a primary target during last year’s war. The solution to cruise missiles and bunker busters may in practice be simpler than expected, a few excavators and dump trucks clearing debris from tunnel entrances after strikes. It’s not just me thinking this either; OSINT analyst Kim Hovik has made similar arguments.

The next few days will tell us whether these numbers are simply anomalies, or whether Iran is pacing its launches under sustained U.S.–Israeli pressure. Again, it’s still early days and there is a lot of speculation.

The drone issue, however, is slightly different. Drones can be launched from almost anywhere. You can launch a dozen drones from an 18-wheeler, from a field, or even from a garage, you get the point. They’re also cheap to produce, and Iran has demonstrated repeatedly that it can manufacture them in large numbers despite sanctions.

It also appears that in the last few days drone launch rates have not declined significantly. Naturally, they are much harder to track as well, with smaller heat signatures and more flexible launch points.

RUSSIA EVACUATES STAFF FROM NUCLEAR FACILITY - Early warning?
As a final note: Keep an eye out on the nuclear facilities, as well as Kharg island. We may see some form of special forces operations which have been hinted at already. Adding to the speculation is news from Moscow. Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom says up to 200 Russian personnel and their families may be evacuated from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant due to the ongoing U.S.–Israeli strikes. Rosatom previously evacuated 94 non-essential staff, children, and volunteers who wished to leave after the strikes began on February 28. Around 639 Russian workers remain at the facility, many continuing essential operations that cannot be immediately halted. CEO Alexei Likhachyov said evacuation routes and buses have been prepared to move staff during pauses between strikes if necessary. While Bushehr itself has not been targeted, officials say the surrounding situation remains difficult and volatile.

CAUTION CONTINUES TO GROW IN THE WHITE HOUSE 
U.S. officials were reportedly surprised by the scale of Iran’s military response. According to reporting from the New York Times, planners had not expected Iranian retaliation to be so extensive or sustained. Some inside the administration believed the operation would unfold more like the recent U.S. intervention in Venezuela — a short campaign, limited resistance, and a quick collapse in pressure. Sources are also saying that Trump has been asking his generals why this operation is taking so long.

Now, any analyst (or even an armchair general) could have told you that this was never going to resemble a Maduro-type operation. Iran is not Venezuela. It has a much larger military structure, missile forces, regional networks, and the ability to absorb punishment while still responding.

This is light-hearted in the sense that, if these reports are true, there really could be a group of yes-men sitting around the White House. Some of the journalists I’ve been listening to who claim to have sources inside the administration describe an environment where it’s not about truth, but about loyalty.

And this is where things become dangerous. If you’ve read my articles on the core weaknesses of autocracies, you’ll know exactly where this leads. One of the fundamental flaws of these systems is the inability to tell the truth to upper management. Over time this creates fake reports, distorted intelligence, and decision-making based on what leaders want to hear rather than what is actually happening on the ground. And for note, I am not saying Trump is an autocrat but the decision-making parallels are important to make. 

So if we read between the lines, the Trump administration may not be operating with fully rational assessments of the situation. And to top it off we have information coming out like this..

The strike that killed Iran’s supreme leader and several senior national security officials also killed a number of other figures who had been meeting elsewhere inside the same complex. Some of those killed were individuals U.S. officials had previously viewed as potential pragmatic interlocutors, people Washington believed might have been open to negotiations.

(source: (Julian E. Barnes @julianbarnes))

TWEET OF THE DAY

Interesting.

TODAY IN HISTORY

(March 9, 1945): The U.S. Army Air Forces firebombed Tokyo, destroying a quarter of the city, killing at least 80,000 civilians, and leaving a million people homeless.