THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

It’s been an eventful 24 hours across politics, security, and culture.

From Belgium’s surprise airspace shutdown amid a drone scare to New York electing its first Muslim mayor. The U.S. continues its controversial maritime strikes in the Pacific, while London paused to honour one of its most famous sons as David Beckham finally received his long-awaited knighthood. And with the passing of former Vice President Dick Cheney, Washington reflects on one of the most consequential figures of the post-9/11 era.

Today, we’re reading between lines of Trump’s recent comments about Nigeria, from rare earth minerals, to China and Russia.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. David Beckham gets his long-awaited knighthood from King Charles
David Beckham was officially knighted by King Charles III at Windsor Castle on November 4 2025, receiving the title “Sir” in recognition of his outstanding contributions to sport and charitable work. He said the honour was the proudest moment of his life, highlighting not just his football legacy but also his long-standing roles with UNICEF and other philanthropic efforts. The ceremony capped a remarkable journey from a modest East-London upbringing to global stardom, reinforcing how sport and public service can converge on the world stage.
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2. Zohran Mamdani wins New York mayoral race
Zohran Mamdani has been elected mayor of New York City, winning the Nov. 4 race and making history as the city’s first Muslim mayor and one of its youngest ever, at 34. His grassroots campaign, centred on housing affordability, transit reform and wealth redistribution, resonated with a wave of young voters and progressive activists across the city. The result marks a major moment for the Democratic left and sets a bold agenda facing business-leaders, city finance officials and the broader political establishment.
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3. U.S. kills two more people in latest strike on vessel in the Pacific
At President Trump’s direction, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth announced a lethal operation by the Department of War targeting a Designated Terrorist Organization (DTO) vessel smuggling narcotics along a known trafficking route in international waters. Outcome: Two male narco-terrorists killed; illicit cargo destroyed. No U.S. personnel were harmed.
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4. Former U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney dies aged 84
Dick Cheney, the 46th Vice-President of the United States under George W. Bush, has died at age 84 from complications of pneumonia and cardiac and vascular disease. Known for transforming the vice-presidential role into one of expansive influence, Cheney’s legacy remains deeply polarising. As America’s political landscape remains sharply divided, his passing highlights both the end of an era and the enduring debate over executive power and foreign intervention.
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5. Belgium ordered to close all airspace as multiple groups of drones fly over country
Belgium temporarily shut down air traffic over major airports including Brussels and Liège after multiple groups of unidentified drones were detected flying over the country’s airspace on the evening of November 4. The incursions, which also targeted the sensitive NATO base at Kleine-Brogel, have raised alarms about espionage and air-defence shortcomings, with Belgian authorities now ordering military action to intercept rogue drones. Officials say the scale and sophistication of the drone flights suggest a coordinated operation rather than random incursions, heightening concerns about hybrid threats to European infrastructure.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

Is Trump Jumping Into The Modern ‘Scramble For Africa’?

Donald Trump has threatened Nigeria with military intervention—“guns-a-blazing”—if its government doesn’t stop what he calls the mass killing of Christians. He ordered the U.S. military to prepare, warned of cutting all aid, and accused Nigeria of failing to address extremist violence. Nigeria rejected the claims and affirmed its religious-freedom commitment but equally kept open the idea of support against terrorist groups like Boko Haram. 

There are several angles to consider. These public statements by Trump, along with the montage videos shared by Pete Hegseth, could be an attempt to rally his evangelical support base at home, especially as the Hamas–Israel conflict begins to quieten. There’s also a geopolitical dimension, Trump is on a global mission to reduce U.S. dependence on China for rare earth minerals, and Africa could represent the next strategic frontier. Additionally, this move might serve as a diplomatic play to undermine Putin’s growing influence across the Sahel, potentially leveraging it to bring him closer to negotiations over Ukraine.

The Domestic Effect
If we’re to believe a CNN report, Trump had reportedly watched a segment on the persecution of Nigerian Christians on Fox  and began tweeting about it almost immediately after landing on Air Force One. Analysts view this as part of his impulsive yet strategic diplomatic style, testing Nigeria’s response. Abuja’s reaction was measured: officials firmly rejected the allegations while reaffirming the country’s commitment to religious freedom, yet subtly left the door open for deeper cooperation with Washington on counterterrorism efforts against groups like Boko Haram.

As the Hamas–Israel conflict temporarily quietens (hopefully for good), segments of Trump’s evangelical base have shifted their focus toward broader narratives of Christian persecution. This mirrors earlier rhetoric centred on “white farmer” killings in South Africa. Trump clashed with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa at the White House after confronting him with reports of violence against white farmers. Trump claimed Australia was being flooded with South African refugees, while Ramaphosa rejected the idea of “white genocide,” saying crime affects everyone. The meeting, which included Elon Musk and golfer Ernie Els, turned tense despite starting friendly. According to a recent poll, Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 37%, his lowest point in the second term, with 63% disapproving of his performance. While polls often lean against him, his vocal support for causes backed by his evangelical base could help rebuild favour among American and international Christian communities. Especially on the backdrop of continued criticism of settler attacks on Christian communities. 

African Rare Earth Minerals And China
According to a 2022 Brookings report, Africa’s rare earth market was largely untapped, constrained by weak infrastructure, limited exploration budgets, and a lack of refining capacity compared to China. Only a few projects, such as Malawi’s Songwe Hill and Namibia’s Lofdal, were active at the time, while vast reserves in Tanzania, Madagascar, and the DRC remained underdeveloped due to poor geological mapping and regulatory uncertainty.

By 2025, this picture has begun to change. With global demand for rare earth minerals set to quadruple by 2030, Africa is projected to supply 10% of global output within five years, up from 1% in 2020. Major projects in Malawi, South Africa, Angola, and Tanzania are moving into production, supported by rising prices as China curbs exports. Governments are shifting strategy, emphasising domestic refining and value addition rather than raw exports, as seen in Zimbabwe’s lithium export ban. Most importantly most analysts would agree, Africa’s rare earth boom is being driven by Western firms, not China. While Western firms like Mkango Resources and Pensana PLC currently dominate investment, the continent now stands at a turning point, evolving from an underexplored frontier to a strategic pillar in the global energy transition supply chain.

China remains Africa’s largest trading partner and lender, providing over US$170 billion to 49 nations since 2000. However, African countries often engage China individually, weakening their leverage. Analysts suggest coordinated regional strategies, stronger private-sector involvement, and clearer negotiation frameworks to ensure partnerships better align with Africa’s long-term economic interests. And Nigeria is a significant partner in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Director General Joseph Tegbe of The Nigeria-China Strategic Partnership (NCSP) recently announced over $20 billion in new investment commitments across agriculture, mining, steel, and energy, aligning with President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda. Therefore, it comes as no surprise that publicly declares its support for Nigeria and opposes Trump’s calls for possible action. 

While a majority share of the rare-earth minerals would be produced out of key countries like Tanzania, South Africa, Malawi and Angola in 2029, it does not mean more will be located as the Western world looks anywhere and everywhere to minimise dependency on China. 

A Blow To Putin?
What caught my attention was the Deputy Secretary of State's comments on X regarding Mali. The U.S. Deputy Secretary of State praised Mali’s armed forces for their operations against Islamist militants linked to JNIM. In a call with Mali’s Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop, he reaffirmed shared regional security interests and expressed optimism for expanding cooperation between Washington and Bamako. Countries in the Sahel have fallen under Russia’s soft power influence since France’s withdrawal in recent years. However, Mali is currently facing a nationwide fuel blockade by JNIM militants, while Burkina Faso continues to struggle against jihadist insurgencies in rural regions. These setbacks have raised doubts about Russia’s ability to protect its allies in the Sahel. Trump may see this as an opportunity to challenge Putin’s influence by courting key African states—potentially using it as diplomatic leverage to advance his broader goal of securing peace in Ukraine. Could we be seeing a U.S ‘testing of the waters’ into Nigeria a nation bordering the Sahel and directly impacted by the same jihadist groups, and now Mali?

Sources:
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Interesting… Long gold? 😂 

TODAY IN HISTORY

(November 5, 2024): Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, defeating Kamala Harris; he became the first convicted felon to be elected to the office and the second president to win a second nonconsecutive term.