Mali: Are We Seeing The End Of The Junta?

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Oil markets get a shake-up as the UAE exits OPEC, while diplomacy takes centre stage in Washington with a high-profile royal state dinner.

Russia is dialling back the optics of military power at its Victory Day parade, even as political instability persists in Kosovo with yet another snap election.

Meanwhile, tensions simmer in the South China Sea as Taiwan reinforces its presence on disputed islets.

In today’s deep dive, we focus on the Sahel region — as the Malian Junta’s survival is being pushed to it’s limit every day.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. UAE leaves OPEC in major blow to global oil producers’ group
The United Arab Emirates has announced it will leave OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance effective May 1, marking a significant shift in global energy dynamics. As one of the group’s largest producers, the UAE’s departure is expected to weaken OPEC’s ability to coordinate supply and influence oil prices, while also exposing tensions within the Saudi-led bloc. Officials said the move will allow the UAE greater flexibility to increase production in line with its long-term energy strategy, particularly as global markets remain volatile amid ongoing disruptions linked to the Iran conflict.
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2. Trump hosts state dinner for Britain’s King Charles and Queen Camilla
Trump hosted King Charles III and Queen Camilla at a formal state dinner at the White House, marking a key moment in the British monarch’s four-day visit to the United States. The event brought together senior political figures, business leaders and diplomats, with both sides emphasising the long-standing alliance between the U.S. and the U.K. during speeches and toasts. The dinner formed part of a broader diplomatic programme aimed at reinforcing transatlantic ties, taking place amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and recent strains in relations between the two allies.
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3. Russia to hold Victory Day parade without mili
Russia will hold its annual Victory Day parade on May 9 in Moscow without the traditional display of military hardware, marking a notable departure from past celebrations. The Defence Ministry said the decision was due to the “current operational situation,” with the parade instead featuring marching troops and an aerial flypast. Victory Day, which commemorates the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany, has historically been used to showcase Russia’s military strength, making the absence of equipment a significant shift amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.
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4. Kosovo set for 3rd straight snap election to elect new president  
Kosovo is set to hold its third snap election in just over a year after parliament failed to elect a new president by the constitutional deadline. The deadlock stems from Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s inability to secure opposition backing for his candidate, with the vote requiring a two-thirds quorum that was not met. The collapse of the process automatically dissolved parliament, prolonging political instability and raising concerns over stalled reforms and the country’s European Union ambitions.
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5. Taiwan minister says she visited second islet in disputed South China Sea
Taiwan’s Interior Minister Liu Shyh-fang has said she recently visited a second islet in the disputed South China Sea, underscoring Taipei’s efforts to reinforce its territorial claims. The trip included inspections of infrastructure and meetings with coast guard personnel stationed on the island, with officials highlighting ongoing upgrades to facilities and defences. The visit is likely to draw criticism from Beijing, which claims most of the South China Sea, as tensions continue over competing sovereignty claims in the region.
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CONFLICT TRACKER

Sahel Region

JNIM has announced a siege of Bamako as jihadist and rebel offensives intensify across the country. In the east, Ménaka has reportedly fallen to Islamic State–linked militants after Malian forces and Russia’s Africa Corps withdrew, with remaining troops regrouping at a former UN base.

Multiple withdrawals are underway from the north, including routes from Tessalit, Kidal and Tessit toward Gao, some under militant escort or ambush. Government forces are now largely confined to defensive positions in Gao and Timbuktu.

In central Mali, control remains around Sévaré and Mopti, but the situation is rapidly deteriorating. JNIM presence on the outskirts of Bamako signals a major escalation, with the group declaring a full blockade. The absence of visible support from regional allies Burkina Faso and Niger raises further uncertainty as pressure mounts on the Malian government.

Malian government forces (FAMa), backed by Russia’s Africa Corps (Wagner), have re-entered and resecured Menaka after militants from the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) briefly took control. The fighters have since withdrawn into surrounding desert areas, allowing troops to return to the town centre. Despite this, Menaka remains effectively under siege, with supply routes highly exposed. The city’s longer-term stability will likely depend on developments in Gao and the sustained presence of government forces across eastern Mali.

JNIM spokesman Abu Hudheifah al-Bambari has announced the start of a total siege on Bamako, referencing an operation that reportedly killed the Malian defence minister and warning civilians not to interfere or risk being targeted.For a third consecutive day, JNIM fighters have been seen moving freely across suburban areas and parts of the city, highlighting a sharp deterioration in security inside the capital.

Interesting contrast in jihadist strategy across the Sahel. In Mali, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin and Front for the Liberation of Azawad have publicised relatively lenient treatment of captured FAMa troops, signalling an attempt to encourage surrenders and ease territorial consolidation.

In Burkina Faso, however, JNIM has typically executed captured security personnel, reinforcing a deterrence-through-fear model. The Mali approach may reflect a more calculated governance strategy, potentially drawing from models used by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, where controlled “mercy” is used to facilitate takeover before shifting to harder enforcement.

The last point is the most significant, there is clearly an objective of a smooth takeover. JNIM and allies are trying to win over the population to force a collapse.

Sources
Available upon request
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TODAY IN HISTORY

(April 28, 1996): Operation Mincemeat reaches Spain

On this day in 1943, a body was dropped into the ocean off the southern shore of Spain. It was a crucial moment in Operation Mincemeat. The intent of this covert action was to fool Nazi Germany into thinking the Allies weren't going to invade Sicily—which was exactly what they planned to do. The operation played out over the following weeks and proved to be a success. That was thanks in large part to a memo (most likely) written by a British naval officer who had lifted the idea from a crime novel and, after World War II was over, invented James Bond.