THE BRIEFING 

Here’s what’s happening in geopolitics today.

Lots to unpack today with a mix of defence moves, regional power plays, and moments of reflection.

France has stepped up its military support for Ukraine, while the U.S. expands its naval reach in South America in what officials call a “counter-illicit” mission. In Asia, Thailand is mourning the death of its beloved Queen Mother Sirikit, and Madagascar’s political scene has taken another dramatic turn.

In today’s deep dive we provide fresh updates on the Pokrovsk front, retreats, encirclements, overall extremely catastrophic for Ukraine.

THE LAST 24 HOURS IN GEOPOLITICS 

1. France to supply Ukraine with additional Aster missiles & Mirage jets
France has pledged to supply Aster missiles along with new Mirage 2000 fighter jets to Ukraine in the coming days, French President Emmanuel Macron said during a speech in London. These moves aim to strengthen Ukraine’s air-defence and aerial strike capabilities amid the ongoing conflict with Russia, as Kyiv faces increasing pressure to defend its skies and infrastructure. While details on numbers and delivery timelines remain limited, the announcement signals France’s increasing role in bolstering Ukraine’s long-term military resilience.
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2. US to escalate military presence in South Amerca with aircraft carrier group
The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier strike group has been ordered by the U.S. Department of Defense to deploy to waters off South America in what the Pentagon describes as a major escalation of military presence in the region. The move aims to bolster U.S. capacity to “detect, monitor, and disrupt illicit actors and activities” in the hemisphere, especially amid tensions with Venezuela and enhanced drug-trafficking enforcement efforts.
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3. Madagascar strips ousted President Rajoelina of Citizenship
Andry Rajoelina, the ousted president of Madagascar, has been stripped of his Malagasy citizenship by the new military-led government, following mass protests and an impeachment vote. The move marks a dramatic escalation in Madagascar’s political crisis—raising serious questions about legal precedent, dual nationality issues, and the future governance of the island nation.
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4. Thailand’s Queen Mother Sirikit dies aged 93
Queen Mother Sirikit of Thailand passed away at the age of 93 on October 24 after developing a blood infection, the Thai Royal Household Bureau announced. Known for her longstanding work in rural development, traditional crafts and environmental protection, she won widespread admiration both at home and abroad. The government has declared a year-long period of mourning and flags will fly at half-mast for a month, reflecting her significance as a national figure.
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5. US strike against alleged drug vessel in Caribbean kills six
The Trump administration has carried out a strike in the Caribbean against a vessel it labelled an alleged drug-trafficking boat, killing six people onboard, according to U.S. Department of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The overnight operation, said to be the first conducted at night in this campaign, was conducted under the banner of countering “narco-terrorist” networks and occurred amidst a growing U.S. military buildup in the region. The strike has sparked legal and diplomatic concerns, with lawmakers and human-rights observers questioning the disclosure of evidence and whether such actions fit within international law.
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DAILY DEEP DIVE

POKROVSK SITUATION - “BEYOND CATASTROPHIC”

Tough Decisions
It’s one of those moments where we have to ask how much political influence is affecting military decisions. Many Ukrainian soldiers and pro-Ukrainian analysts have criticised the role of Syrskyi for his often “last stand, no retreat” approach to defensive battles. Bakhmut and Avdiivka serve as clear examples: in Bakhmut, men were sent into poorly planned counter-attacks resembling 20th-century Soviet-style assaults, while in Avdiivka, the withdrawal came too late, with escape routes already under fire control—costing countless lives. Now, the discussion is whether history is repeating itself in Pokrovsk.

Ukrainska Pravda reports that the situation in Pokrovsk is beyond critical. At least 250 Russian troops are confirmed inside the city, engaging in street-to-street combat and targeting Ukrainian drone, artillery, and anti-tank operators. Ukrainian positions are under constant FPV drone surveillance, forcing soldiers to walk 10–15 km through mined, drone-patrolled terrain to deliver ammunition and supplies. Infantry units are isolated from command, unable to evacuate the wounded, and suffering daily casualties. Some Ukrainian positions reportedly exist only on maps, either destroyed or abandoned due to the lack of manpower.

As for the 250 Russian troops, one of the main reasons they’re having success with DRG units is that most high-rise buildings in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad are still standing, providing endless hiding spots for small groups to operate and set up ambushes. Crucially, Russian forces have fire control over all entrances to the city and are actively targeting Ukrainian FPV operators. This is likely the work of Russia’s Rubicon Group, which specialises in drone warfare and has been active on this front. With units left unrotated and wounded for up to four months, and command only heard faintly over the radio, one must ask: at what point does Ukrainian command decide it’s not worth losing more men over this city?

Partial Withdrawal.
We are now witnessing the withdrawal of troops from the northern and southern fronts of Myrnohrad. This could mark the beginning of a series of tactical retreats out of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket. Russian troops have seized most of Mine 5/6 in the city’s south. From the north, Russian units have taken full control of the Kapitalna Mine and nearby ventilation shafts. Over the past two days, they have also advanced into the first streets of the Novator microdistrict and District 8. But if just now  troops from Myrnohrad are retreating now, is it not already too late? To make matters worse, Russian forces have captured the town of Rodynske, positioning themselves just over two kilometres from the main Ukrainian supply and retreat route to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. FPV coverage is one concern, but with Rodynske secured, Russian units will soon begin infiltrating the northern front of Pokrovsk as well as the remaining entrances. Time is not on Ukraine’s side. However, while Russian troops are spread throughout the city, there has not yet been full consolidation. We can see by the  reports that Russian troops are targeting Ukrainian drone, artillery, and anti-tank operators. This suggests the main thrust has not yet begun, as they aim to eliminate support assets first, hinting that armour units may soon follow, much like we’ve seen in the Dobropillya salient.

Ukraine must secure whatever remains of the narrow entrances before it is too late. Ukrainian sources on the ground describe the southern and, most critically, the western sectors as “beyond catastrophic”. To make matters worse, Ukraine has failed to dislodge Russian forces from the Dobropillya salient. Instead, it has tied down crucial units in that fight—forces that are now desperately needed to resist the Russian pincers closing around Pokrovsk.

If Pokrovsk falls soon, expect intensified attacks on Lyman and Kostiantynivka, as Russia will likely aim to eliminate those strongholds before expanding further northwest from Pokrovsk. Another possible move would be a renewed thrust through the Dobropillya salient to cut the highway linking Kramatorsk and Sloviansk to Dobropillya.

Sources:
Sources available upon request, not shown to maintain visual integrity of page.
Specific source: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/10/24/8004333/

TWEET OF THE DAY

Interesting…

TODAY IN HISTORY

(October 25, 1415): English triumph at Agincourt

On this day in 1415, the English army, led by Henry V, scored a decisive victory over the French at the Battle of Agincourt during the Hundred Years' War, paving the way for further English conquests and successes.