Mali: Both Sides Consolidate Gains

THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

From cross-border strikes in southern Syria to a political shockwave in Mexico, today’s headlines span security crackdowns and high-level controversy.

In the Middle East, tensions remain front and centre as Israeli strikes intensify in Lebanon and Trump warns Iran that military action could resume at any moment. Meanwhile, Europe’s divisions quietly resurface with Slovakia’s leader heading to Moscow.

Today we analyse Russian-backed Malian troops withdrawing in the north, while consolidating in the south. This offensive will be a key test for Russia's power projection.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Jordan strikes drug, arms smuggling sites in Southern Syria
Jordan’s military has carried out airstrikes targeting drug and arms smuggling sites in southern Syria, focusing on facilities used by traffickers along the shared border. Officials said the operation hit warehouses, workshops and launch points used to organise cross-border smuggling, describing the strikes as precise and based on intelligence. The strikes come amid a surge in smuggling attempts into Jordan, with authorities stepping up military action to curb the flow of narcotics and weapons into the country.
read more 

2. Mexican Governor steps aside after US accusations of cartel ties
Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha has stepped aside from his post after U.S. prosecutors accused him and other officials of links to the Sinaloa cartel and involvement in drug trafficking. The U.S. indictment alleges the officials facilitated the movement of narcotics into the United States in exchange for political support and bribes, marking a significant escalation in efforts to target high-level political figures. Rocha has denied the allegations, calling them politically motivated, while Mexico’s government said it will review the evidence domestically, highlighting tensions between Washington and Mexico over sovereignty and legal jurisdiction.
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3. Israeli air strikes on Lebanon kill 41 people in 24-hours despite ceasefire
Israeli airstrikes across southern Lebanon have killed at least 41 people within a 24-hour period, according to Lebanon’s health ministry, marking one of the deadliest spikes in violence since the ceasefire began. The strikes targeted multiple locations as Israel continued operations against Hezbollah, with officials saying the campaign is aimed at militant infrastructure and cross-border threats. The escalation underscores the fragility of the ceasefire, with repeated violations and ongoing exchanges of fire.
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4. Trump says US could restart Iran strikes ‘if they misbehave’  
Trump has said the United States could resume military strikes on Iran “if they misbehave,” underscoring the fragile state of the current ceasefire. Trump also reiterated that he is “not satisfied” with Iran’s latest peace proposal, arguing that the terms remain unacceptable, particularly around nuclear issues and regional security. While diplomatic efforts continue through intermediaries, the warning highlights the risk of renewed escalation as both sides remain far apart on key conditions for a lasting agreement.
read more

5. Slovakia’s PM Fico to attend Victory Day parade in Moscow
Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico is set to attend Russia’s Victory Day parade in Moscow on May 9, according to Russian state media, making him one of only a handful of foreign leaders expected at the event. The parade, which commemorates the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany, will be scaled back this year due to security concerns linked to the war in Ukraine, with fewer displays of military hardware. Fico’s planned attendance highlights his relatively pro-Russian stance within the European Union and is likely to draw criticism from EU partners.
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CONFLICT TRACKER

Sahel Region

Africa Corps and FAMa have completed their withdrawal from Tessalit and Aguelhok, effectively ending meaningful government presence in northern Mali. On the morning of 2 May, joint FLA/JNIM forces entered the Amachach base in Tessalit following the departure of the last Russian soldiers, who transited through the already-abandoned Aguelhok toward Anefif, now the sole remaining government stronghold in the north. The loss of territorial gains made in 2023 appears close to being finalised.

However, the eastern theatre is not following the same trajectory. Wagner/FAMa forces re-entered Bourem on 30 April following search operations across towns between Gao and Bourem, where JNIM and FLA presence was negligible. The recapture is significant. Government forces appear unwilling to cede the Niger River corridor, and with good reason. The river represents a natural defensive line, limiting the operational reach of Tuareg and jihadist forces advancing from the northern desert. Russian air assets are being leveraged to target troop concentrations, supply lines, and forward camps, degrading enemy logistics over time rather than contesting terrain directly.

A similar dynamic is unfolding further south. Following a JNIM advance on Hombori, jihadist forces withdrew to surrounding mountainous terrain rather than holding the camp. Wagner/FAMa returned on 1 May, resupplying besieged positions including Boni and reaching Gossi, held by GATIA militias. The jihadist siege is under strain. The Niger River and the central corridor are emerging as the critical axis on which this conflict will be decided.

Source for update: Suriyak

My Analysis
This moment represents a serious test of Russian credibility in Africa. With questions mounting over Moscow's capacity for power projection while absorbed in Ukraine, and residual pressure following the Assad government's collapse, Africa Corps requires a consolidation success in Mali to demonstrate continued relevance as a security partner.

The strategic priority should be central Mali, not the north. Attempting to hold dispersed positions across vast desert terrain plays to JNIM and Tuareg strengths. The Syrian parallel is instructive: when Damascus abandoned Idlib and concentrated resources on core population and economic centres, battlefield outcomes began to improve. A similar logic applies here.

A big shift I’m noticing this time is that the information dimension is also active. Bamako's foreign minister is publicly attributing jihadist gains to Western interference, managing domestic and regional narratives around the withdrawals. JNIM, meanwhile, is offering surrendering soldiers financial incentives and safe treatment, projecting restraint toward civilians. Both sides are contesting legitimacy as much as terrain. If Russia and FAMa can stabilise the central regions and hold the Niger River line, they retain a viable strategic footing. Overextension remains the primary risk.

Sources
Available upon request

TWEET OF THE DAY

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(May 3, 1979): Margaret Thatcher, the leader of the Conservative Party, was elected British prime minister, becoming the first woman in Europe to hold that post. She went on to become the longest continuously serving British premier since 1827.