THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Bit of a big day in Geopolitics. Well it’s never a dull day to be fair - but anyway let’s get to it. US-China diplomacy seen as “positive by both sides”, both seek stability amid new tariffs, while Nigeria rejects US pressure to accept deportees.

EU population growth now relies entirely on migration, reflecting deeper demographic strain and growing political divide. Argentina’s former president faces trial for corruption, and the PKK begins disarmament after decades of conflict (this is a big one).

After our latest Ukraine-Russia Mad Max post, we thought it would be a good idea to dive into the crazy role motorcycles play in war. In essence being the 21st century version of Napoleonic Dragoons.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Rubio meets with China’s Foreign Minister
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the ASEAN summit, calling the talks “positive and constructive.” Despite tensions over Trump’s new tariffs, both sides stressed the need to build the right atmosphere for future cooperation. Rubio also met with officials from Russia, Japan, and South Korea. ASEAN ministers criticized unilateral tariffs as counterproductive. The US is pressing for support in shipbuilding to counter China’s dominance, particularly seeking cooperation from South Korea.
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2. Nigeria rejects Trump proposal to accept Venezuelan deportees
Nigeria has rejected US pressure to accept Venezuelan deportees or third-country prisoners, with Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar saying the country is already dealing with its own challenges. Citing Public Enemy lyrics, Tuggar dismissed the US request as unfair. His remarks follow new US visa restrictions targeting Nigerian travellers. The US is reportedly urging several African nations to accept migrants who can't be deported to their home countries. Nigeria says it prefers economic cooperation with the US, especially in energy and minerals, but won’t accept deportation deals.
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3. EU pops population record hitting 450.4 million in 2024
Migration pushed the EU’s population to a record 450.4 million in 2024, offsetting natural decline for the fourth year in a row. Eurostat data shows 2.3 million net migrants compensated for 1.3 million more deaths than births. Germany, France and Italy remain the largest populations, while Malta had the highest growth rate. Despite stricter border controls, irregular crossings dropped 38% last year. The EU’s demographic shift continues to highlight reliance on migration amid aging populations and labor shortages.
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4. Ex-Argentine president on trial for corruption
Former Argentine President Alberto Fernandez will stand trial for alleged corruption tied to public sector insurance contracts during his 2019–2023 term. He’s accused of favoring Nacion Seguros SA, run by a close associate, through a decree mandating exclusive use of the firm. A broker involved was reportedly the husband of his personal secretary. A court has frozen $10 million of his assets. Fernandez also faces a separate domestic abuse case. His Peronist party continues to face multiple corruption scandals, including those involving ex-President Cristina Kirchner.
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5. PKK begins disarming after 40 years of conflict
The PKK has started disarming after over 40 years of conflict with the Turkish state that killed more than 40,000 people. On July 11, around 20–30 fighters destroyed weapons in a guarded ceremony in Sulaimaniyah, northern Iraq. Rather than handing arms to authorities, fighters burned them in a symbolic gesture. The process will continue over the summer.
Turkish President Erdogan praised the move as a major shift. The disarmament follows a May announcement by the PKK to abandon armed struggle, and a video message from imprisoned leader Abdullah Ocalan in June calling it a “voluntary transition” to democratic politics.
The disarmament is monitored by Turkiye’s pro-Kurdish DEM party, Turkish media, and officials from Iraq and the Kurdish Regional Government. Ankara has held direct talks with Ocalan, and even hardline Turkish parties like the MHP now support the process. The PKK remains banned in Iraq, which designated the group a prohibited organisation in April 2024. Civilians in northern Iraq’s Amedi district, near Turkish military outposts, say the conflict has devastated farmland and displaced families. Locals say PKK withdrawal is key to ending shelling and restoring their villages.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

Modern Dragoons: From Horses to Horsepower

The motorcycle units bear striking similarities to 18th–19th century dragoons—mounted infantry who used horses to move quickly, dismounted to fight, and exploited speed and surprise. Today’s “modern dragoons” use Chinese-made Enduro motorcycles like the Sharmax Sport 280 to reach trenches and soft targets, then engage on foot. Videos from Ukraine show assault groups from Russia’s 123rd Motorised Rifle Brigade’s Zarya battalion using motorcycles to traverse open ground at speed, minimising their exposure time in so-called “killing zones.”

Tactical Role and Assault Use
Motorcycle assaults are typically conducted in waves. A group may send 20 riders towards Ukrainian lines: some are struck by artillery or FPVs, others hit mines, and the survivors attempt to establish a foothold. A second wave follows minutes later. Despite high casualty rates, this tactic occasionally yields ground. Ukrainian defenders acknowledge its persistence—though not revolutionary, it complicates defence lines and saturates response systems, especially when backed by indirect fire and drone swarms.

Pros and Cons of the Approach
With the strategic deadlock, Russia has tried to overcome the limitations of traditional mechanised assaults using motorcycles. At first, they were mocked—and in some ways, it is an outrageous approach. But even Ukrainian units (425th Skala Assault Regiment) have now publicly stated they will/are form its own motorcycle units. The key advantage of motorcycles is speed. Compared to infantry on foot or even armoured vehicles, motorcycles reduce exposure time across open terrain and evade detection more easily. They are also far cheaper to replace. However, riders remain exposed to shrapnel, small arms, and drones. PFM-1 anti-personnel mines, scattered by Ukrainian drones, have proven especially effective against bike tyres. According to Tatargami, at least one motorcycle per assault team is fitted with EW jamming equipment to disrupt drone swarms. Much like the dragoons of the Napoleonic era, they are designed to come in fast, dismount, and strike—at the cost of protection.

Motorcycles in Logistics and Mobility
Beyond assaults, motorcycles are being used for frontline logistics—delivering ammunition, evacuating wounded, or relaying messages where radios are jammed. Internal Russian documents reportedly show plans to make motorcycles, ATVs, and buggies standard across all assault units. Their ability to navigate narrow paths and bypass destroyed infrastructure makes them valuable in contested zones. However, they cannot carry heavy loads, and their utility is limited in adverse weather or complex terrain. Notably, as seen in imagery captured by a fibre-optic drone, motorcycles can be stored indoors, maximising camouflage and the element of surprise.

Innovation Through Attrition
In Russia, to make one good omelette, you have to crack open a few cartons of eggs. Russia has a history of absorbing high levels of losses before adapting its tactics. But once it does, momentum builds quickly. As mentioned in today’s post on Mad Max-style battlefield innovations, Russia has largely led the ground-level innovation race, while Ukraine has dominated the airspace in terms of drone warfare and aerial adaptation.

sources:
Frontline Intelligence
Tatargrami on X
GrandpaRoy2 on X
Simplicius [@simpatico771]. Russian forces are increasing use of motorcycles in Ukraine—what seemed laughable is showing tactical utility [Post]. X. https://x.com/simpatico771/status/1780037474900640127
Skala Regiment on Telegram

TWEET OF THE DAY

Hegseth has released a promotional video of US drone capability, some like it, some are roasting him in the comments.

TODAY IN HISTORY

(July 11, 1991): Bosnian Serb forces captured the town of Srebrenica during the Bosnian War. Over 8,000 Bosniak men and boys were subsequently killed, in what became the worst massacre in Europe since World War II.