THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

It’s another packed day in geopolitics: from a dramatic U.S.-backed raid that killed Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes in Mexico, to fresh transatlantic trade tensions as the EU pushes back on new tariff threats from Donald Trump.

At the United Nations, António Guterres warned of a growing global “rule of force,” while thousands took to the streets of Lyon following the killing of activist Quentin Deranque. And in the Middle East, Washington and Tehran are heading back to the table for nuclear talks.

In today’s deep dive, with the death of El Mencho, we provide a summary of today's events, the rise and fall of Mexico's most wanted man and the history of his group - CJNG.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. Mexican military kills drug cartel boss in US-backed raid
The Mexican military has killed Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, the leader of the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), during a U.S.-backed raid in Tapalpa, Jalisco, marking one of the most significant blows yet against a major drug trafficking group. The operation, conducted with U.S. intelligence support as part of broader pressure to curb illicit drug flows triggered waves of retaliatory violence, including roadblocks and burning vehicles across several states. Claudia Sheinbaum praised the mission as a major victory in the fight against organized crime, though analysts warn the cartel’s deep structure could fuel continued instability.
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2. ‘A deal is a deal’: EU says it won’t accept increase in U.S. tariffs
The European Union has firmly said it will not accept any increase in U.S. tariffs beyond what was agreed in last year’s EU-U.S. trade deal, insisting that “a deal is a deal” after President Trump raised global import duties to 15 % following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that invalidated parts of his earlier tariff regime. The European Commission and EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič have demanded that Washington honour the terms of the August 2025 Joint Statement, which set a 15 % tariff ceiling on most European goods and included tariff reductions on some U.S. products, warning that unpredictable levies undermine confidence in transatlantic trade.
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3. UN Chief decries global rise of ‘rule of force’
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned at the opening of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva that human rights and the rule of law are under “full-scale attack” globally, with powerful actors increasingly relying on force rather than legal norms. He said the “rule of force” is displacing established legal standards in conflicts from Sudan to Gaza and Ukraine, stressing that abuses and civilian suffering continue in plain sight.
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4. Thousands march in Lyon after killing of far-right activist Quentin Deranque
Thousands of people marched through the streets of Lyon, France, to pay tribute to 23-year-old far-right activist Quentin Deranque, who died last week after being beaten during clashes with alleged hard-left militants. Marchers carried flowers and banners reading “Justice for Quentin” and “The far-left kills,” and the demonstration took place under heavy police security with no major incidents reported, though authorities said they were investigating some Nazi salutes and racist insults captured on video.
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5. US and Iran to meet on Thursday for nuclear talks as fears of military conflict rise
The United States and Iran are scheduled to resume a third round of indirect nuclear talks on Thursday in Geneva, Oman’s foreign minister confirmed, as both sides seek to break a months-long deadlock over Tehran’s nuclear programme amid escalating regional tensions. The talks come against the backdrop of a significant U.S. military buildup in the Middle East and warnings from President Donald Trump that limited strikes could follow if diplomacy fails, while Tehran insists on its right to peaceful enrichment and prepares for all scenarios. Iranian officials say a detailed proposal is being finalised and there remains a “good chance” for a diplomatic outcome, even as fears of broader conflict persist.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

El Mencho: The Rise, The Power And Fall

Wider Context
Mexico’s most wanted man is dead, and the response was immediate.

Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as El Mencho, was captured in Tapalpa, Jalisco, during a planned special forces operation. According to Mexico’s Secretariat of National Defence, troops came under heavy fire. Four suspected CJNG members were killed at the scene. Three others were wounded, including Oseguera Cervantes, who later died while being transported to Mexico City for medical treatment. US intelligence reportedly assisted the operation.

Within hours, violence spread.

In Jalisco (particularly Guadalajara, Zapopan, Tonalá and Puerto Vallarta) vehicles were set ablaze and highways blocked. Narco-blockades were reported along major corridors linking Jalisco to Michoacán and Guanajuato. In Veracruz, armed groups attempted blockades along the Tuxpan–Mexico highway. Incidents were also reported in Tamaulipas, Guerrero and Nuevo León, prompting state authorities to activate Code Red alerts and suspend public transport. Commercial flights to Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta were cancelled. US authorities issued shelter-in-place warnings for citizens in multiple states. Tourist zones, including coastal resorts, saw heavy smoke plumes and security force deployments as panic spread.

El Mencho built the Jalisco New Generation Cartel into one of the most militarised criminal organisations in the hemisphere — known for armoured convoys, heavy weapons, coordinated urban disruption, and the 2015 downing of a military helicopter. His death marks one of the most consequential cartel decapitations in a decade.

The Rise of El Mencho And The Creation Of CJNG
Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” was a 59-year-old native of Michoacán whose criminal career spanned more than three decades. Convicted in the US in 1994 for heroin trafficking, he later rose rapidly in Mexico’s underworld. He faced multiple US indictments, a $15 million reward, and terrorist designation.

In less than a decade, the Jalisco Cartel – New Generation (CJNG) transformed from a splinter faction into one of the most powerful and violent drug trafficking organisations in the world. Born from the collapse of the Milenio Cartel around 2010, CJNG was initially financed and structured by Abigael González Valencia of Los Cuinis, alongside his brother-in-law El Mencho. What began as a regional power base in Jalisco rapidly expanded into a transnational enterprise.

The cartel’s rise was driven by control of strategic corridors. CJNG established a presence along Mexico’s Pacific coast and secured access to key border markets — particularly Tijuana, adjacent to California, and routes extending north toward Vancouver, Canada. US intelligence reporting indicates the organisation developed trafficking lines spanning nearly 10,000 kilometres of Pacific coastline, linking South American cocaine suppliers to US and Canadian markets, with extensions into Asia and Oceania.

Within Mexico, CJNG expanded into at least 14 states, using a combination of alliances and extreme violence to displace rivals such as the Sinaloa Cartel and the Beltrán Leyva Organisation. Maritime ports, high-capacity airports, and coastal routes became central nodes in its logistics chain.
Good source

The Militarisation of Cartels And Use Of Drones
CJNG evolved from a trafficking network into a territorial power, shifting from logistics to land control. This transformation intensified clashes with rivals and expanded revenue streams into extortion, kidnapping and localised criminal governance. Unlike earlier cartels focused purely on profit routes, CJNG and other new generations of existing cartels built a hierarchical, quasi-military structure to manage territory, manpower and resources. Sustained turf wars now resemble internal armed conflicts more than traditional organised crime.

Technology accelerated this shift: the group deploys explosive-capable drones, improvised explosive devices and reinforced vehicles. Drones, once used for surveillance, are now low-cost strike tools used against rivals and security forces alike. We also have proof that cartels have infiltrated the Ukrainian foreign legion to both gain combat experience but specifically prioritise understanding drone tactics. It also doesn’t help the Mexican authorities that their neighbour is the U.S. meaning there is a constant easily accessible stream of firepower for the cartels to purchase.

Read More On Infiltration In Ukraine

Los Zetas Comparison
If anyone remembers the Los Zetas cartel (at their height), the comparison is unavoidable. CJNG operates with a similar level of brutality and organisational discipline, functioning at times like a paramilitary force. What distinguishes CJNG, however, is its deliberate branding strategy and strong internal cohesion. The group has cultivated a unified identity, projecting strength through coordinated messaging, public displays of force, and tightly controlled leadership structure — giving it both psychological and operational advantages over rival cartels. What also separates CJNG from Los Zetas is the lack of internal fracturing, at least for now that is.

White House Comments
The United States quickly signalled support following the reported killing of Mexico’s most powerful cartel leader, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes. The White House confirmed that US intelligence assisted Mexican forces in the operation, with Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt describing El Mencho as a top target for both governments and a major trafficker of fentanyl into the United States. Shortly after news broke, President Donald Trump posted a cryptic message on Truth Social stating, “We’re winning too much, it’s just not fair.”

This is a major win for the leading political party in Mexico. As Trump continues to push for his ‘Donroe Doctrine’, Mexico has repeatedly been in his sights.

Sources
News/Journal sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.

TWEET OF THE DAY

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TODAY IN HISTORY

(February 23, 1540): Coronado leads expedition to find the Seven Cities of Cíbola

On this day in 1540, Francisco Vázquez de Coronado led an expedition north from Mexico in pursuit of the legendary Seven Cities of Cíbola. The group, consisting of more than a thousand men, explored much of the southwestern U.S. Smaller parties split from the main group and documented sights such as the Grand Canyon and the Colorado River. Cíbola, however, turned out to be nothing but a myth—corresponding, perhaps, to a Zuni Pueblo village between present-day Arizona and New Mexico where Coronado's men discovered the buildings were made of adobe, not gold.