THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From Russia’s satellite interference and the EU’s bid to strengthen ties with Greenland to a historic milestone in the Church of England, the headlines cut across security, diplomacy, and society.

We’re also following Israel’s interception of the final Gaza flotilla boat and fresh tensions between Venezuela and the United States.

And in today’s deep dive, we’re doing a two-part analysis on whether Netanyahu’s grip on power is collapsing — by first focusing on Israel’s domestic politics.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Russia targeting UK military satellites on weekly basis, says UK Space Command
UK Space Command head Major General Paul Tedman said Russian forces are attempting to jam the UK’s military satellites on a weekly basis, calling the interference both persistent and worrying. He added that these satellites are also being closely monitored by Russian spacecraft, which carry payloads capable of gathering intelligence and possibly interfering with operations. The UK’s space-based assets all have counter-jamming capabilities, but the escalation underscores growing vulnerability in a domain that is becoming increasingly contested.
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2. EU to double financial support for Greenland
The European Union plans to double its financial support to Greenland under its upcoming 2028-2034 budget, increasing the total allocation to about €530 million. This boost is part of a broader strategy to strengthen ties with Greenland and underscore its strategic importance in the Arctic amid rising interest from powers like the U.S. and China. If approved, the extra funds will largely support education, energy transition, green infrastructure, and digital development in Greenland.
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3. Church of England names first female Archbishop of Canterbury
Dame Sarah Mullally has been appointed the first female Archbishop of Canterbury in the Church of England’s 1,400-year history, marking a landmark moment for the Church. Previously Bishop of London and a former chief nursing officer for England, Mullally will succeed Justin Welby and officially assume the role in early 2026. She has pledged to tackle internal divisions over LGBTQ rights, improve safeguarding policies, and promote unity across a global Anglican Communion challenged by both liberal and conservative pressures.
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4. Israel intercepts last Gaza flotilla boat, begins deportations
Israel intercepted the final vessel of the Global Sumud Flotilla, the Marinette, about 79 km off the Gaza coast and detained around 450 activists onboard. The government confirmed it has begun deporting detainees, with several already sent home, and says all those held are in good health. The move marks the conclusion of the flotilla operation and has stirred protests and diplomatic fallout across Europe and beyond.
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5. Venezuela accuses U.S. of flying combat planes near its coast
Venezuela’s Defense Minister, Vladimir Padrino López, claimed that five U.S. combat aircraft were detected flying near Venezuelan coastal airspace, calling the manoeuvre a “provocation” and warning of national response if the flights continue. The government framed the action as a threat to sovereignty, stating it could trigger a “mobilisation” of defensive forces. The accusation adds another layer to escalating tensions between Caracas and Washington amid ongoing U.S. military operations in the Caribbean.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

IS NETANYAHU’S GRIP ON POWER COLLAPSING?

As the anniversary of the October 7 attacks approaches, Benjamin Netanyahu will be feeling increasingly uneasy. The second half of 2025 has already proven to be among the most turbulent of his long career, defined by deep fractures at home and mounting pressure abroad. Part One of our analysis explored the widening cracks within his government, the military, and Israel’s security agencies, from failed hostage rescues and clashes over the Philadelphi Corridor, to court battles over the sacking of the Shin Bet chief and threats from far-right coalition partners. In Part Two, we will turn to the external forces shaping Netanyahu’s future: global pressure over the war in Gaza, the shifting momentum of international support, Trump’s high-stakes peace plan, and the enduring role of Hamas — both as a military adversary and as a defining factor in Netanyahu’s legacy

Centralisation Of Power
Netanyahu has been facing significant internal fractures within the government, the military, and the intelligence agencies. The first half of 2025 saw attempts at further centralisation of command, a process that arguably began when Netanyahu disbanded the six-member war cabinet (the previous year), which has since been replaced by ad hoc decision-making based on consultations with the security cabinet. In February and March 2025, Netanyahu replaced Mossad chief David Barnea and Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar in the negotiating team with close confidant Ron Dermer, before moving to fire Ronen Bar outright. The courts and the Attorney-General intervened; the Supreme Court later ruled the dismissal illegal, and Bar announced he would step down in June. Opponents argued this had stalled negotiations, while Netanyahu’s allies claimed it would lead to further breakthroughs. In March and April 2025, Netanyahu was further entangled in the so-called “Qatargate” scandal, after investigators alleged that close aides in the Prime Minister’s Office had received covert payments from Qatari officials. The revelations came as Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar’s agency was reportedly involved in probing the affair, fuelling suspicions that Netanyahu’s push to dismiss him was politically motivated. Netanyahu denied any wrongdoing, testifying in the case and dismissing it as a witch-hunt, but the scandal deepened mistrust between his office and Israel’s security establishment.

Issues With The IDF And Intelligence
The army has also begun to oppose the political objectives of Netanyahu and his party. Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir hand-delivered a secret memo to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu weeks before the IDF’s current military offensive in the Gaza Strip, warning that the operation lacked a “political endgame” and further risked the lives of both hostages and soldiers. Much of the war effort centres on the return of hostages, and an intensified air and ground campaign risks killing them indirectly. The IDF chief is attempting to avoid a repeat of September 2024, when Hamas executed six hostages and left their bodies to be discovered by advancing IDF troops. That episode led to nationwide protests and arguably sowed the seeds of distrust between the ruling party and the military. Moreover, video evidence has shown the remaining hostages are in poor medical condition, which reduces their survival chances in an active, highly traumatic, and hostile war-ridden environment.

This tension is not only evident with the domestically focused Shin Bet and the IDF but also within Israel’s renowned Mossad agency. Mossad declined to carry out a planned ground raid in Doha against Hamas leaders, with Director David Barnea warning it would endanger Qatar’s role as a key mediator in ceasefire talks. Instead, Netanyahu ordered an airstrike using 15 jets, which failed to kill the targeted officials but killed several relatives, aides, and a Qatari officer — later confirmed when senior Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya survived and attended his son’s funeral. The move deepened internal rifts, with IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir and negotiators opposing the timing over hostage risks, while Netanyahu, Ron Dermer, and Defence Minister Israel Katz defended it as a rare opportunity to strike Hamas leadership and retaliate for recent deadly attacks.

The Philadelphi Corridor remains a thorn for peace, this narrow strip of land along Gaza’s southern border with Egypt that has become one of Netanyahu’s central red lines in ceasefire negotiations. Netanyahu insists on retaining Israeli control of the corridor, arguing it is vital to prevent weapons smuggling into Gaza, despite pressure from the U.S. and mediators to compromise. His stance has provoked sharp clashes with the IDF, Mossad, and Shin Bet, who argue that making the corridor a precondition endangers hostage talks and risks prolonging the war.

Bibi also faces deep internal political challenges from within. Polls show the Israeli public overwhelmingly favours a deal that secures the release of hostages and ends the fighting, increasing pressure on his government to compromise. Yet his far-right coalition partners, notably Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, have threatened to quit if Netanyahu accepts a ceasefire or supports the US-backed Gaza plan, which blocks settlement expansion and annexation. Their departure could collapse his coalition, though opposition leader Yair Lapid has pledged a “safety net” to support a hostage deal in the Knesset. Netanyahu is also fighting to preserve his political survival amid corruption trials and demands for a state inquiry into the intelligence failures of 7 October, which many say undermined national security. Netanyahu’s position is increasingly defined by his corruption trials and efforts to avoid accountability for the failures surrounding October 7. He continues to delay proceedings and resist calls for a full state inquiry, moves that critics argue are designed to protect his political survival rather than serve the national interest. His legacy now appears tied not only to the war in Gaza but also to whether he can continue deflecting responsibility for years of policies that critics say emboldened Hamas and left Israel dangerously exposed.

Internal Political Strife
The internal political strife has also widened between Netanyahu’s camp, the opposition, and Israel’s security establishment. While the far right demands hardline positions, opposition parties accuse Netanyahu of clinging to power through a “forever war,” pointing to his resistance to compromise even after mounting civilian and military losses. Polls suggest that if elections were held today, Netanyahu’s coalition could lose ground, particularly if Ben-Gvir and Smotrich break away, but his strategy is to delay elections until he can present a major achievement such as a hostage release or ceasefire deal under Trump’s Gaza plan. Early signs of political manoeuvring  can be seen as Ron Dermer is set to leave his role as Strategic Affairs Minister aligning with growing calls from hostage families who have accused him of having “no plan forward” – no hostages have been released during his role in the negotiations. Time will tell, but there is not much of it left as an early election is expected.

PART TWO…. SUBSCRIBE SO YOU DON’T MISS IT.

In part two, we will examine Netanyahu’s global influence, particularly his standing in the United States and whether it is waning; the Trump peace plan and we will also analyse the role Hamas will inevitably play in shaping his legacy.

Sources:
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TODAY IN HISTORY

(October 3, 1990): Germany reunified

After four decades of Cold War division and with pressure from the German chancellor Helmut Kohl, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev agreed to a unified Germany within NATO, leading to Germany's reunification this day in 1990.