THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

It’s a day of rapid escalation across multiple fronts: Iran’s Supreme Leader has been killed in a joint US–Israeli strike, Tehran has swiftly appointed an interim leadership council, and the fallout is already reverberating from missile strikes in Israel to deadly protests outside the US consulate in Karachi.

As regional tensions mount, violence has also flared between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with air strikes and reported exchanges of fire over Kabul underscoring just how fragile the neighbourhood has become.

In today’s deep dive, we unpack how many munitions have been fired by both sides, current strategies and the overall context in the last 24 hours.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Iran’s Supreme Leader killed in US-Israeli attack
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had ruled the Islamic Republic since 1989, was killed in a joint US–Israeli airstrike on his compound in Tehran, Iranian state media and multiple international sources confirmed. The attack, part of a broader offensive by United States and Israel targeting Iranian leadership and military infrastructure, marked a dramatic escalation in hostilities and triggered a 40-day national mourning period declared by Tehran. Iranian officials have warned of retaliation and regional instability as the country begins a leadership transition amid ongoing strikes and heightened tensions across the Middle East.
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2. Iran appoints Ayatollah Alireza Arafi to leadership following death of Khamenei
Following the reported death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Iran’s Expediency Discernment Council appointed Ayatollah Alireza Arafi as the clerical member of a three-person interim Leadership Council tasked with exercising the supreme leader’s duties during the transition period. Arafi, a senior cleric and member of the Guardian Council, will serve alongside President Masoud Pezeshkian and Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei until the Assembly of Experts selects a permanent successor.
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3. Nine killed as protesters storm US consulate in Karachi, Pakistan
Hundreds of Shiite protesters stormed the U.S. Consulate in Karachi, Pakistan, smashing windows and clashing with police in a demonstration sparked by outrage over a joint US–Israeli strike that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader. Pakistani authorities said at least nine people were killed and several others wounded in the confrontations as security forces used tear gas and baton charges to disperse the crowd and restore order.
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4. At least 8 people killed after missile strike on Israeli town of Beit Shemesh
At least eight people were killed and dozens more injured on Sunday after an Iranian missile struck the Israeli city of Beit Shemesh, west of Jerusalem, according to Israeli emergency services and media reports. The impact hit a residential area, prompting a major response from Magen David Adom search and rescue teams as medical personnel treated the wounded and continued recovery efforts.
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5. Afghanistan fires at Pakistani jets over Kabul as conflict intensifies
Afghan authorities reported that Taliban-led forces fired at Pakistani military aircraft over Kabul on Sunday, after Pakistani jets carried out air strikes inside Afghan territory amid escalating clashes between the two neighbours. The exchanges came after Pakistan targeted what it said were militant infrastructure sites, claims Kabul denies, and were accompanied by explosions and gunfire echoing across the Afghan capital.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

Day 2: Hypersonics, Airbridge, No End In Sight

Israeli Strikes
Israeli officials indicate preparations for a sustained campaign, saying operations could continue for a month or longer if required.

“We will press the offensive until surrender or regime change,” they stated.

According to those officials, Israel has released roughly 1,200 munitions so far, while U.S. forces have deployed about 1,050. A notable shift is the scale of aerial refueling: during the previous 12-day conflict, only four tanker aircraft were involved — now approximately 50 are operating.

“In practical terms, the skies are filled with fuel stations for aircraft that need to refuel,” one official said, adding that the coming days will demonstrate the scope of what has been achieved.

Source: Yinon Magal / Clash Reports

Again, the buildup here is significant. There is a constant airbridge operating from Israel to Iran  and if you’re struggling to visualise what that means, let me paint the picture.

Imagine a ski lift running 24/7. Except instead of skiers, it’s F-35s, F-22s, and F-15s.

Fighter jets launch, fire their missiles with near-impunity, then loop back to refuel mid-air or rearm at base — and go again. When they need maintenance or a fresh loadout, they rotate out and another aircraft takes their place.

You have to give credit where it’s due,  this is an enormous logistical operation running like clockwork, at least for now.

As I’ve said before, the initial objective is to dismantle major air defence and radar systems, particularly across western Iran and around Tehran. Neutralising those layers would eventually grant near-total air superiority, making any sustained combing campaign over central and eastern Iran far less contested.

Another factor worth noting: many of the strikes are occurring in heavily Kurdish and Azerbaijani-populated regions. If you read between the lines of Trump’s remarks and Israeli rhetoric about internal pressure, it suggests an expectation — or at least a calculation — that ethnic fault lines inside Iran could become more active as the campaign unfolds.

Iranian Strikes
Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Gulf states following U.S.–Israeli attacks saw large numbers of missiles and drones launched at neighbouring countries, most of which were intercepted.

According to Gulf government statements:

• UAE: 137 missiles and 209 drones
  

• Qatar: 66 missiles
  

• Bahrain: 45 missiles and 9 drones
  

That means Iran fired roughly as many missiles at the UAE in a single day as it did at Israel during the exchange.

These figures underline both the scale of Tehran’s regional response and the intensity of air defence efforts in the Gulf.

Iranian strikes are still maintaining pressure on air defence systems across the Middle East, and surprisingly we’re seeing some issues intercepting Shahed drones. It really puts into perspective how much experience the Ukrainians now have in dealing with sustained missile and drone assaults. Some have speculated that recent strikes on hotels in the Gulf may be less about damaging the tourism economy and more about targeting U.S. service personnel housed in hotels after certain bases were evacuated — potentially identified through Iranian intelligence.

We’ve also seen confirmation from Iranian sources claiming hypersonic missile use and an attack on the UK base in Cyprus. With the death of the Ayatollah, Iran appears to be deploying heavier systems and testing escalation boundaries. The importance of Cyprus should not be underestimated given its NATO significance.

Regarding strikes on Israel, assessing damage is difficult due to a near-total information blackout, much stronger than last year. At present, the ballistic missile salvos do not appear to pose a major strategic threat. That said, a recent video showed nine interceptors fired at two incoming ballistic missiles, all missing, resulting in an impact in Tel Aviv. Whether this reflects increased Iranian capability or Israeli defence fatigue remains unclear.

Lastly, the force imbalance appears overwhelming. Regaining airspace control was always going to be an uphill battle for Iran — on its own soil, or rather, in its own skies. But if Iran cannot stop this airbridge, a long term ballistics missile campaign will prove increasingly difficult to sustain. 

Read This Post, Let Us Know Your Thoughts
Peter Girnus is implying that a genuine diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran was close (possibly historic) with Iran reportedly agreeing to zero uranium stockpiling, irreversible conversion, full verification, and a “never, ever” commitment not to pursue nuclear weapons. The sudden launch of Operation Epic Fury suggests that military escalation overtook or sidelined this progress, according to this diplomatic aide present in Oman during the negotiations.

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