THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Here are the big stories making waves in geopolitics today. The EU is pushing to cut off Russian LNG by 2027, Trump has held back a $400 million arms package for Taiwan, and the U.S. stood alone at the UN in vetoing a Gaza ceasefire resolution.

Meanwhile, protests in Italy’s ports are disrupting arms shipments to Israel, and the Dutch Parliament has voted to classify Antifa as a terrorist group.

And in today’s deep dive, we’re heading to Kupiansk, where Ukraine is sending key reinforcements to this critical sector.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. EU proposes full ban on Russian LNG from 2027
The European Commission is set to propose a legally binding ban on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports by January 1, 2027, as part of its 19th sanctions package against Moscow. Under the plan, new import contracts would be prohibited starting in 2026, and long-term contracts phased out so that by the end of 2027 the EU no longer depends on Russian gas and LNG. Supporters say the ban is essential to cut off a major revenue stream for Russia’s war, while critics warn it could drive up energy prices and test Europe’s energy security.
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2. Trump halts $400 million in Taiwan weapons aid
Trump has declined to approve a more than US$400 million military aid package to Taiwan this summer, signalling a shift away from arms grants and toward deals where Taiwan pays for its own defence. The aid would have included lethal weapons like autonomous drones, making it “more lethal” than past packages, according to people familiar with the matter.
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3. U.S. vetoes UN Security Council resolution demanding immediate Gaza ceasefire
The United States vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution on Thursday that would have demanded an immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire in Gaza and required Israel to lift all restrictions on aid deliveries. The resolution won 14 out of 15 votes in the Council, with the U.S. standing alone in opposition, citing concerns the text failed to adequately condemn Hamas or require its disarmament.
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4. Italian port blocks arms for Israel as worker protests mount
Italy’s port of Ravenna has become a flashpoint in the arms-shipment debate, with local authorities seeking answers over allegedly unauthorised containers bound for Israel sparked by civil society group investigations. Dockworkers and union leaders are demanding tighter enforcement of Italy’s Law 185/1990, which restricts arms exports to countries at war, and accusing the government of lax oversight.
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5. Dutch Parliament adopts Geert Wilders’ motion to terror-list Antifa
The Dutch House of Representatives voted 78-72 to adopt a non-binding motion proposed by Lidewij de Vos and co-signed by opposition leader Geert Wilders, urging the government to designate Antifa as a terrorist organisation due to its alleged violent activities. The government must now respond and consider implementing the designation, though no timeline has been set and further action remains pending.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

FIREFIGHTERS ARRIVE AT KUPIANSK ‘FIRE’

Kupiansk: Fluid Front, Firefighters on the Move
The fight for Kupiansk is accelerating. Over the past week Russian units pushed into new sectors of the city and surrounding settlements, while Ukraine has responded by transferring its 3rd Assault Brigade, the same formation used as “firefighters” around Pokrovsk to stop rapid Russian advances. We did mention that while Russia will primarily focus on the Donbas this winter, its other priority would be Kupiansk. The redeployment signals that Kyiv also views the Kupiansk axis as one of the most critical pressure points on the northeastern front.

Russian Advances Inside the City
Geolocated evidence (Sep 16) places Russian forces on Sadova Street in Kupiansk, confirming movement deeper into the city.

Over the past three days, Russian Telegram channels and Deepstate reported Russian control of key facilities in northwest Kupiansk, including the electrical substation, bread factory, and garage area.

East of the Oskil: A Looming Trap
The most dangerous development lies east of the Oskil River. Over the past four days, Russian troops reportedly infiltrated across the Hnylytsya River, threatening to cut off Ukrainian defensive positions still holding ground in Kupiansk’s eastern districts. Tactical breakthroughs have been rumoured, though the extent of Russian control remains contested. If Russian units manage to consolidate positions across the river, Ukrainian troops stationed east of the Oskil face the risk of being encircled and cut off from the main defensive line.

Western Flank
The western flank is far more murkier, the situation can be described as fluid but with a stronger Russian presence. There is a strong presence of Russian DRG units in Sobolivka and AZOV may attempt to neutralise them to ensure that the supply lines to Kupiansk city are no longer at threat. The reason Sobolivka is a priority is that it’s capture would mean Kupiansk last major supply route would be cut off, or at least under fire control. 

Ukraine’s Response: 3rd Assault Brigade
In response, Ukraine is transferring the 3rd Assault Brigade to the Kupiansk sector. This elite formation has developed a reputation as Kyiv’s “firefighters,” deployed wherever Russian advances threaten to overwhelm local defenses. Most notably, the brigade was used to blunt Russian pushes around Pokrovsk, halting what could have been a larger operational breakthrough. Their redeployment to Kupiansk indicates the seriousness with which Ukrainian command views the situation.

This is an effect of the wider Russian strategy that we have talked about often. Russian units attempt to create as many fires on the frontline as possible in an attempt to stretch Ukrainian troops. Many ‘fires’ are put out, but all it takes is for one to work. This tactic has allowed Russian units to penetrate towards Pokrovsk, Kostiantinivka and now Kupiansk.

Sources:
Sources available on request, reduced to maintain visual integrity of page.
Suriyakmaps, Kalibratedmaps, Deepstate, ISW, AMK_Mapping

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(September 19, 1796): George Washington's Farewell Address published

In his Farewell Address, printed in a Philadelphia newspaper on this day in 1796, George Washington, the first U.S. president, implored his country to maintain neutrality and avoid entangling alliances with Europe.