THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Welcome back to your daily briefing. From a dazzling drone show above the Vatican to renewed US–China trade talks in Madrid, it’s been a busy 24 hours on the global stage.

We’re also tracking major developments in the Philippines’ anti-corruption push, Trump’s UK visit with big tech and energy deals, and a cabinet shake-up in Algeria.

And in today’s deep dive we take a look at new satellite imagery that shows new strikes previously hidden during Iran’s ‘True Promise 2’ missile campaign.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Vatican lights up with drone show at historic ‘Grace for the World’ concert
Last night in St. Peter’s Square, Vatican City, over 3,000 illuminated drones painted the sky with awe-inspiring images, from the "Creation of Adam" to a radiant portrait of Pope Francis, during the “Grace for the World” concert, capping off the World Meeting on Human Fraternity. The lineup featured international stars like Andrea Bocelli, Pharrell Williams, Karol G, John Legend and others, blending sacred art, music, and technology in a message of peace and unity.
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2. US-China talks head into second day focused on Trade, TikTok
U.S. and Chinese officials are meeting in Madrid for a second day of trade talks led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, with TikTok’s divestment deadline looming and trade tensions high. The discussions are focused on tariffs, export controls, rare earths, and digital security. While neither side is expecting a blockbuster deal immediately, there’s pressure to at least agree on another extension for TikTok’s deadline and to set clearer ground rules on trade and tech amid growing mutual distrust.
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3. Philippines’ President Marcos says no one will be spared in infrastructure corruption probe
President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. has launched an independent commission to investigate alleged corruption and anomalies in infrastructure projects and vowed that no one, no matter their status, will be exempt. He flagged ₱545 billion in flood control spending since 2022 that includes projects that were substandard or never completed, with only 15 out of over 2,000 contractors grabbing 20% of the budget. Amid growing public anger and planned protests, Marcos also cancelled all flood-control projects for 2026, redirecting funds toward education, health, and agriculture.
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4. UK, US to sign deals on technology, nuclear energy during Trump visit
Trump’s rare second state visit to the UK, the United States and Britain are set to unveil major agreements on technology and civil nuclear energy as part of a broader push to deepen economic and strategic ties. The UK hopes these deals will help finalise reduced tariffs on steel and aluminium under its much-anticipated trade deal with the U.S. Alongside this, there will be multibillion-pound U.S. investments in British tech firms, and joint projects for small modular and advanced nuclear reactors.
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5. Algerian President appoints new Prime Minister and Energy Minister
Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has appointed Sifi Ghrieb as the new Prime Minister and Mourad Adjal as Minister of Energy & Renewable Energy in a sweeping cabinet reshuffle. Ghrieb, previously serving as Industry Minister and acting PM, steps in for Nadir Larbaoui, while Adjal moves from leading state power firm Sonelgaz into the energy portfolio. The shake-up comes as Algeria pursues economic diversification to reduce reliance on hydrocarbons.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

NEW SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS IRANIAN STRIKES ON ISRAEL

Report on Satellite Imagery and Strike Data – Nevatim and Tel Nof Air Bases
Recent open-source imagery updates (September 2025) have provided new clarity on the scale and precision of Iranian missile strikes against Israeli air bases last year. Almost one year of no access shows both the limits of OSINT and the ability of governments to censor information.

Note: We linked the OSINT account that has been tracking strikes in the sources section, please check it out! Note the source has clear anti-israel undertones, but the work is still relevant. This is the reality of OSINT work, many have different political leanings.

Tel Nof Air Base
High-value impacts have been identified at 31.825136°, 34.825437° and 31.83070°, 34.82166°, both within the Tel Nof complex. The imagery shows evidence of a secondary explosion triggered by the destruction of an on-site explosives factory. Damage extended beyond operational facilities, with at least one staff housing block hit directly, leading to multiple collapsed buildings and a visible fissure at the epicenter of impact. Despite this, the Israeli government has issued no public acknowledgment of either the strike or resulting casualties, keeping all discussion of Tel Nof officially suppressed.

Nevatim Air Base
The first round of analysis in May 2025 suggested approximately 36-46 confirmed missile impact points. With the latest September 2025 imagery, analysts have identified 11 additional strikes, bringing the total to 47-55 roughly confirmed impact craters. Several further points remain classified as “uncertain” due to resolution limits, but the scale of destruction indicates a sustained and precise missile campaign.

Imagery Sources and Constraints
The imagery used in this analysis comes from publicly available OSINT providers, which generally supply low-resolution material. This limits the ability to confirm fine structural damage and often delays detection of additional impact points. By contrast, companies such as MAXAR Technologies possess high-resolution satellite capabilities, able to capture detailed ground impacts and structural collapse. However, these products are commercially priced (often costing hundreds of dollars per frame) and sensitive imagery is rarely released such as military strikes.

Broader Strike Package
Overall estimates suggest 55+ ballistic missile hits across these facilities. The data further implies a reduced Israeli interception rate of ~58%, far below official narratives or visual material circulated at the time. This discrepancy highlights the continuing importance of external verification through satellite imagery rather than relying solely on state-released information.

Our Assessment
Iran appears to have taken lessons from both True Promise 1 and True Promise 2. Whereas those earlier operations concentrated heavily on military installations, the latest strikes were more dispersed, targeting not only military sites, but also energy infrastructure and government agency buildings.

The newly released satellite imagery also underscores several points we have raised before. First, modern states are not currently structured to wage a long, sustained war. Arms buildups are designed primarily for deterrence, not for enduring conflict. Israel could not indefinitely maintain its air and missile defenses, just as Iran could not sustain prolonged offensive operations. Israel needed the assistance of regional allies (or better yet enemies to Iran) and the U.S to bolster their own air defence systems. And Israel arguably has some of the best AD on the planet. We saw systems being overloaded and used for their incorrect role, short range defence systems being used on ballistic missiles, hypersonics and ballistics going straight through.  

Second, while ballistic missiles are powerful weapons, their limitations are clear. Even large-scale salvos often deliver only limited damage. Without the ability to maintain air superiority or sustain strike capacity over weeks, the effectiveness of ballistic campaigns diminishes.  With an alleged 150 missile launch platforms spread across 12 underground facilities, Iran’s passive defence strategy has power, but we saw the limitations. Iran’s salvos continually got smaller, largely in part due to Israel air superiority over western Iran, SOF operations, and different Iranian tactics. Yet, interception rates continue to drop over Israeli airspace. Nonetheless, a few ballistics getting through AD do not have the weight to shift a conflict.

Third, Israel retains the ability to censor information, just as it did following True Promise 1 and 2. We are only now receiving clearer details about the recent “12-day war” between Israel and Iran. For example, fresh imagery and footage of the strike on the Haifa oil refinery, an event that at the time was heavily restricted and censored. Now, this satellite imagery from the strikes of True Promise 2. Censorship in wartime is, of course, not unique to Israel. Ukraine, for instance, has laws preventing the filming of impact sites to avoid giving the enemy valuable targeting information. But this also has a dual effect: it allows states to deny the effectiveness of enemy strikes and simultaneously fuels propaganda narratives. Both purposes can—and often do—coexist.

Sources:
Sources available on request, reduced to maintain visual integrity of page.

satellitesmaps.com. (n.d.). Esri satellite imagery – Tel Nof area. Retrieved September 15, 2025, from https://satellitesmaps.com/?m=esri&t=s&lat=31.829691277036215&lng=34.82130646705628&z=18

var_ya_da_yok. (2025, September 12). [Tweet about satellite imagery of Tel Nof strike] [Tweet]. X (formerly Twitter). https://x.com/var_ya_da_yok/status/1967224817243107405

TWEET OF THE DAY

Not sure who she is, nor do I watch the Emmys, however a bold move nevertheless…

TODAY IN HISTORY

(September 15, 1821): Central Americans granted independence

On this day in 1821, Central American notables accepted a plan drafted by the Mexican caudillo Agustín de Iturbide that brought independence from Spain to Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua.