Lebanese Ceasefire Finished? Israel Pushes North

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Markets, diplomacy, and ceasefires are all being stress-tested today — with oil prices surging after Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, while fresh fighting between Russia and Ukraine is already straining a US-backed truce.

Elsewhere, Thailand’s political heavyweight Thaksin Shinawatra is back out of prison and back in the headlines, Turkey is stepping deeper into Gulf diplomacy with talks in Qatar, and China has once again blocked Taiwan from attending the World Health Assembly in Geneva.

Israel is seemingly ending the ceasefire with an expansion past the “Yellow Line”, whilst the negotiations are stuck in gridlock — similar to Ukraine-Russia.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Oil prices jump after Trump dismisses Iran proposal to end war
Oil prices jumped sharply after President Donald Trump dismissed Iran’s latest proposal to end the conflict, calling Tehran’s response to the U.S. peace framework “totally unacceptable.” Brent crude rose more than 4% at one stage amid fears that tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could continue disrupting a vital global energy corridor responsible for roughly a fifth of the world’s oil shipments. Iran’s proposal reportedly included demands for sanctions relief, an end to naval blockades, and guarantees over maritime security, while Washington continues pushing for broader negotiations covering Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.
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2. Ukraine and Russia trade accusations of violating US-backed ceasefire
Ukraine and Russia have traded fresh accusations of violating a US-backed ceasefire, with both sides reporting drone attacks, artillery fire, and clashes along multiple frontline regions despite the temporary truce. Ukrainian officials said Russian strikes continued across areas including Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Kharkiv, while Moscow claimed it intercepted dozens of Ukrainian drones and accused Kyiv of targeting Russian territory during the ceasefire period. The agreement, brokered as part of a broader US-led push for peace negotiations, is already showing signs of strain as fighting and mutual distrust continue to undermine efforts toward a longer-term settlement.
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3. Thailand’s former PM Thaksin Shinawatra released from prison
Thailand’s former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has been released on parole after serving eight months of a reduced one-year prison sentence tied to corruption and abuse-of-power convictions stemming from his time in office. The 76-year-old billionaire and political heavyweight was greeted by supporters outside Bangkok’s Klong Prem Central Prison, with authorities requiring him to wear an electronic ankle monitor until his sentence formally ends later this year. Thaksin’s release is expected to reignite debate over his enduring influence on Thai politics, despite recent setbacks for the Pheu Thai Party and ongoing scrutiny surrounding his treatment during imprisonment.
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4. Turkey’s foreign minister to visit Qatar for talks on Iran war  
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is set to visit Qatar for talks focused on the Iran conflict, regional stability, and efforts to safeguard shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as tensions continue across the Gulf. Ankara said discussions will centre on the humanitarian and economic fallout of the war, as well as diplomatic pathways to prevent further escalation between Iran, the United States, and regional powers. Turkey has positioned itself as a key intermediary throughout the conflict, maintaining dialogue with both Tehran and Washington while publicly calling for an immediate end to hostilities.
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5. China says it won’t allow Taiwan to attend WHO’s annual assembly  
China said Taiwan will not be permitted to attend next week’s World Health Assembly in Geneva, reaffirming Beijing’s position that the island is part of China and therefore cannot participate separately in international organisations tied to the United Nations. Taiwan said it will still send a delegation to Switzerland for meetings and events outside the formal assembly, arguing its exclusion undermines global health cooperation at a time of growing international health risks. Taiwan previously attended the WHO assembly as an observer between 2009 and 2016, but has since been blocked following the election of governments in Taipei that reject Beijing’s sovereignty claims over the island.
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CONFLICT TRACKER

Israel-Hezbollah
The situation in southern Lebanon continues to deteriorate despite the ceasefire framework remaining technically in place. Over the past two weeks, Israeli forces have expanded operations well beyond previously established buffer areas, with multiple advances reported across western and central sectors of the border region.

According to mapping updates by Suriyak, Israeli troops pushed deeper into Chama, Al-Bayyada, Chihine, Kounine, Ain Ebel, Blida and Khiam, while demolition operations continued in several occupied villages. Most notably, Israeli forces reportedly crossed the Litani River on multiple axes near Deir Seryan and Aalman Marjaayoun, entering areas outside the so-called “Yellow Line” buffer zone.

The expansion suggests a broader operational shift rather than temporary raids, with forces now establishing pressure on both Shia and Christian border towns. Fighting remains ongoing with no indication of de-escalation on the ground.

Gulf War III
We're in familiar territory once again, the good old ‘red line’ paradox. Both sides are offering points that both know won't agree to. The ceasefire brokered by Pakistan back on April 8 is technically still holding, but just barely. Both sides have been exchanging fire in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran launching missile, drone and fast-boat attacks on US naval forces, while Washington says it responded by targeting Iranian military facilities responsible for the attacks. Neither side has officially declared the ceasefire dead, which tells you something about how much both need the diplomatic window to stay open. 

The core sticking point right now is the nuclear file. The US sent Iran a 14-point proposal earlier this week requiring Tehran to commit to not developing a nuclear weapon, halt uranium enrichment for at least 12 years, and hand over roughly 440kg of uranium enriched to 60 percent. Iran's position, bluntly stated, is that the nuclear programme is not on the table. Iranian officials are saying they're still reviewing the proposal and have not yet sent a formal response to Pakistani mediators.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the economic chokepoint everyone is watching. Shipping through the strait has dropped to around 5 percent of its pre-conflict levels, and the disruption has driven up global oil and gas prices significantly. US gasoline prices are reportedly up around 52 percent compared to before the conflict began.

Sources
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TODAY IN HISTORY

(May 11, 1943): During World War II, U.S. troops invaded Attu, one of the Aleutian Islands captured by the Japanese in 1942.