Major Offensive Against Ethiopia, New Phase of Iran War, Kupiansk Front

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Today’s mix of headlines runs from sharp rhetoric in the Middle East to ballots in Europe and diplomacy over Ukraine’s war.

Trump has issued a stark ultimatum over the Strait of Hormuz, Italy is voting in a pivotal justice referendum, Qatar is investigating a deadly helicopter crash, Vietnam’s ruling party has tightened its grip on parliament, and Ukraine says peace talks will continue in the U.S. this weekend.

In terms of our deep-dives, today we cover the new offensive against Ethiopian government forces by FANO, we also give new updates on the Middle East conflict, whilst covering the Kupiansk front.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Trump threatens to ‘obliterate’ Iran’s power plants if Strait is not reopened in 48 hours
Trump has threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping within 48 hours. The ultimatum, posted on his Truth Social platform, comes as the strategic waterway has been disrupted amid the escalating conflict in the region. The warning marks a significant escalation in rhetoric and raises the prospect of further U.S. strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure if the deadline is not met.
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2. Italians vote in high-stakes justice referendum in key test for Meloni
Italians are voting in a high-stakes national referendum on judicial reforms proposed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, in a vote widely seen as a major political test for her government. The two-day ballot asks voters to approve constitutional changes that would separate the career paths of judges and prosecutors and restructure the body that governs the judiciary, proposals supporters say will modernize the system but critics warn could weaken judicial independence. The result is expected to shape Italy’s political landscape ahead of the next national election.
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3. Qatar says 6 people are confirmed killed in helicopter crash in the Persian Gulf
Qatar has confirmed that six people were killed after a helicopter crashed in the country’s territorial waters in the Persian Gulf. Authorities said the aircraft went down during a routine operation, with officials indicating a technical malfunction may have caused the incident, and search efforts continued for one person still missing. The crash comes as Qatar remains on heightened alert due to regional tensions, though officials have not yet released full details about the victims or the mission.
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4. Vietnam’s Communist Party secures nearly 97% of assembly seats
Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party has secured nearly 97% of the seats in the country’s National Assembly following the latest parliamentary elections, according to official results. The party won 482 of the 500 seats, reinforcing its dominant position in Vietnam’s one-party political system, where most candidates are affiliated with or approved by the ruling party. Authorities also reported voter turnout above 99%, and the newly elected legislature is expected to convene in early April to confirm key leadership appointments, including top state positions.
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5. Ukraine says talks to resolve war will continue in U.S. on Sunday
Ukraine says negotiations aimed at ending the war with Russia will continue in the United States on Sunday after a new round of talks between Ukrainian and U.S. officials began in Florida. The discussions, led by Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov and U.S. envoys, are focused on narrowing remaining differences and moving closer to a comprehensive peace agreement, though Russian representatives were not present at this stage. Previous U.S.-brokered talks earlier this year resulted in prisoner exchanges but no major breakthroughs, with territorial disputes in eastern Ukraine remaining a key obstacle.
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GLOBAL CONFLICT TRACKER

Iran-USA-Israel
Over the past 24 hours, the Iran conflict has continued to escalate across multiple domains, with both sides adapting rather than slowing down.

On the military front, U.S. and Israeli strikes have focused on degrading Iran’s launch capability rather than eliminating it entirely. Around 77% of known tunnel access points to underground missile facilities have reportedly been hit, targeting tempo and coordination. However, the core infrastructure remains intact, meaning Iran retains the ability to sustain operations over time .

Iran has responded with continued missile activity, including a significant strike toward the Dimona area, with at least one impact causing casualties. Iranian officials are now openly claiming “missile dominance,” indicating confidence in their ability to continue or even intensify strikes. It seems Iran has moved to targeting smaller cities, noting that interceptors have been sent to major cities due to possible shortages.

Regionally, tensions are widening. Saudi Arabia has expelled Iranian diplomats, while Iraq has halted production at key energy fields. Maritime threats remain active, with Iran signalling it can selectively control access through the Strait of Hormuz while still exporting oil from Kharg Island.

Ethiopia-FANO
FANO militants have launched a major offensive in the South Gondar Zone of the Amhara region in Ethiopia, targeting government forces. Regional sources claim up to 650 government soldiers have been killed, with 418 captured on March 18 alone. The operation was reportedly launched in memory of Major General Wubante Abate, a key Fano leader killed in 2024.

Multiple local administrations have since collapsed following coordinated assaults between March 18–19. Heavy fighting across Dera, Farta, Guna-Begemidir, and Lay-Gayint resulted in the deaths of senior officials and dozens of militia personnel. In Nefas-Mewcha, Fano briefly seized the town, capturing officials and vehicles before withdrawing. Regime reinforcements have since moved in, while large-scale deployments and shelling continue to stabilize deteriorating positions.

Fano (Amhara militias)
Fano is a loose network of Amhara ethnic militias, not a single unified command. They are primarily aligned with Amhara nationalist interests and operate independently of the federal government. Their goal is to defend Amhara regions and push back against what they see as marginalisation by Addis Ababa. While they were previously aligned with the federal government during the Tigray War, they are now actively fighting against it.

Ethiopian Federal Government / ENDF (Regime forces)
The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), along with regional militias and local administrators, represents the central government under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. They are attempting to maintain territorial control and suppress insurgencies like Fano. They also coordinate with regional security forces.

Russia-Ukraine
Over the past two weeks, Russian forces have made steady gains on the northeastern front, consolidating positions around Kupiansk. The northern part of Petropavlivka is now fully secured, with continued advances from the east and south following control of wooded areas along the Kupiansk road. Further south, Russian units have taken Pishchane and now control roughly half of Kurylivka, pushing up to trench systems in the centre of the settlement. From these positions, infiltration operations have begun into the former Kupiansk foundry, while additional units are probing into high-rise buildings in Kivsharivka.

At the same time, Ukrainian forces have achieved limited gains in western Kupiansk, securing the central hospital and nearby buildings, along with positions north along Mechnykova and Davydova-Luchytskoho streets. As discussed, Russia appears focused on consolidating the eastern bank of the Oskil River after previously failing to fully secure its foothold in Kupiansk. Establishing control on this side, even gradually, would provide stronger staging grounds for future attempts to retake the city. However, Ukraine has reinforced positions north of Kupiansk, which remains the most viable approach into the city without major natural obstacles. This sector is likely to become a key point of resistance and a significant challenge for any further Russian advance.

Sources available upon request

TWEET OF THE DAY

I suppose Australia could just stop selling all it’s commodities into Asia…?

TODAY IN HISTORY

(March 22, 1621): Hugo Grotius is smuggled out of prison in a chest

On this day in 1621, Hugo Grotius was smuggled out of prison in a chest. Religious tensions were running high in Holland, and Grotius tended to err on the side of tolerance—which made him many enemies. He was arrested and sentenced to life in prison in 1618. His guards, however, grew careless: they neglected to inspect the large chest often used to deliver books to Grotius. His wife devised the idea to smuggle Grotius out in the same chest. The plan was successful, and the couple later reunited in Paris. Grotius is remembered now for his plethora of legal writing, which earned him the name “father of international law.”